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Cooperation of Xi and Putin under the Shadow of the Ukrainian War

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The Ukraine War, did not weaken the West, and so did not weaken the United States (US) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), but contrary to this, it strengthened the Western alliance. While Chinese President Xi Jinping is preparing to take permission from office for the third term from the Chinese Communist Party Congress to be held on October 16, 2022; The current situation in Russia may serve as a warning to Jinping.

The fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin could not achieve the desired results in Ukraine and the tacit acceptance of the failures in the field with the partial mobilization decision he announced caused China to reconsider its strategic cooperation with Russia.[1] As the Moscow administration’s success in the Ukraine War becomes more difficult, Beijing considers that Russia’s losses, with which it has an “unlimited partnership” relationship, are damaging to the rise of China.

At the same time, Putin is making nuclear threats. While many analysts and strategists argue that Putin is bluffing and cannot resort to nuclear power, Jinping also considers the worst-case scenario. After all, Russia’s military doctrine justifies the use of nuclear power if the country’s territorial integrity is threatened. Putin has also made statements stating that if Russia’s territorial integrity is endangered, they will use nuclear power.[2]

At the same time, Russia; as a result of the referendums in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, annexed the regions in violation of international law. In this context, Putin declared that he approved the “decision to join Russia” of the relevant regions.[3] In this case, Ukraine’s attacks to recapture those regions may constitute a pretext for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons, in line with Putin’s statements. Such a possibility is enough for Jinping to consider the worst-case scenario.

Jinping, on the other hand, includes more peaceful discourses in China’s foreign policy and tries to prevent a possible Third World War. A possible nuclear attack by Russia on Ukraine is a possibility that could cast a shadow over Jinping’s third term, as it would mean the first use of nuclear weapons after the US dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

Xi and Putin met at the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February 2022 to sign the Sino-Russian Cooperation Agreement.[4] At the first stage of this meeting, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia may have seemed rational to Jinping, since the process would weaken the US and NATO, and it might divert the attention of the US and the West from China. However, the resistance put forward by Ukraine, and therefore the course of the war has led to a change in this perception. The President of China also revealed his dissatisfaction with Russia’s failure at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Leaders’ Summit held in Samarkand, the ancient city of Uzbekistan, on September 15-16, 2022. Therefore, the Russian leader stated that he understood the Beijing administration’s concerns about the Ukraine War.[5]

Despite expressing that he cares about China’s concerns, Putin decided to declare partial mobilization on September 21, 2022, and called 300,000 reserve soldiers to duty.[6] However, this situation caused serious protests in Russia and about 200,000 Russian citizens fled abroad.[7] For this reason, the mobilization move could not prevent Russia’s losses in the field. Moreover, the prominence of the tendency to escalate the war further deepened China’s concerns.

As mentioned above, Beijing thought that the war, and especially a quick victory by Russia, would weaken the West and NATO. However, the situation on the ground has largely repaired the crack in Trans-Atlantic relations, and the sense of togetherness within NATO has strengthened, while the USA has become the most profitable actor. Thus, the USA had the opportunity to put the European pillar of its global hegemony on solid ground.

Moreover, even Sweden and Finland, which stand out with their neutrality policies, have applied for NATO membership.[8] On the other hand, it was seen that Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea supported the Ukraine policy of the West. In other words, the war did not make it easier for China to challenge American hegemony; on the contrary, it has made it difficult even in the regional equation. Therefore, at this point, Beijing began to question its relations with Moscow.

Based on all this information, it can be said that the Beijing administration has evaluated the possible nuclear war scenario to consider all possibilities. Because, considering the statements of US President Joe Biden stating that such a war would have very serious consequences[9], although he did not give details, it can be predicted that the international economic and military security environment will become fragile and the pressure of sanctions on Russia will increase, leading to deterioration in global supply chains. In short, Moscow’s use of its nuclear card within the framework of the claim of “defending” the lands it has annexed may cause developments that will put the whole world, especially China, into difficulties.

At the same time, Russia’s annexations may harm the “One China” policy, which is accepted by almost the whole world. If the Beijing administration, which strongly defends the principle of territorial integrity, does not oppose this action of Moscow, remains silent, and accepts it, it may cast a shadow over its consistency. Thus, China’s stance in the Ukraine War could lead to the kind of political and economic disintegration that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. This worries the Jinping administration at least as much as the risk of nuclear war. As a result, all these developments push Beijing to question its relations with Moscow. This was revealed at the SCO Samarkand Summit.


[1] “Putin Announces Partial Mobilization and Threatens Nuclear Retaliation in Escalation of Ukraine War”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/21/putin-announces-partial-mobilisation-in-russia-in-escalation-of-ukraine-war, (Date of Accession: 22.09.2022).

[2] “Putin’s ‘Incredibly Dangerous’ Nuclear Threats Raise the Risk of an Unprecedented Disaster”, CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/23/russia-ukraine-war-putins-nuclear-threats-raise-the-risk-of-disaster.html, (Date of Accession: 23.09.2022).

[3] Occupied Regions of Ukraine Vote to Join Russia in Staged Referendums”, NPR, https://www.npr.org/2022/09/27/1125322026/russia-ukraine-referendums, (Date of Accession: 27.09.2022).

[4] Eva Dou, “What is – and isn’t – in the join statement from Putin and Xi”, Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/04/russia-china-xi-putin-summit-statement-beijing/, (Date of Accession: 27.09.2022).

[5] “Putin-Xi Talks: Russia Leader Reveals China’s ‘Concern’ over Ukraine”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62912892, (Date of Accession: 15.09.2022).

[6] “Putin Declares Partial Military Mobilization in Russia, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/putin-declares-partial-military-mobilization-in-russia/2690626, (Date of Accession: 21.09.2022).

[7] “Over 200,000 Russians Flee to Kazakhstan since Partial Mobilization: Kazakh Official”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/over-200-000-russians-flee-to-kazakhstan-since-partial-mobilization-kazakh-official/2702289, (Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).

[8] “Sweden and Finland’s Journey from Neutral to NATO”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61397478, (Date of Accession: 29.08.2022).

[9] “Ukraine War: Biden Warns Putin not to Use Tactical Nuclear Weapons”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62936643, (Date of Accession: 17.09.2022).

Zeki Talustan GÜLTEN
Zeki Talustan GÜLTEN
Zeki Talustan Gülten graduated from Yalova University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of International Relations in 2021 with his graduation thesis titled "American Foreign Policy" and from Anadolu University, Open Education Faculty, Department of Foreign Trade in 2023. Gülten, who is currently pursuing her Master's Degree with Thesis at Marmara University Institute of Social Sciences, Department of International Relations, was a student at the Faculty of International and Political Studies at Lodz University for a semester within the framework of the Erasmus+ program during her undergraduate education. Working as an Asia-Pacific Research Assistant at ANKASAM, Gülten's main areas of interest are American Foreign Policy, Asia-Pacific and International Law. Gülten is fluent in English.