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“Shanghai Nine” and “G-6” …

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You can tell me where that came from. You’re not wrong. We know that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) currently has eight members (Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, India and Pakistan). The “7 developed countries”, called G-7, consist of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Where did it the “G-6” and “Shanghai Nine”come from then?

Let me put it this way…

First of all, mathematically present trends give us such a de facto number in terms of these organizations. In other words, there is a possibility of an increase and a decrease in the numbers of members of these organizations. So if you wish, you can say, “the final situation on the East-West front.”

Because the latest developments once again point to the “Rising East” and “Collapsing West”. In other words, the roles are changing in the “union-leadership” point, which has made the West the West, and has pushed the East to the “jostled status” of the world for many years.

As the West began to lose both of these, Despite its misfortune the East is convening again, even if it is “conjunctural”. (I am going to skip over this issue as I am going to to write about conjunctural association later).

How’s that?  In chronological order … For example, while Shanghai is an organization that has been growing steadily since 1996, the G-7 is seen as an ongoing blood-losing organisation.

In more concrete terms, the Russian-Chinese duo which started within the framework of good faith steps in 1995, subsequently named “Shanghai five” with the participation of three Central Asian States neighboring to China later turned into the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization” with the membership of another Central Asian State Uzbekistan in 2001. Organization as of today, with its eight members, four associate members and six dialogue partners (Turkey is one of those) poses the view of the sustained upward trend.

A new SCO after “Qingdao Summit”?

The SCO, in which economic, political, security and cultural co-operation fields are beginning to receive effective results, by the expression of Chinese President Xi has become an important force at the point of improving global governance, encouraging joint development and supporting regional security.

Chinese President Xi, referring to the spirit of unity in SCO, draws a greater vision to the organization and uses the following expression: “ The Qingdao summit is a new departure point for us. Together, let us hoist the sail of the Shanghai Spirit, break waves and embark on a new voyage for our organization.”

In this context, Putin, who compares SCO and G7, referring to SCO passed G7 in terms of purchasing power parity said “ In terms of per capita income, the G7 countries are richer, but the combined size of the SCO economies is bigger and their population is much bigger—half of the world’s population. SCO is ready to remain loyal to the generally accepted rules of international trade.” These statements are quite remarkable in that they are a call to watch the “open doors policy” at a time when the Western world, in particular the US, is signaling “inward closing politics.”

The message given by the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev at the SCO Summit is also remarkable. Stating that the negotiation process of Astana has been seen as an effective means of achieving comprehensive peace in Syria Nazarbayev reiterates that conflicts in Asia, Africa, the Near East, and in other “hot spots” must be solved in political ways, and in a sense, uploads a new mission to SCI. Considering Turkey’s dialogue partnership in SCO and Iran’s observer membership, actually another formation/power in the background of the Astana process, albeit indirectly, is showing itself…

So what does “Shanghai Nine” mean? It’s very simple! It points to the full membership of Iran, one of the four observer members. As a matter of fact, Russian President Putin in a meeting with Iranian President Rouhani once again reiterates Russia’s support for this membership to take place. (though how this membership situation serves Russia’s purpose, is a matter of debate in itself. I will, of course, make a big point at the first opportunity of conjunctance.)

The new address of reckoning in the Western: G-7

Thus, while these are in SCO, in other words, while they are in the East where paved the way for Turkey’s status of full membership as dialogue partnership, there’s a very different process in the West, in G-7. Namely…

The organization, which initially started with the idea to find a solution to the economic recession after the oil crisis in 1973, during the comprehensive negotiation process between France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, was named G-7 with the inclusion of Canada, later turned into G-8 with the membership of Russia in 2002. It transformed into a G-7 format again with the suspension of Russia’s membership in 2014 and de facto has taken the name of G-6, with French President Emmanuel Macron’s threatening to expel the US which pulled out of nuclear deal with Iran and is trying to bring in new customs taxes from the G7.

So the reckoning in the West seems to have begun to show itself in the G-7 after NATO. And here the German-French duo is the case of two countries trying to keep the US under control…

The meaning of the photo in G-7: the US against the US…

We have written many times in this corner if you remember. Gabriel, Germany’s former foreign minister, said in 2017 that the US was no longer the leader of the West. The German Foreign Minister Maas who replaced him announced on 12 May 2018 that the unilateral decision of the US to pull out from Iran’s nuclear deal “poisoned” the relationship between Berlin and Washington and would follow a tougher policy against Washington.

