North Korea’s first missile test over Japan after five years was responded to by the United States (USA), South Korea, and Japan with many reprimands and joint exercise moves.[1] But all these answers did not deter the Pyongyang Government; on the contrary, it has led North Korea to make tougher moves.
As it will be remembered, on October 4, 2022, US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made a phone call for 25 minutes, after which Biden described Pyongyang’s missile test as a serious and imminent threat to Japan’s security and as a serious challenge.[2]
“The United States and Japan will implement their immediate and long-term responses in coordination with both the international community and South Korea,” the White House said in a statement.[3] After the meeting, Kishida said, “we want to send a serious and harsh message to North Korea, along with the United Nations (UN) approaches.”[4] It is unclear how the USA, Japan, and South Korea will respond to North Korea’s nuclear tests, which United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Antonio Guterres calls “reckless activities,” and what steps the UN will take.[5]
The Pyongyang administration has faced harsh sanctions from the UN Security Council (UNSC) at various times due to its nuclear programs and tests. However, in the face of these sanctions, it was able to establish a balance with the support of Moscow and Beijing. However, the current situation is different from the past. Because it is very difficult for North Korea to get support from Russia due to the war in Ukraine and from China due to the Taiwan Crisis. US President Biden, on the other hand, is busy with issues such as the Ukraine War, inflation, and midterm elections. It is therefore unlikely that North Korea’s nuclear tests will become a priority for Washington. As a result, it can be said that North Korea is alone in the international arena in terms of acquiring both allies and enemies, and its actions only have a regional effect.
Washington tries to deter North Korea by making military alliances with its allies; it also resorts to diplomatic means to rein in Pyongyang’s nuclear program. As a matter of fact, on September 9, 2022, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated that the USA does not have any hostile intentions towards North Korea and that Washington is seeking diplomatic solutions with Pyongyang.[6] Despite this, Pyongyang does not hesitate to take steps that will endanger the stability of the region.
On the other hand, Tokyo is one of the regional capitals that are disturbed by North Korea’s missile tests. Because in the last attempt, Japan became a target. In this context, Defense Minister of Japan Yasukazu Hamada said that the missile is a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile called Hwasong-12 and has a range of 4,600 km.[7] This makes the current test the longest-range test a North Korean missile has ever traveled in a standard orbit. Because in the past, Pyongyang’s long-range nuclear missile tests were generally carried out using high orbits so that they would not fly over neighboring countries. However, the fact that the final test is carried out by targeting Japan, albeit implicitly, shows that tests are not deterrent for North Korea and also, they are being provocative.
North Korea has conducted more than twenty tests involving more than forty missiles so far this year.[8] However, the unannounced launch over Japan is a much harder and more serious move than other tests involving shorter-range missiles and not targeting any country, both in terms of endangering the people of the country and the use of a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile. This situation reveals how much North Korea can raise the threat level and that the moves against Pyongyang are far from deterring the Kim administration.
At the same time, North Korea’s latest nuclear moves are not a surprise or an unexpected event. Indeed, in January 2021, in a statement ahead of the 8th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea revealed its intention to produce and test advanced new weapons, including smaller tactical nuclear bombs, longer-range, solid-fuel and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and weapons that can carry multiple warheads.[9] Later, North Korea started to test intercontinental ballistic missiles and the new components it produced. This situation gave a clue that Pyongyang would accelerate its trials when it had the opportunity and the environment was suitable. The Kim administration seized this opportunity due to the internal problems of the USA, the Ukraine War, the Taiwan Crisis, and the UNSC’s lack of consolidation. The current nuclear tests and their successes are therefore not surprising.
In addition to all these, that situation shows that North Korea did not try to attract the attention of the USA and that it was working on the goals of the Labor Party in the 8th Congress, regardless of the stance of the international community.
Strong messages for the United States and its allies can create a sense of unity; however, it does not seem possible to militarily deter North Korea from continuing its nuclear tests. After the test carried out by Pyongyang over Japan, South Korea, and the USA hit the fake targets in the Sea of Japan with surface-to-surface missiles, the armies of both South Korea and Japan held a joint air exercise with the USA.[10] Later, the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan was deployed to the waters east of the Korean Peninsula.[11] Considering the past precedents, it can be expected that North Korea will perceive all these actions as a rehearsal for the occupation and feels more provocation. In other words, North Korea will continue to test the activities of Washington and its allies.
As a result, it does not seem possible for any move or discourse of the West to deter North Korea. Especially as the West’s preoccupation with different crisis areas continues, it can be predicted that North Korea will continue to benefit from this gap.
[1] “U.S., Japanese Fighter Jets Carry Out Drills After North Korea Missile Launch”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-japanese-fighter-jets-carry-out-drills-after-north-korea-missile-launch-2022-10-04/, (Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).
[2] “Kishida, Biden to Boost Japan-U.S. Deterrence Over North Korea Launch”, Kyodo News, https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/10/0ffb6afebdd0-urgent-kishida-biden-to-hold-phone-talks-tues-over-n-korea-missile-source.html?phrase=entry%20ban%20&words=, (Date of Accession: 05.10.2022).
[3] “Biden, Kishida ‘Strongly’ Condemn North Korea Missile Test That Overflew Japan”, Ani News, https://www.aninews.in/news/world/us/biden-kishida-strongly-condemn-north-korea-missile-test-that-overflew-japan20221005044918/, (Date of Accession: 05.10.2022).
[4] “Kishida, Biden Eye Stronger Deterrence After Missile Launch”, The Asahi Shimbun https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14735420, (Date of Accession: 05.10.2022).
[5] “China, Russia at Odds with US over UN Meeting on North Korea”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/northkorea-missiles-un-idAFKBN2QZ1I7, (Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).
[6] “U.S. Seeks Diplomacy with North Korea, White House Says”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/us-seeks-diplomacy-with-north-korea-white-house-says-2022-09-09/, (Date of Accession: 04.09.2022).
[7] “North Korea Fires Ballistic Missile over Japan for First Time Since 2017”, Japan Times, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/10/04/national/north-k, (Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).
[8] “North Korea’s Arsenal Has Grown Rapidly. Here’s What’s in It”, NY Times, https://www.nytimes.com/article/north-korea-arsenal-nukes.html, (Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).
[9] “Kim Jong Un Declares North Korea Will Advance Nuclear Capabilities”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2021/01/kim-jong-un-declares-north-korea-will-advance-nuclear-capabilities/, (Date of Accession: 12.01.2022).
[10] “US Warships, With South Korea and Japan, Train to Shoot Down North Korean Missiles”, ABC News, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-warships-south-korea-japan-train-shoot-north/story?id=91109679, (Date of Accession: 07.10.2022).
[11] “US To Redeploy Nuclear-Powered Aircraf Carrier in South Korean Waters”, Anadolu Agency, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/us-to-redeploy-nuclear-powered-aircraft-carrier-in-south-korean-waters/2702821, (Date of Accession: 05.10.2022).
