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Journalist Gordan Stošević: “Future of the Foreign Policy of Bulgaria is Dependent on Dynamics of Internal Affairs and the Establishment of a Stable Government.”

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In the last one and a half years, the third general elections were held in Bulgaria on October 2, 2022. Since the voter turnout was quite low, and the election results showed that any political party could form a government on its own, the possibilities of a coalition started to be discussed. However, the ideological differences between the political parties there cause the renewal of the elections again in February 2023.

In that sense, the Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies (ANKASAM), presents the views of Journalist Gordan Stošević, to evaluate the election results in Bulgaria and possible coalition governments, and internal and foreign affairs of Sofia.

  1. After the October 2 elections, attempts to form a government has begun in Bulgaria. Do you think that the coalition talks will yield any results in the coming days? Which party will the Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) probably form a coalition with?

As Boyko Borisov himself said, his party is ready for open negotiations with all parties after receiving a mandate from President Rumen Radev to form a new government because the country is expecting a hard winter. Now, which parties are ready to form a government with GERB-SDS is questionable and ungrateful to forecast, bearing in mind everything that happened after the previous elections when all negotiations failed due to major differences between the parties that passed the census. What spears will break is the position towards the war in Ukraine and the sending of military aid, which Bulgaria must take firmly, as well as energy diversification in the future. All cards are open on the negotiating table and all outcomes are possible.

  1. The Change Continues Party under the leadership of Kirill Petkov expressed that they did not consider a coalition with GERB. Do you think that there are any possibilities for Petkov to form a government without GERB, considering that he could not get a vote of confidence?

Very difficult considering that only Hristo Ivanov’s “Democratic Bulgaria” and possibly BSP could enter that government. Bearing in mind that Kiril Petkov and Asen Vasilev promised that they would never form a coalition with GERB-SDS and DPS. While on the other hand, we have the far-right nationalist pro-Russian party in the rise “Revival” of Kostadin Kostadinov, as well as the party “Bulgarian Rise” of Stefan Janev. The former official prime minister and defense minister was sacked by Kiril Petkov after he called the Russian invasion a “special military operation”. Something similar recently happened to the Romanian Minister of Defense, who resigned from that position due to disagreements with the state leadership, inviting Ukraine to the negotiating table with Russia. An attitude that does not correspond with the official policy of Bucharest towards the war in Ukraine. This means that the chances are higher that GERB-SDS will form a new government with DPS and BSP, but also the new party of Stefan Janev, the nationalist party of Kostadin Kostadinov, and even the party “Democratic Bulgaria” of Hristo Ivanov, who is considered an exclusively pro-European politician like himself Kiril Petkov. It seems that this time Kiril Petkov is completely delegitimized without any political credibility to form a new government.

  1. What do you think is related to the increasing number of voters going to the polls in Bulgaria? How does political instability affect Bulgarians?

As for voter turnout, I would rather say that the turnout of only 37% was catastrophic and is the result of Bulgarian citizens’ disillusionment with the political elite, as the results have shown. When it comes to voting in the diaspora, there was also not a high turnout, so this time DPS achieved the best result of only 54,520 votes (31.8%), which is much less than last year’s 82,804 votes. However, the biggest loser in these elections was the “There İs Such A People” party of the famous showman Slavi Trifonov, which won a disastrous 8,131 votes (4.74%) against 60,357 votes (35.64%) in last year’s elections. Another influencing factor was the way of voting in electronic form, instead of using paper ballots. Therefore, GERB-SDS and BSP had a big objection to this way of voting, for which they said that they lost more than half a million votes, of which BSP had 150,000 votes. They (BSP) with the far-right nationalist party “Revival” still insist on changing the electoral law and introducing combined voting, where voters can choose whether to vote electronically or via physical paper ballots. The only question is whether this initiative will pass in parliament.

  1. What will Bulgaria’s future look like if a government is not formed in the process? Can you assess it in both the foreign policy context and the domestic policy context?

The future of Bulgaria’s foreign policy, as well as its internal policy, largely depends on the formation of a stable government. Not only because of the positioning within the Euro-Atlantic camp regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war but also because of the economic situation in the world after the pandemic, the energy crisis in Europe, as well as the bilateral dispute with its neighbor North Macedonia on its way to the EU. Therefore, these days the Contact Group, led by ex-President Rosen Plevneliev and ex-Minister of Foreign Affairs Solomon Passy, ​​presented a document in the form of a draft declaration that will be sent to the Parliament with the hope that it will be discussed at the session in the plenary hall. In this name, this experienced political duo of the Contact Group invited all parties that won entry into the National Assembly, except for the far-right “Revival”, however, BSP, “Democratic Bulgaria” and “We continue to change” refused the meeting. The general conclusion of the Contact Group is that after these elections the Euro-Atlantic parties have a majority in the 48th National Assembly, but that they are fiercely opposed to each other, and that it is in the common interest to find points of contact for the formation of a government that is of crucial importance for the country in this extremely difficult at a time when Bulgaria has to face great challenges.

In this direction, and accordance with the new geopolitical implications in the world, the text of the declaration calls for:

  • Making efforts for the return of parliamentarians and the formation of a regular government to avoid the risk of authoritarian rule;
  • Adoption of the draft law on the Recovery Plan; • Anti-corruption measures such as, for example, transparency of all public procurements and tenders;
  • Judicial and legal reform with a constitutional majority based on an institutional rather than a subjective approach;
  • Attempts to change the constitutional model and run a presidential republic are condemned, as this leads to the risk of authoritarian rule;
  • Deepening European integration as the sole guarantor of these values;
  • Entry into the Eurozone and the Schengen zone;
  • Approval of a second order for F-16 fighter jets to supplement the Air Force squadron;
  • Re-arming the Bulgarian army and working to fulfill obligations towards NATO;
  • Condemnation of Russian aggression against Ukraine and non-recognition of annexed Ukrainian territories;
  • Measures of cyber security, including against hybrid warfare.

However, Bulgaria faces a difficult task after several months of political crisis, marked by many scandals in which some names from the very political top of the country were involved. It remains to be seen in the next few days or weeks which party President Rumen Radev will hand the mandate to form the new government, knowing that Boyko Borisov’s GERB-SDS party won the most mandates.


Gordan Stošević:

Gordan Stošević is a writer, columnist, and an independent journalist and currently, he is editor-in-chief of the international website “Cry of the People.” For many years, he has written political analyses and columns, and he had done interviews with prominent social, political, and economic figures on the left political spectrum.

Sevinç İrem BALCI
Sevinç İrem BALCI
Sevinç İrem Balcı, Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Uluslararası İlişkiler bölümü mezunudur. İyi derecede İngilizce bilen Balcı, aynı zamanda Rusça ve Yunanca öğrenmektedir. Başlıca çalışma alanları Balkanlar ve Avrupa'dır.