Analysis

Signals of a Return to the Cold War from the UK

The Western world, led by the United Kingdom and the United States, is no longer at the center of the international system.
If the war in Europe ends, Britain may want to move its struggle with Russia to other regions.
It is a known fact that the UK and the US are waging a proxy war against Russia through Ukraine.

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After the Israel-Hamas War, Houthi forces in Yemen began attacking Western-flagged ships in the Red Sea. In response, steps were taken to establish a naval coalition in the region led by the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK). Besides the Red Sea, the UK also pursues a proactive policy concerning the Russia-Ukraine War, which closely concerns European security.

Additionally, London is engaged in intensive diplomacy with the United States to ensure the Western world’s confrontation with China. This is why China has frequently criticized the United Kingdom and the United States for acting with a “Cold War mentality” in recent years.[1] It is indeed among the questions of interest whether the United Kingdom is seeking polarization in the world.

In the strategic concept published by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 2022, the mention of China as a “strategic challenge” for the first time owes much to the efforts of the United Kingdom and the United States. During that period, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss had repeatedly called for Europe to confront China after Ukraine. Truss, who was a candidate in the prime ministerial election race at that time, had promised to designate China as the “number one enemy.” Later, Rishi Sunak, who was elected Prime Minister, initially did not want to target China, but in order to maintain strong transatlantic relations, he had to declare China as the number one enemy

The policies pursued by the United Kingdom in crises such as Ukraine, the Red Sea, and Israel-Hamas are a subject of debate. For example, it is claimed that the UK violates international law by continuing to arm Israel.[2] Three British aid workers, John Chapman, Jim Henderson, and James Kirby, lost their lives on April 1, 2024, when the convoy they were traveling in was struck by an Israeli airstrike. The Israel Defense Forces described this as a “serious mistake.” As a result, the London Government faced increasing calls to suspend arms exports to Israel. In this context, more than 600 lawyers and academics published a 17-page letter warning that the current situation in Gaza is a “disaster.”[3] In the letter, signatories have warned that considering the International Court of Justice’s view that there is a reasonable risk of genocide, the United Kingdom government legally should take action to prevent it. The signatories used the following statement in the letter:[4]

““While your government’s increasingly strong calls for the cessation of hostilities and unimpeded humanitarian access to Gaza are welcomed, the continuation of arms sales to Israel… is significantly falling short. Your government is failing to fulfill its obligations under international law.”

Ministers have also been called upon to work towards achieving a ceasefire and to impose sanctions on individuals and entities making statements that encourage genocide against Palestinians. Additionally, there has been a mention of the need for “serious action” to prevent the United Kingdom’s complicity in serious violations of international law, including possible breaches of the Genocide Convention.

The London Government does not directly supply weapons to Israel, but it grants export licenses to British companies to sell arms to the country. The United States continues to be by far the largest arms supplier to Israel. In the past decade, the UK has suspended arms sales licenses to Israel twice; however, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has so far resisted calls to do so again. Despite Israel’s ongoing attacks, the UK’s failure to suspend arms sales to the country continues to raise questions about London’s global policies. In this context, it is crucial for the UK to steer clear of polarization and war policies.

Putting aside the Israel-Hamas War, it is a known fact that the UK and the US have been waging a proxy war against Russia through Ukraine. While continental Europe is reluctant to continue this war, the UK and the US are in favor of its continuation. It can be said that Russia and China are positioned against the UK and the US in the power competition among major powers. The power competition between these powers lies behind the war being staged in Europe today. In this context, it is still possible to analyze world politics through realist theory, zero-sum games, and polarization politics. It can be argued that the UK is signaling a return to the Cold War in this sense.

Led by the United Kingdom and the United States, the Western world is no longer at the center of the international system. Rising powers like Russia and China are challenging the Western powers, which were once the established powers. In the face of this situation, the UK and the US are seeking to make Russia and China lose within the zero-sum game framework. If the war in Europe ends, the UK may want to shift its fight against Russia to other regions. Asia or the Asia-Pacific could be quite favorable in this regard.


[1] “Çin: ABD, İngiltere ve Avustralya Soğuk Savaş zihniyetinden kurtulmalı”, CGTN Turk, https://arsiv.cgtnturk.com/cin-abd-ingiltere-ve-avustralya-soguk-savas-zihniyetinden-kurtulmali/, (Date of Access: 04.04.2024); “Çin’den İngiltere’ye soğuk savaş eleştirisi”, Aksam, https://www.aksam.com.tr/dunya/cinden-ingiltereye-soguk-savas-elestirisi/haber-1395826, (Date of Access: 04.04.2024).

[2] “UK is breaching international law by continuing to arm Israel, Sunak warned”, Sky, https://news.sky.com/story/uk-is-breaching-international-law-by-continuing-to-arm-israel-sunak-warned-13107474, (Date of Access: 04.04.2024).

[3] Ibıd.

[4] Ibıd.

Dr. Cenk TAMER
Dr. Cenk TAMER
Dr. Cenk Tamer graduated from Sakarya University, Department of International Relations in 2014. In the same year, he started his master's degree at Gazi University, Department of Middle Eastern and African Studies. In 2016, Tamer completed his master's degree with his thesis titled "Iran's Iraq Policy after 1990", started working as a Research Assistant at ANKASAM in 2017 and was accepted to Gazi University International Relations PhD Program in the same year. Tamer, whose areas of specialization are Iran, Sects, Sufism, Mahdism, Identity Politics and Asia-Pacific and who speaks English fluently, completed his PhD education at Gazi University in 2022 with his thesis titled "Identity Construction Process and Mahdism in the Islamic Republic of Iran within the Framework of Social Constructionism Theory and Securitization Approach". He is currently working as an Asia-Pacific Specialist at ANKASAM.

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