It’s been two years since July 15. However, when considering the sensitivity of the transition process and the dimension of internal and external reactions to it, the consequences still continue to preserve its place on the agenda. Hence the threat of a “second 15 July” still exists.
Under current conditions there remains the possibility of a new eventuation. This is due to the continued existence of conditions and relationships expressed in previous articles (for instance; “The External Dimension of the July 15 Coup”, “The Russian Factor in the Outgoing Process of the 15 July Betrayal Coup”, “Is July 15 a Revenge on Turkey?”, “Is it a Coup Alert or a Call for it from Dugin?”). In other words, the April 16, June 27 and July 8-9 processes which pushed the United States (US)/NATO directly into an intervention in Turkey, has gained further momentum.
First of all, it is better to make this determination once again: July 15 is a significant breaking and turning point for Turkish foreign policy as well as Turkish political life. The reason is due to discomfort caused by Turkey through its change-transformation process which led to the July 15th coup attempt.
When it’s about Turkey; a number of concerns caused by the parallelism of Turkish foreign policy and the process of internal structuring lead to very different reflexes. Indeed, a large number of concrete examples can be seen throughout the historical development of Turkish political life since the last period of the Ottoman Empire, especially after the 1838 Treaty of Balta Limani (Anglo-Ottoman Treaty).
To broach the subject a little more… The balance policy, which has become inevitable since the last period of the Ottomans, was not always implemented efficiently, neither did it provide the desired results. To this end, “conflicts of interest” and “survival” that come to the fore in the context of the Ottoman and “others” undoubtedly have an important place.
The situation, which has not changed through time and is barred from alteration is the role given to Turkey since the Ottoman Empire as being part of the “Western Club”. For this reason, the state was pushed towards a western conformation while resistance to this or different outputs have always been “punished.”
The failed July 15th coup attempt is not exempt from this determination. Indeed, the article titled “Russian Factor in the Outgoing Process of 15 July Betrayal Coup” written two years ago, highlighted the state reconstruction with balanced maneuverability and mobility provided by the Russian dimension in Turkish foreign policy as a vital reason for the coup which indeed was a sabotage attempt.
Three Critical Dates Before and After July 15 …
In the event of combining different or irrelevant-unrelated events, the causal link that led to the 15th of July can be easily visualized. In this context, it is worth to take a quick look at what happened just before and shortly after the failed coup attempt without going too far.
The first and foremost event is the April 16th, 2017 referendum. With this referendum and through the support of the national will, the Republic of Turkey rejected the system imposed by the United States in 1946 to make way for a new process that sees Turkey highly regarded within the international system. (Therefore, the West sees the April 16 referendum as an important step in the process of withdrawing from the Western bloc and had to act against it.)
Another decisive event is the normalization of relations with Russia starting from 27th of June as well as launching a new unnamed alliance system, against a possible operation of the West against itself, especially through the US/NATO. With the relief conceded from the regional alliance symbolized by Astana, Turkey rejects being a “foreign policy tool” of the West which has camouflaged this case under an alliance relation. Moreover, Ankara by the means of foreign policy maneuvers achieve the opportunity to construct a more independent and powerful state.
At the Warsaw Summit on July 8-9, Turkey refuses as well as vetoes to be a part of the US/NATO initiatives towards Russia. This veto is therefore considered as an invitation for 15th of July, due to the fact that NATO declares Turkey a risky country pushes the button for an intervention
Although Turkey has received some compliments in the recent Brussels Summit, it yet faces another crucial test; which is the Iranian dimension…
Could Iran be a “Reason for a New Coup?”
Probably “yes”. On assumption that Turkey maintains its stance towards Russia and Iran, in particular, could lead to a new intervention process. There are two major experiences/examples that support the case. First is, Menderes’s reconciliation with the USSR in order to inculcate a “Russian Balance” in Turkish foreign policy. The other was Turkey’s perseverance of a foreign policy that favored status quo in the Middle East in 2003 which obliquely asserted non-interventionist stance and denominated Saddam to stay in power.
As of today, Turkey is not only opposing a possible intervention against Iran, but rather acting in cohesion in order to eliminate regional threats and crisis. For instance; the Saudi Arabian-Qatar Crisis, the so-called September 25 Referendum initiated by Barzani which advocated “GMEP Kurdistan” and the developments based on northern Syria…
Moreover, Iran is a party to the Astana process that Turkey has built with Russia. Hence, bilateral relationship is even deeper than they appear. Therefore, since 28th December 2017, Turkey has moved away from destabilization initiatives against its neighbor. The statement of Iran’s ambassador to Ankara on the issue and finally, the statement made by Reza Hakan Tekin — Turkey’s ambassador to Tehran — a few days ago in which he stated that; “the unilateral sanctions of the US against Iran are illegal” is a significant indication that support this aspect.
Therefore, Turkey’s standpoint is straightforward… However, it is important to see how the US/NATO duo would respond to this stance (although this is a known secret). Turkey is once again commencing with a significant process and to declare in advance; “As it did not compromise its relations with Russia, Ankara will display a similar judgement towards Iran as well”.
At this point, a second July 15 initiative will be the end of numerous events as well as the announcement and beginning of a new process!