The European Union (EU) countries have recognised that they may fail to fulfil their ammunition promises to Ukraine. At the beginning of the war, EU countries promised Ukraine to provide needed ammunition in order to stop the Russian invasion and to reclaim the occupied territories. Earlier this year, EU leaders caused a stir by promising to supply the Ukrainian front with 1 million cannonballs by spring 2024. Which would correspond to a significant increase in production.1
However, the 27-member bloc, a body that for more than 50 years has had the message “peace, not war” and has been protected under the military umbrella of the United States of America (USA), is struggling to fulfil its promises.
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, stated that the figure of 1 million cannonballs cannot be reached, which had been promised earlier. Following the EU defence and foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels on 14 November 2023, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell also expressed doubts about the target, saying: “We may not reach the 1 million target by March“. 2
Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur stated that it is important to increase the supply of ammunition. Pevkur said; “Look at Russia. They produce more today. They buy cannonball from North Korea. Europe cannot say ‘Russia and North Korea can deliver, we cannot’”. 3
So far, 300,000 rounds have been delivered from existing stocks in the EU. It is becoming increasingly difficult to deliver the rest before spring. Latvian Defence Minister Andris Spruds has argued that there is no need to adhere too strictly to the initial target.4
In the Russian-Ukrainian War, 155 mm artillery shells do not play a significant role. The daily consumption of 6,000 to 7,000 shells emphasises the strategic importance of this situation. Acquiring 1 million shells could provide stability for Ukraine for at least six months. It could create an advantage in continuous operations and provide flexibility on the battlefield.
EU Commissioner Thierry Breton has stated that the production target of 1 million bullets can be met, but member states must place orders. However, EU members blame the manufacturers. Dutch Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren said: “We have all signed contracts, we have done joint procurement.” 5
Breton acknowledged that the bloc remains vulnerable due to the EU’s over-reliance on “soft power” and the fact that budgets in many European countries have been decreasing for years. According to EU Foreign Policy Chief Borrell, one way to get more ammunition is to redirect current EU exports and prioritise Ukraine. “About 40 per cent of production is exported to third countries. So maybe what we should do is to try to shift this production to where it is prioritised, which is the Ukrainians.” 6
The problem of ammunition production capacity and ordering is an important problem. EU members argue that the industry needs to produce more in order to reach the 1 million rounds production target. However, the disruptions in the ordering processes among the members and the lack of increasing demand for the industry prevent the realisation of this target.
Moreover, over-reliance on soft power and declining defence budgets reflects another problem. The EU’s historical over-reliance on “peace prioritisation” and low defence budgets in many countries have a negative impact on the bloc’s defence capacity. This may lead to difficulties in managing emergencies and fulfilling strategic commitments.
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[1] “The European Union is Struggling to Produce and Send the Ammunition it Promised to Ukraine”, Associated Press News, https://apnews.com/article/eu-ukraine-ammunition-russia-war-6e0be2d27201bc7ea205ffac7d7a7693, (Date of Accession: 15.11.2023).
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