China-India border problems have been going on for years and there is a fluctuating relationship between the two countries. The Actual Control Line (LAC) of 3,440 km, which is not fully defined, causes the security forces of the two countries to clash frequently. Despite the talks at the military level, conflicts occur from time to time and tensions escalate. Negotiations over the past three decades have failed to resolve border disputes. The presence of rivers, lakes, and snow peaks in the control line affects the variability of the borderline.[1]
On December 15, 2022, tensions rose again on the China-India border, and a clash with stones and sticks occurred between the security forces.[2] During this tension, India’s missile test launch drew attention to a different point. In this context, the development of New Delhi’s nuclear capacity and missile tests is important.
It is possible to say that the border tensions with China had a triggering effect on India’s nuclear development and activities. Border tensions, which caused a war between the two countries in 1962, turned into conflicts again in 2017. After China tried to extend the border road from a disputed region, conflict occurred in the region.[3] However, the conflict that took place mainly in 2020 brought the risk of a new war to the agenda. After the 2020 conflict, which is among the deadliest conflicts of the last 45 years, the military and nuclear activities of the two countries have started to attract more attention. Both military exercises undertaken by the parties and work capable of affecting border security; is essential because it is a message to the other party.
After the conflict in 2020, a dispute took place in the Sikkim region in January 2021. Later, in September of the same year, China accused India of shooting at its troops. In June 2022, New Delhi accused China of building a base and observation tower in the region, and the tension again resulted in conflict. The conflict on December 15, 2022, occurred in the Tawang region of Arunachal Pradesh state in eastern India. Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh has argued that the conflict began with Chinese troops “entering Indian territory” and “unilaterally trying to change the status quo” along the disputed border near the Yangtse region.[4]
While tensions continue between the two countries; India has conducted a long-range nuclear-capable missile test. It can be said that the test is a show of strength for Beijing. However, a statement was made by the Indian authorities that the test was planned earlier. It is also stated that the test was announced in advance. Thus, New Delhi’s move is a routine step towards building its defence capacity. It was an interesting coincidence that border tensions occurred in this process.[5]
India, which started its nuclear program in the 1940s, announced its first official Nuclear Doctrine in 2003. New Delhi has listed the aims of nuclear studies in the said doctrine. According to this, the aim is to achieve a reliable minimum deterrence, to use these weapons in retaliation for a nuclear attack on Indian soil or Indian forces anywhere, and not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapons states. For these purposes, various studies and tests are carried out from time to time.[6]
In May 1998, the country conducted a series of nuclear tests that demonstrated its capacity to use nuclear energy for military purposes. Declaring the “No First Use Doctrine” after this test, India has committed to not be the first to use nuclear power.[7]
As part of the test, the first test of a nuclear-capable ballistic missile called Agni V was made in 2012. Agni V is considered one of India’s attempts to strengthen its nuclear deterrence against China. New Delhi has developed a family of intercontinental ballistic missiles called “Agni”, meaning “fire.”[8] Agni missiles are long-range, nuclear-capable, ground-to-ground ballistic missiles. Previous versions of the series have also been tested in the past years.
