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The Changing Geopolitics of Eurasia and the Return of the Great Game

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Beyond the ancient or modern chess called Timur or Tamerlane Chess, the practice of strategy that both expands the playing field and includes more actors in the game, the game that includes more options and situations, opportunities, and risks than other chess games, is being played in Central Asia, the heart of Eurasian geopolitics. Indeed, the establishment of a chessboard with more actors than other sub-regional systems in the international system is among the most concrete indicators of this. Another factor is that each actor tries to maintain a dynamic relationship with many actors. Finally, it should be noted that in this competition, more agendas, areas, and dynamics are blended than in other examples, and it is difficult to predict which moves are made against whom and with what strategic calculation.

Eurasia, which is at the forefront of the central struggle areas at the important thresholds of political history, has been the focus of global competition, especially during the periods when colonialism and imperialism occupied the agenda of international politics. In this context, although the process called “The Great Game” in the international relations literature, which refers to the struggle between the British Empire and the Russian Empire, has been completed, there is a more complex competition called the “New Great Game” today.

It can be argued that this new rivalry has witnessed much beyond the limited game, which had clear rules and clear options, which the two imperialist powers had previously carried out over imperial motivations. In this context, it is obvious that the number of competing actors in Central Asia in the heart of Eurasia, where the Great Game is being played today, has increased. The actors interested in the region and the competition for geopolitical influence in the region have moved beyond a situation where only certain power centers in the West and East are positioned against each other. On the one hand, in addition to Russia, which is the main actor of the Eastern World, China, India and even Pakistan are joining the process; on the other hand, the US, the gendarme of the West, as well as the UK, Germany and France are trying to gain a position in the game, albeit with varying levels of interest.

Another difference between today’s Great Game compared to the previous ones is that it is not a game consisting of states, which are the main players of the modern international system. As it is known, in the “First Great Game”, two great empires directly competed by their imperial interests and hegemonic goals. In the current situation, it is undeniable that there is a civilizational struggle in which various alliance systems and international organizations are involved, as well as the competition of states. To illustrate this point more clearly, while pursuing its own interests and strategic goals, Germany also seeks to protect the interests of the EU and thus the West. The US, together with NATO, devotes its energies to preserving the existence and leadership of Western Civilization. In the same way, China and Russia make the idealism of building a new global system based on the phenomenon of civilization a subject of this rivalry.

In the context of Central Asia, where there is a wide range of struggles ranging from energy to financial issues, from trade to environment and climate, and from military to political issues, the following are the issues that draw attention based on recent developments:

  • In the context of Germany’s Central Asian initiative, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visited the countries in the region.
  • Foreign Ministers of Central Asian states and the German Foreign Minister met in Poland as part of the OSCE Meeting.
  • At the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) held in Shanghai, one of the most important cities in China, the will of the 28 member states to unite on issues concerning the region, including Afghanistan, was put forward and it was decided to transform CICA into a full-fledged international organization.
  • China’s investments and credit support to Central Asian states under the Belt-Road Initiative continue.
  • A common will was developed by the actors to bring the 35 agreements and cooperation documents signed between Kazakhstan and France to a strategic level.

The most striking aspect of the developments mentioned above, and which has not been discussed before is the idea of transforming the said structure into an international organization and the concept of acting together in regional developments, including Afghanistan, at the CICA Summit in Shanghai. This shows that Beijing aims to become more influential in the region and limit Moscow’s influence through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as well as CICA. In addition, it is very important to act together in terms of regional developments and to include Afghanistan in these developments. Therefore, China signals that it will fight the West, especially the USA, and other non-state actors such as terrorist organizations.

As a result, it is very difficult to identify the actors, rules, options, and scenarios in the New Great Game. In this context, it can be predicted that the dynamic process taking place in Central Asia will reveal different equations.


Dr. Kadir Ertaç ÇELİK
Dr. Kadir Ertaç ÇELİK
ANKASAM International Relations Advisor Dr. Kadir Ertaç ÇELİK completed his bachelor's degree at Uludağ University, Department of International Relations, and his master's and PhD degrees at Gazi University, Institute of Social Sciences, Department of International Relations. Currently a faculty member at Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University, Department of International Relations, Çelik's main research interests are theories of international relations, American foreign policy, the Turkic world, security and strategy.