North Korean President Kim Jong Un visited Russia on September 12, 2023, for a comprehensive meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. [i] The meeting took place at the Vostochny Spaceport in Russia’s Amur region[ii]
The meeting between Putin and Kim, along with the close relationship between Moscow and Pyongyang, could potentially escalate tensions with the West and increase bloc conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region. During this visit, it is expected that despite Western sanctions, the two actors will strengthen their defense and economic cooperation.
Moscow’s ongoing war in Ukraine has led to a need for arms supplies from Pyongyang, and the discussions in this context, possibly resulting in an arms trade agreement, could have critical implications. Such a situation could potentially lead to the formation of a new alliance reminiscent of the Cold War era.
This development may heighten tensions between the Western Bloc, consisting of the United States, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand, and the alliance between North Korea and Russia. This, in turn, could have significant consequences for both regional and global security dynamics, especially in the already fragile Asia-Pacific security landscape
The growing closeness between Russia and North Korea could hinder efforts to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. Restarting the process of denuclearization and building a security and peace mechanism in the region may become more challenging
Furthermore, it is possible that the cooperation between Russia and North Korea could evolve into a nuclear partnership in the future. If such an alliance were to materialize, it could significantly provoke the Western Bloc, particularly Washington, given that both states are major nuclear powers. North Korea conducted a record Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) test in 2022 , establishing itself as one of the world’s major nuclear powers [iii] North Korea currently utilizes Soviet-era weapon technology from the former Soviet Union (USSR).[iv]
This suggests that, due to Russia’s inability to achieve its desired results in the ongoing war in Ukraine and Ukraine’s offensive operations, Russia may seek assistance from North Korea for military support. .
This situation could prompt Pyongyang to make more proactive and bold moves against the West and Washington. Strengthening bilateral relations between North Korea and Russia could have a profound impact on the regional and international situation. In this context, it can be said that tensions in the Asia-Pacific region are constantly on the verge of escalation.
In the West, it is known that the United States is leveraging the Ukraine crisis to revive NATO, encouraging all member states to escalate tensions with Russia and weaken Russia. In the East, the United States may be using the North Korean nuclear issue to strengthen trilateral security cooperation with Japan and South Korea, effectively encircling China.
If a trilateral security alliance is established between Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo, it could lead to broader security partnerships between North Korea and other revisionist states. This could further consolidate states with common ground against the West, particularly in terms of anti-Western sentiment.
In conclusion, the North Korea-Russia partnership has the potential to significantly destabilize both global and regional security equations. This situation could also provoke the Western Bloc to a considerable extent and escalate tensions between the poles.
[i] “North Korea’s Kim Jong Un in Russia Amid U.S. Warnings not to Sell Arms”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/north-koreas-kim-jong-un-russia-amid-us-warnings-not-sell-arms-2023-09-12/, (Erişim Tarihi: 13.09.2023).
[ii] “Kim and Putin Meet at Russian Spaceport for Possible Arms Talks”, NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/, (Erişim Tarihi: 13.09.2023).
[iii] “North Korea’s Record Year of Missile Testing is Putting the World on Edge”, Cable News Network, https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/26/asia/north-korea-missile-testing-year-end-intl-hnk/index.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 13.09.2023).
[iv] “Is It Tim to Accept North Korea is a Nuclear Power”, Cable News Network, https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/28/asia/north-korea-nuclear-threat-solution-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 13.09.2023).