The previous, last Agni V test was conducted in October 2021. The missile has a range of about 5,000 km. It is also known to be capable of reaching most cities in mainland China, including Beijing.[9] In the statements made; it is stated that the test carried out to verify the new technologies and equipment on the missile proves that the missile can hit targets farther than before.[10] At the same time, in the announcement made by the Ministry of Defense of India, it was stated that the successful test was in accordance with the “minimum deterrence” policy. In June 2021, the new generation nuclear-capable ballistic missile Agni P, an advanced variant of the “Agni” class missile, was successfully tested.[11]
The Agni V missile test, operated by the Strategic Forces Command, was conducted from Abdul Kalam Island, off Odisha. The nuclear-capable missile using a three-stage solid-fuel engine was developed by the Defense Research and Development Corporation. It is stated that Agni-VI is also under development with a much longer range starting from 8000 kilometres and can carry Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles.[12]
Apparently, India will continue to advance this series. As a matter of fact, the Stockholm-based defence think tank SIPRI, in its statement in June 2022, claimed that India had 160 nuclear warheads as of January 2022 and was on the way to expanding its nuclear arsenal. It seems that India will continue to push this series forward.[13]
Currently, it is estimated that India uses eight different systems with nuclear capacity. It consists of two aircraft, four land-based ballistic missiles, and two sea-based ballistic missiles. It is estimated to produce around 700 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium, sufficient for 138 to 213 nuclear warheads. The country is working to increase its existing capacity, complement its systems, or create new systems to replace them. New Delhi continues to modernize its nuclear arsenal with at least four new weapon systems developed in this context.[14]
At the same time, additional plutonium will be required to produce warheads for these missiles. It is stated that India has built several new plutonium production facilities in this context. The 500-megawatt Prototype Rapid Cultivation Reactor (PFBR) under construction at the Indira Gandhi Atomic Research Center near Kalpakkam is expected to further increase India’s plutonium production capacity.[15]
As a result, it is seen that New Delhi has taken important steps toward increasing its nuclear capacity. Missile tests and modernization studies are shaped by new-generation technological opportunities. It can be said that these studies are expected to create a deterrent effect in terms of the current border problems of the country. In this context, it can be predicted that India will continue to develop its nuclear capacity in terms of production and capacity.
[1] “India-China Clash: 20 Indian Troops Killed in Ladakh Fighting”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476, (Date of Accession: 17.12.2022).
[2] “Indian and Chinese Troops Fight with Sticks and Bricks in Video”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/14/asia/india-china-border-tensions-video-intl-hnk/index.html, (Date of Accession: 17.12.2022).
[3] “India-China Clash…”, op. cit.
[4] “India and China Troops Clash on Arunachal Pradesh Mountain Border”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63953400, (Date of Accession: 17.12.2022).
[5] “India Conducts Night Trials of Nuclear Capable Agni-V Ballistic Missile”, NDTV, https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-conducts-night-trials-of-nuclear-capable-agni-v-ballistic-missile-3610126, (Date of Accession: 17.12.2022).
[6]“Cabınet Commıttee on Securıty Revıews Progress in Operatıonalızıng Indıa’s Nuclear Doctrıne”, Pib.gov.in, https://archive.pib.gov.in/archive/releases98/lyr2003/rjan2003/04012003/r040120033.html#:~:text=It%20is%20the%20sole%20body,it%20by%20the%20Political%20Council., (Date of Accession: 17.12.2022).
[7]“Nuclear Doctrine of India”, Drishtiias, https://www.drishtiias.com/printpdf/nuclear-doctrine-of-india, (Date of Accession: 17.12.2022).
[8] “India Tests Long-Range Missile for Nuclear Deterrence”, Fox5, https://fox5sandiego.com/news/world-news/ap-international/ap-india-tests-long-range-missile-for-nuclear-deterrence/#:~:text=India%20has%20developed%20a%20family,%2Dto%2Dsurface%20ballistic%20missiles., (Date of Accession: 17.12.2022).
[9] “5 Facts About India’s Agni-5 Nuclear Capable Missile Test Fired Today”, NDTV, https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/5-facts-about-indias-agni-5-nuclear-capable-missile-test-fired-today-3610259, (Date of Accession: 17.12.2022).
[10] “India Conducts Night…”, op. cit.
[11] “Amid Border Tensions with China-India Successfully Tests Agni-V”, Hindustan Times, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/amid-border-tensions-with-china-india-successfully-tests-agni-v-101671114050559.html, (Date of Accession: 17.12.2022).
[12] “India Test Fires Agni-V, Ballistic Missile with A Range of over 5,000 km”, Indian Express, https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/pune/india-test-fires-agni-v-ballistic-missile-8326983/, (Date of Accession: 17.12.2022).
[13] “India Appears to be Expanding Its Nuclear Arsenal, Claims SIPRI”, The Hindu, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-appears-to-be-expanding-its-nuclear-arsenal-claims-sipri/article65523474.ece, (Date of Accession: 17.12.2022).
[14] “Nuclear Notebook How Many Nuclear Weapons Does India Have in”, The Bulletin, https://thebulletin.org/premium/2022-07/nuclear-notebook-how-many-nuclear-weapons-does-india-have-in-2022/, (Date of Accession: 17.12.2022).
[15] Ibid.