Maas signaled the crisis in G-7 with another statement on June 8. Foreign Minister Maas saying that Berlin would no longer remain silent about disputes with the US, has urged the European countries to cooperate more closely in the environment of a more complex relationship with Washington, and has expressed his gratitude for the idea of building the European Security Council.

Now Macron says the US that everybody goes its own way, and there’s a signature crisis in the G-7 … Obviously, this time on the Western Front things have changed a lot and it’s getting pretty fun.

The adventure is undoubtedly the “grumpy old man” Trump! “Cranky Woman” type Merkel and Macron with his teenager musatache should not be forgotten of course. Because together with Trump they create a splendid trio …

Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Born in 1969, Dörtyol-Hatay, Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin Erol graduated from Boğaziçi University (BU), Department of Political Science and International Relations in 1993. After completing his master's degree at BU in 1995, Erol was accepted to the PhD program at BU in the same year. After completing his PhD at Ankara University in 2005, Erol became an associate professor in the field of “International Relations” in 2009 and a professor in 2014. Erol worked at the Eurasian Center for Strategic Studies (ASAM) between 2000 and 2006 and and served as the General Coordinator of ASAM for a period. In 2009, he served as also Founding Chairman and Board Member of the Institute for Strategic Thinking (SDE). He is also the Founding President of the Center for International Strategy and Security Studies (USGAM) and the President of the International Relations Institute of the New Türkiye Strategic Research Center (YTSAM). Prof. Erol has also served as the Director of Gazi University Strategic Research Center (GAZISAM). In 2007, Prof. Erol received the “Turkish World Service Award” from the Writers and Artists Foundation of the Turkic World (TÜRKSAV), and has received numerous awards for his academic work and his activities in the media. Some of them can be listed as follows: 2013 “Print Media of the Year Award” by the Association of Contemporary Democrats, 2015 “APM 10th Year Service Award”, “2015 Press-Intellectual of the Year Award” by the Writers' Union of Türkiye (YTB), “2016 Volunteer Ambassadors Media Honor Award” by the Anatolian Village Guards and Martyrs' Families, “2016 Türkiye Honor Award” by the Yoruk Turkmen Federations. Prof. Erol has 15 book studies. The names of some of them are as follows: “The United States of Turks from Dream to Reality”, “Türkiye-EU Relations: Foreign Policy and Internal Structure Problems”, “The New Great Game in Eurasia”, “The Search for Strategy in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Search for Security in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Republic of Türkiye-Russian Federation Relations”, “The Cold Organization of Hot Peace: The New NATO”, “Theoretical Approaches in Foreign Policy Analysis: The Case of Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Crises and Crisis Management: Actors and Case Studies”, “Kazakhstan” and “Current Issues in International Relations”. Since 2002, Prof. Erol, who has carried out radio programs such as “Eurasia Agenda”, “Strategic Perspective”, “Global Perspective”, “Analysis”, “File”, “News Desk”, “The Other Side of the Agenda” on TRT Türkiye's voice and TRT Radio 1 (Ankara Radio), made the programs “Arayış” on TRT INT television between 2004-2007, “Beyond the Border” on Kanal A television between 2007-2010 and “Foreign Policy Agenda” on BBN TÜRK television in 2020-2021. Prof. Erol, whose foreign policy column “Arayış” was published in Milli Gazete between 2012-2018, is consulted for his expertise in numerous national and international media outlets such as television, radio, newspapers, news websites and magazines. Prof. Erol, who also taught at Gazi University Department of International Relations and Ankara University Latin American Studies Center (LAMER) between 2006-2018, has been continuing his academic career as a faculty member at Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University Department of International Relations since 2018. Since 2006, Prof. Erol has also taught in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Ufuk University. The main areas of interest and expertise of Prof. Erol and the titles of his courses at the undergraduate, master's and doctoral levels in this area are as follows: “Geopolitics”, “Security”, “Intelligence”, “Crisis Management”, “Current Issues in International Relations”, “Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Russian Foreign Policy”, “US Foreign Policy” and “Central Asia and South Asia”. Prof. Erol, whose articles-evaluations have been published in many journals and newspapers, has been editor of academic journals such as “Eurasia File”, “Strategic Analysis”, “Strategic Thinking”, “Gazi Regional Studies”, “The Journal of SSPS”, “Black Sea Studies”. He is currently in the editorial boards of “Regional Studies,” “International Crisis and Political Research,” “Gazi Academic View”, “Ege University Turkish World Surveys”, “Ankara International Social Sciences”, “Democracy Platform”. Prof. Erol, who has been working as the Founding President of the Ankara Center for Crisis and Political Studies (ANKASAM) since 2016, is married and has three children.