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The Melony Era in Italy: What Kind of Future?

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A right-wing coalition of the Brothers of Italy (FdI), the League, and Forza Italia, obtained roughly 44% of the vote in the general elections held in Italy on September 25, 2022. With 26% of the vote, the far right FdI under Giorgia Meloni was declared as the winning party. The right wing’s electoral potential has grown as a result of the euro crisis, the refugee issue, the Covid-19 outbreak, the Russia-Ukraine War, and the economic, political, and social implications of all these.

Meloni, who is anticipated to be nominated to form a new government by the end of October 2022 and who would eventually become Italy’s first female prime minister, describes herself as a conservative who upholds traditional family values rather than a radical right ideology. During the election campaign, it could be claimed that the rhetoric of “I’m a woman, I’m a mother, I’m Italian, I’m Christian” won the public’s sympathies and overshadowed all other issues.

According to Meloni, Italy is a Christian nation and ought to stay that way. Therefore, she contends that it is necessary to fight against foreign cultures. She argued in favor of this position by citing the need to increase Italy’s birthrate, fight against the LGBT lobby, stop the flow of immigrants into Italy, and the threat that Islam brings to Europe. Therefore, the emphasis on national identity came into prominence in Meloni’s election campaign.

Meloni, who often used the slogans regarding religion, country, family in the campaigning process, takes a curious stance toward the European Union (EU), of which Italy is a founding member. She also considers national interests superior to the goals of the EU and believes that nation-states are important in the EU integration process.[1]

Meloni also points out that Italy needs to stop falling behind Germany and France in order to gain ground. The EU is also skeptical of Meloni, considering that she may act contrary to the norms. As a matter of fact, President of the European Commission Ursula Von der Leyen did not neglect to warn Meloni that they will employ certain “tools” if is a departure from democratic principles.[2]

The contrast between the EU’s assessment of Viktor Orban’s government in Hungary as an autocrat that undermines EU ideals and Meloni’s definition of Orban as an elected democratic leader[3] proves that the Union is right to be wary of Meloni. As a result, the EU’s unity is threatened by the rising number of leaders who disagree with its core principles.

The other threat to the EU is the rising far-right. The EU residents express their displeasure with the reduction in welfare levels by supporting parties that use nationalist rhetoric on a continent that has transitioned from a Europe of Prosperity to a Europe of Crises. In fact, thanks to their extreme right-wing policies, Marine Le Pen in France, the Alternative for Germany Party (AfD) in Germany, and the Sweden Democrats in Sweden all saw increases in their support in the most recent elections. This makes it possible to see the extreme right’s ongoing ascent in Europe as a shift away from integration and toward nation-statehood.

Other far-right groups in Europe will be energized by Meloni’s success in Italy. Therefore, the far-right Vox Party in Spain, where the elections will take place next year, will be encouraged by FdI’s triumph. Of course, there is a chance that the rise of the Meloni-led FdI in Italy may not go beyond giving hope to other parties since Italy is dependent on financial support of the EU due to its fragile economic structure.

The Covid-19 pandemic, the Russian-Ukrainian War, and its associated inflation, the energy and food crises, and the election process have all contributed to the Italian economy’s multifaceted struggles. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has made unhelpful claims, including that rising energy and food prices related to the Italian economy will have a negative impact on consumers’ real income, that high interest rates and an unstable environment will discourage private investment, that businesses will reduce their planned production, and that the funding cost for the state and banks will increase[4]. As a result, from Italy’s perspective, the 200-billion-euro fund from the EU is crucial to the current process.

At this point, Meloni has two choices: she can either stick with her populist rhetoric and aggravate the EU, or she may pursue a conciliatory stance by enacting changes to the legal and administrative structures to gain access to the EU financing. It is expected that Meloni will select the latter option and adopt a practical approach based on her pre-election declarations[5] that she would adhere to the EU budget regulations.

Another example of Meloni’s pragmatic approach is the Russian-Ukrainian War. While condemning Russia in this process, Meloni unconditionally supported the Ukrainian government. Meloni, a supporter of the Atlanticist strategy and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), promised an Italy that would cooperate with its other Western allies in the struggle between freedoms and autocracies.

