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“Terms of Ceding” from the US to Turkey

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The title may be very ambitious and eerie to many of you but one does not need a guide when the village is in sight. As I have repeatedly underlined in previous articles, the US is systematically trying to put Turkey into an “enemy/adversary” category so to not become an “associate” that invades its allies. This “hostile intent” lies under the persistent escalation of the crisis and bringing to a “deadlock”.

In this context, it can not be explained in any other way that the number of the conditions laid down by the pastor Brunson in the crisis in the present day is increased and it is “blackmailed”, or even offering them as a “ceding terms”. What do I mean?

A few days ago, there were news and comments in the press that included a claim that “8 conditions for the US-NATO ally Turkey to review sanctions while there are just 3 conditions to Iran draws attention”. I am sure that it hasn’t been escaped from many of yours’ notice. For our readers who have escaped from attention, I hereby state that eight conditions, just as in the press:

Urgent release of 20 agents involved in the July 15 coup attempt, including Pastor Brunson. The US particularly for Brunson’s release, gave time to Ankara until Wednesday (August 15th).

Turkey’s impose of comprehensive embargo on Iran.

Not purchasing S400 from Russia.

Ankara’s review of the Jerusalem policy.

To stop looking for natural gas and oil around the Cyprus Island.

Consent to the penalty for Halkbank.

To close the file that requests the extradition of Fetullah Gülen.

Granting of permits to American companies in critical mines owned by Turkey.

Now we should ask; Are these negotiation conditions? It can be just described as The Armistice of Mudros clauses that is “ceding and occupation clauses” towards the “second Sevres Treaty”. There are just missing the famous articles 7 and 24 which are of great importance in terms of implementing the Sykes-Picot project of that period that is known as the Great Middle East Project (GMEP) today.

In the meantime, I want to draw your attention by the way; The US brings these 8 terms to the Turkish delegation on August 10, the date of the signing of Sevres. How a “Man” can give more “message”! If these are not allegations, then the situation is really grave. It means that Turkey is going to a “Second War of Independence” or being “forced” to it.

Why does the US want to surrender Turkey?

The answer is very clear: The US has clearly understood that it cannot persuade Turkey. It cannot cope with the current administration in Turkey. Aside from accepting his demands, it can’t even tolerate its presence. Because the US has not got accustomed to anything like that; at least in the case of Turkey. For this reason, the US is in a deep despair and fierce rage. So, these indigestion and desperation lie under the threat of President Trump’s threats to Turkey.

In this context, the fundamental goal of the US is to liquidate the willpower that put the Turkey in a radical change-transformation process in domestic and foreign policy. In other words, the US, on the one hand, wants to convert new domestic politics/will back into old codes; on the other hand, it wants to end Turkey’s foreign policy understanding and implementation, which it has accepted as a challenge and an implicit struggle beyond his control. In short, after the old days…

Critical dates in the crisis…

We wrote here the date of the actual breaking of the ropes between Turkey and the US; November 16, 2001. Since then, Turkey has openly declared its place in the new world order to the US. And it has announced that it would perform it as a trio of “Turkey-Russia-Iran” with a symposium titled “How to Create a peace belt around Turkey”, held on March 7, 2002. That’s why these two dates are very important in the beginning of the US operations against Turkey, and since then the US is at war with Turkey.

Another important date in this context is May 2013. As a matter of fact, the US that was unable to impose its desire to Turkey has finished the negotiations early. It will be understood later why the US has finished early. The US has been setting up plans like Gezi Park Protests, the coup in Egypt, 17-25 December etc.

Another important point that should not be overlooked here is: No operation can be planned in a few days, weeks, months, especially when considering the “Gezi Park Protests” and the military coup in Egypt. This shows us that: the US was actually predicting Turkey’s response and was busy preparing for A, B, C plans. (Meanwhile, it had not been quite understandable what was happened in May 2013, but when looking at these 8 conditions it can easily be guessed what the US wanted from Turkey in May 2013).

We see that this time the US is referring to a “semi-direct” ways after it couldn’t persuade Turkey in its desires. This tool; usually had the results the US wanted until that date: Coup attempt. It tried it on the night of July 15 but paid a heavy price for underestimating the power in front of it. It seems Pastor Brunson has confessed.

The operation of the rescue of NATO member from “Indirect Occupation” …

Therefore, the US is acting in the psychology of being caught red-handed and is aware that relations with Turkey is not going to be the same; at least with the current administration. So, there is only one option in front of it: occupation. Therefore, conditions of the US should be read as “Terms of Ceding” brought in front of Ankara before the “actual occupation”. And the US is planning to carry out this occupation not alone, but under the name of a “NATO rescue operation” to save its ally which is under “indirect occupation”. Let us remind you once again that NATO has declared Turkey a “risky” country on the night of July 15th.

