After Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the European Union (EU) faced the fact that its dependence on natural gas to Moscow constituted its own “weak spot.” Moscow, on the other hand, has started to use this as a “blackmail material” because it is aware of the EU’s dependence on natural gas. Accordingly, the Balkans and the EU member states have turned to alternative searches in order to ensure their energy security. In this context, the liquefied natural gas (LNG) option has come to the agenda.
As is known, natural gas is transported by ships in cases where it is not possible to transport it by pipeline. LNG, which is the liquefied form of natural gas, is a clear, colorless, odorless and clean burning fuel. LNG, which is cooled to -162 °C and becomes liquid, shrinks 600 times at the end of this process. Thus, it becomes easier and safer to store and transport.[1] After reaching the destination, the LNG is processed in the relevant facilities and regasification. Afterwards, transportation to industrial areas is realized through pipes.[2] Therefore, LNG comes into the prominence in cases where the pipeline cannot reach.
Before the war in Ukraine, Russia pursued a policy of trying to make Europe dependent on it with cheap gas pipelines. So much so that, given the high cost of LNG, this situation was not a priority option for European countries until the Russia-Ukraine War began. However, in the current process, it is possible to say that LNG will be preferred by Western European countries with a high level of prosperity. At this point, the economic development of European countries may play a decisive role in their orientation towards LNG.
In addition, whether the EU and Balkan countries have seaports or not is also seen as an important element in their orientation to the LGN option. In other words, in order for countries to supply LNG, they must have coasts to the sea and build LNG terminals in their ports.
Currently, there are only two LNG terminals in the Balkans. One of them is located in Greece, the other is located in Croatia. On the other hand, Athens plans to build three more LNG terminals, while Zagreb aims to increase the number of LNG terminals in the country. In the Balkans, Albania is also considering building an LNG terminal.[3] In this context, it can be said that Greece will be one of the leading countries in the region regarding LNG. Athens has already started the construction of an LNG terminal in Alexandroupolis in May 2022. This terminal is expected to be operational in November 2023.[4] Therefore, a certain period of time is needed for the construction of the LNG terminal. Hereby, it is worth emphasizing that LNG is an option that will be more spread over the long term today, when the winter season is beginning to be felt.
Among the EU countries, Spain is the country with the most LNG terminals with six terminals. Spain is followed by France with four terminals. In addition, the Paris administration is planning to build another terminal. Looking at other European countries, while there are three LNG terminals in Italy, it is aimed to increase this number to seven. There are three LNG terminals in the UK and one terminal is being built. In Belgium, there is one LNG terminal and two are being built. The Netherlands also has an LNG terminal, a terminal is also under construction. It is planned to build two more terminals in the country. On the other hand, there are also one LNG terminal each in Portugal, Lithuania, Malta and Poland. In addition, the Warsaw administration is considering increasing this number to two. However, countries that do not have LNG terminals in Europe, but are planning to build them, include Ireland, Germany, Finland and Estonia.[5]
It is noteworthy that there is no LNG terminal in Germany, which is the most powerful member of the EU economically and politically. Because Germany, with the process starting under Gerhard Schröder and continuing with Angela Merkel, has turned to supplying cheap natural gas from Russia through the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 Natural Gas Pipelines. Therefore, it is a geopolitical choice for an economically rich country such as Germany not to turn to LNG. However, the Berlin administration, which was in a difficult situation with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, decided to build five LNG terminals. The natural gas to be obtained from these five terminals will constitute only 20% of the natural gas to come from the Nord Stream 1 Natural Gas Pipeline.[6] As can be seen from this example, it is quite difficult for LNG to replace Russian natural gas. However, it can be said that LNG will be important in terms of diversifying the energy sources of Germany and some other European countries.
The US is one of the world’s largest LNG suppliers. The Washington administration, which wants to take advantage of the deterioration of Moscow’s relations with European actors, encourages European countries to turn to the LNG option. Because US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a statement on September 30, 2022, referring to the gas leak in the Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline, drew attention to the fact that this event can be a tremendous advantage in order to definitively eliminate dependence on Russian energy.[7]
As it is clear, the US sees the Russia-Ukraine War as an opportunity to get into the European market and, consequently, to export LNG. Moreover, with the war in Ukraine, it can be said that the dispute between Germany and the US over the supply of natural gas has come to light more. For example, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck argued on October 5, 2022, that the US and other friendly natural gas supplier countries were profiting from the Ukrainian War, suggesting that astronomical prices were being applied to the supply.[8]
To summarize briefly, considering the process that started with the Russia-Ukraine War, it seems that some European countries are turning to LNG is a necessity rather than a preference. It can be said that the most obvious example of this is Germany. Due to the high liquefaction and transportation costs, it can be suggested that LNG, which is a more expensive alternative compared to pipelines, will be a more viable option for Western European states rather than the Balkan countries. Consequently, it can be said that LNG will be an important alternative for diversifying energy security in the long term for many countries in a process where Europe is experiencing energy fragility, but it will not be enough to overcome the current crisis.
[1] “LNG Process”, Saint John LNG, https://www.saintjohnlng.com/lng-process#:~:text=After%20the%20unloading%20arms%20are,takes%20approximately%2024%2D36%20hours, (Date of Accession:05.10.2022).
[2] “Sıvılaştırılmış Doğalgaz (LNG)”, Shell, https://www.shell.com.tr/kurumsal-musteriler/shell-lng/liquefied-natural-gas-lng.html, (Date of Accession:05.10.2022).
[3] “Number of Operational and Planned Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) İmport Terminals in Europe as of April 2022, by country”, Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/326008/lng-import-terminals-by-country-europe/, (Date of Accession: 08.10.2022).
[4] Harry Aposporis, “Launch of Works on Alexandroupolis LNG Terminal in Greece”, Balkan Green Energy News, https://balkangreenenergynews.com/launch-of-works-on-alexandroupolis-lng-terminal-in-greece-heralds-reduced-dependence-on-russian-gas-for-the-balkans/, (Date of Accession: 05.10.2022).
[5] “Number of Operational and Planned Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Import Terminals in Europe as of April 2022, by country”, Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/326008/lng-import-terminals-by-country-europe/, (Date of Accession: 08.10.2022).
[6] “Germany Builds New Gas Terminals to Succeed Russian Pipelines”, France 24, https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20221002-germany-builds-new-gas-terminals-to-succeed-russian-pipelines, (Date of Accession: 08.10.2022).
[7] “Secretary Antony J. Blinken And Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly at a Joint Press Availability”, U.S. Deparment of State, https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-canadian-foreign-minister-melanie-joly-at-a-joint-press-availability/, (Date of Accession: 08.10.2022).
[8] “German Minister Criticizes U.S. Over ‘Astronomical’ Natural Gas Prices”, CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/05/german-minister-criticizes-us-over-astronomical-natural-gas-prices.html, (Date of Accession: 08.10.2022).