To achieve a ceasefire, Meloni’s coalition allies Salvini and Berlusconi have softened their stance toward President of Russia Vladimir Putin and questioned the effectiveness of the EU sanctions against Russia.[6] There have been worries that Rome and Moscow may reproache in the new era in light of the rhetoric of Salvini and Berlusconi as well as the historical ties of right-wing parties with Russia. Meloni’s assertions that Russia threatens all of Europe and that the annexation of four regions of Ukraine on September 30, 2022, have no legal or political significance,[7] act as a counterbalance to Berlusconi and Salvini’s indecisive positions. Therefore, Italy’s current policy towards Ukraine is anticipated to remain in place.

Meloni emphasized the need to help Ukraine by saying both China and Russia pose the same threat to Italy, saying, “If Ukraine falls and the West perishes, the real winner will not be Putin’s Russia, but Xi Jinping’s China… and Europe, risks finding [itself] under Chinese influence.”[8] However, Italy assumed the leading role among the Western nations in the Belt and Road Initiative, which had been finalized with Mario Draghi still in power. As part of this collaboration, China made a number of investments in Italian infrastructure.[9] Some politicians, particularly the Five Star Movement, emphasized the need to seize the business prospects presented by the Chinese market in order to resurrect the Italian economy.[10] However, it is acknowledged that throughout the Meloni era, Italian-Chinese ties would be molded in the shadow of the Atlanticist understanding and that Rome will not be a weak link in the Western alliance.

In conclusion, Meloni succeeded in persuading the base that supports the extreme right with her populist rhetoric, and with the influence of the conjuncture, she achieved a victory that will accelerate the rising extreme right in Europe. With these statements, Meloni is attempting to soothe the groups that are anxious about her triumph. However, the decision of the cabinet will clarify any uncertainty over her intentions during her term as prime minister, including whether she will abandon right-wing politics and whether she will act pragmatically or ideologically.


[1] Alissa Pavia, “Which Giorgia Meloni will Washington get?”, Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/which-giorgia-meloni-will-washington-get/, (Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).

[2] “EU’s Von Der Leyen Delivers Veiled Warning to Italy’s Right Wing”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eus-von-der-leyen-delivers-veiled-warning-italys-right-wing-2022-09-23/, (Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).

[3] Federica Pascale “Italy’s Meloni Backs Orbán, Says Hungary Is ‘Democratic’”, Euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/italys-meloni-backs-orban-says-hungary-is-democratic/, (Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).

[4] “Italy: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2022 Article IV Mission”, International Monetary Fund, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/05/19/italy-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2022-article-iv-mission, (Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).

[5] Angelo Amente, Giselda Vagnoni, Crispian Balmer, “Italy’s Meloni Says Public Finances Will Be Safe In Her Hands”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-italys-meloni-says-public-finances-will-be-safe-her-hands-2022-08-25/, (Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).

[6] “Italy’s Lurch to The Right Triggers Diplomatic Storm On Eve Of Election”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/italys-lurch-to-the-right-triggers-international-furore-election-vladimir-putin-silvio-berlusconi-matteo-salvini-ursula-von-der-leyen-decent-people/, (Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).

[7]“Italy’s Meloni Slams Russia After Ukraine Annexations”, Daily Times, https://dailytimes.com.pk/1005808/italys-meloni-slams-russia-after-ukraine-annexations/, (Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).

[8] Ludovica Meacci “Italy’s Right Is Torn on Ukraine but United on China”, Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/27/italy-china-russia-right /, (Date of Accession: 05.10.2022).

[9] “BRI Shouldn’t Fall Victim to Italy’s Current Political Atmosphere”, Global Times, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1276262.shtml, (Date of Accession: 05.10.2022).

[10] Nicola Casarini “Italy’s China Card in EU-US Relations”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/italys-china-card-in-eu-us-relations /, (Date of Accession: 05.10.2022).

Gamze BAL
Gamze BAL
Gamze BAL has completed her undergraduated education at Sakarya University, Department of International Relations. Afterward, she has completed his master in Sakarya University with a dissertation titled “The European Union’s Policy on Palestine-Israel Issue in Post 1992”. Between 2021 and 2022, she studied doctoral program in European Union at Institute of Social Sciences, Istanbul University. At the present time, Bal pursuing a PhD in international relations at Instıtute of Graduate Program, Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University. Having advenced level in English, her main research areas are European Union, security, ethnic conflicts, means of conflict resolution.