What should do Turkey?

It is impossible to accept the terms imposed by the US to Turkey. Acceptance of these terms will be equivalent to the surrender of Turkey. The US knows it and wants what is not possible. For this reason, Turkey should be prepared for the worst-case scenario and should declare it to its addressee. This should be done not alone but with its allies.

In the meantime, Ankara should freeze the negotiation process until the US has announced that it has given up all these conditions. Because of these pursuits can be regarded as a weakness of Turkey in the world public opinion, especially including the Turkish public opinion. In fact, the “uncompromising attitude” that the US administration is involved in also makes it feel.

More importantly; under these circumstances, it seems that other tools are going to replace the diplomacy. Turkey can show that it is ready by taking this delegation back.

Let’s see who demands conditions then!

Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Born in 1969, Dörtyol-Hatay, Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin Erol graduated from Boğaziçi University (BU), Department of Political Science and International Relations in 1993. After completing his master's degree at BU in 1995, Erol was accepted to the PhD program at BU in the same year. After completing his PhD at Ankara University in 2005, Erol became an associate professor in the field of “International Relations” in 2009 and a professor in 2014. Erol worked at the Eurasian Center for Strategic Studies (ASAM) between 2000 and 2006 and and served as the General Coordinator of ASAM for a period. In 2009, he served as also Founding Chairman and Board Member of the Institute for Strategic Thinking (SDE). He is also the Founding President of the Center for International Strategy and Security Studies (USGAM) and the President of the International Relations Institute of the New Türkiye Strategic Research Center (YTSAM). Prof. Erol has also served as the Director of Gazi University Strategic Research Center (GAZISAM). In 2007, Prof. Erol received the “Turkish World Service Award” from the Writers and Artists Foundation of the Turkic World (TÜRKSAV), and has received numerous awards for his academic work and his activities in the media. Some of them can be listed as follows: 2013 “Print Media of the Year Award” by the Association of Contemporary Democrats, 2015 “APM 10th Year Service Award”, “2015 Press-Intellectual of the Year Award” by the Writers' Union of Türkiye (YTB), “2016 Volunteer Ambassadors Media Honor Award” by the Anatolian Village Guards and Martyrs' Families, “2016 Türkiye Honor Award” by the Yoruk Turkmen Federations. Prof. Erol has 15 book studies. The names of some of them are as follows: “The United States of Turks from Dream to Reality”, “Türkiye-EU Relations: Foreign Policy and Internal Structure Problems”, “The New Great Game in Eurasia”, “The Search for Strategy in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Search for Security in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Republic of Türkiye-Russian Federation Relations”, “The Cold Organization of Hot Peace: The New NATO”, “Theoretical Approaches in Foreign Policy Analysis: The Case of Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Crises and Crisis Management: Actors and Case Studies”, “Kazakhstan” and “Current Issues in International Relations”. Since 2002, Prof. Erol, who has carried out radio programs such as “Eurasia Agenda”, “Strategic Perspective”, “Global Perspective”, “Analysis”, “File”, “News Desk”, “The Other Side of the Agenda” on TRT Türkiye's voice and TRT Radio 1 (Ankara Radio), made the programs “Arayış” on TRT INT television between 2004-2007, “Beyond the Border” on Kanal A television between 2007-2010 and “Foreign Policy Agenda” on BBN TÜRK television in 2020-2021. Prof. Erol, whose foreign policy column “Arayış” was published in Milli Gazete between 2012-2018, is consulted for his expertise in numerous national and international media outlets such as television, radio, newspapers, news websites and magazines. Prof. Erol, who also taught at Gazi University Department of International Relations and Ankara University Latin American Studies Center (LAMER) between 2006-2018, has been continuing his academic career as a faculty member at Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University Department of International Relations since 2018. Since 2006, Prof. Erol has also taught in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Ufuk University. The main areas of interest and expertise of Prof. Erol and the titles of his courses at the undergraduate, master's and doctoral levels in this area are as follows: “Geopolitics”, “Security”, “Intelligence”, “Crisis Management”, “Current Issues in International Relations”, “Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Russian Foreign Policy”, “US Foreign Policy” and “Central Asia and South Asia”. Prof. Erol, whose articles-evaluations have been published in many journals and newspapers, has been editor of academic journals such as “Eurasia File”, “Strategic Analysis”, “Strategic Thinking”, “Gazi Regional Studies”, “The Journal of SSPS”, “Black Sea Studies”. He is currently in the editorial boards of “Regional Studies,” “International Crisis and Political Research,” “Gazi Academic View”, “Ege University Turkish World Surveys”, “Ankara International Social Sciences”, “Democracy Platform”. Prof. Erol, who has been working as the Founding President of the Ankara Center for Crisis and Political Studies (ANKASAM) since 2016, is married and has three children.