The Russia-Ukraine War, which commenced on February 24, 2022,[1] has deeply shaken and impacted the international system and order. This war has led to the escalation of both far-right populist ideologies and leaders in Europe, as well as disagreements among European Union (EU) countries.
In this equation, Poland, which advocates for much more hawkish policies against Russia and takes a tough stance on this point, and Germany, which is the leader of Continental Europe and is also a very important economic actor in the EU, can be argued to be of critical importance. After all, Poland is the first country to increase its defense spending to 4% in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).[2] This is also the highest percentage among NATO member states.
At this juncture, it can be said that Warsaw is a very important actor in the current conjuncture.Poland is the fifth most populous country within the EU [3] and simultaneously the sixth-largest economy in the EU. [4] . Moreover, Poland is one of the countries with the highest concentration of far-right and populist politics within the EU [5] . Additionally, it’s known that the country’s economy has been rapidly growing
All of these factors point to a rivalry between Poland, the EU, and Germany. This is because Warsaw objects to the Brussels-centric European structure and advocates for a nation-state-based understanding of the state. Furthermore, Warsaw also disputes Berlin’s positioning as the “leader of the EU.” Indeed, the course of the Russia-Ukraine war, the energy crisis that the war has created on the global system and especially in Europe, [6] internal cracks within the EU, and situations such as the United States and the United Kingdom pursuing different foreign policy approaches than the EU are events that raise questions about Germany’s perceived leadership within the EU.
The European Union has imposed a variety of sanctions on Moscow, [7] including a proposed cap on oil prices. [8] However, these sanctions are also having a significant impact on the EU economy, particularly in Germany.
In this context, considering Poland’s increasing military power and Germany’s economy adversely affected by the war, despite the presence of conjunctural competition between the two states, it can be argued that Berlin particularly needs Warsaw to act in line with the European consciousness. Within this framework, Germany has likely put extending the deployment of Patriot missile defense systems in Poland on its agenda, probably until the end of the year. [9]
In conclusion, it can be argued that Poland’s growing defense concerns and increasing security concerns also benefit Germany in terms of arms trade. On the other hand, it can be said that German technology is also useful to Poland in terms of security concerns and that the two actors actually need each other in terms of economic-commercial relations.
[1] “February 24, 2023-It’s Now One Year Since Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Began”, Cable News Network World, https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-02-24-23/index.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.08.2023).
[2] “Poland to Spend 4% of GDP on Defence This Year, Highest Current Level in NATO”, Notes from Poland, https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/01/31/poland-to-spend-4-of-gdp-on-defence-this-year-highest-current-level-in-nato/, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.08.2023).
[3] “European Countries by Population (2023)”, World o Meter, https://www.worldometers.info/population/countries-in-europe-by-population/, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.08.2023).
[4] “The $16 Trillion European Union Economy”, Visual Capitalist, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/16-trillion-european-union-economy/, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.08.2023).
[5] “The Normalisation of Far-Right Politics in Poland”, Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2019/11/15/the-normalisation-of-far-right-politics-in-poland, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.08.2023).
[6] “Natural Gas Soars 700%, Becoming Driving Force in the New Cold War”, Bloomberg, https://shorturl.at/wyE47, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.08.2023).
[7] “EU Agrees to Set $60 Price Cap Level for Russian Oil Exports”, Bloomberg, https://shorturl.at/grMO1, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.08.2023).
[8] “Impact of EU Sanctions for European Companies in the Gulf”, Arabian Gulf Business Insight, https://shorturl.at/foswT, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.08.2023).
[9] “Berlin Offers to Extend Patriot Missile Deployment in Poland”, The Defense Post, https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/08/09/germany-patriot-deployment-poland/?expand_article=1, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.08.2023).
