The two significant summits were held in West Africa on July 6 and 7, 2024, highlighting the region’s political and economic tensions. These summits, which brought together the leaders of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), are seen as crucial meetings where strategic steps were taken to shape the region’s future. The first AES Summit held just one day before the ECOWAS summit as a form of challenge, tested ECOWAS once again following the decision of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to leave the organization earlier this year.
The separation between ECOWAS and AES is anticipated to significantly affect the stability and security of the region while also profoundly impacting West Africa’s internal political dynamics. Especially the stances of political and military leaders in countries like Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali challenge regional cooperation and integration efforts. Considering more than 400 million people live in West Africa, those divisions have had extensive impacts.
These summits’ motivations and outcomes are essential to regional and global actors. The military leaders of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, who came to power through coups in recent years, announced their joint departure from ECOWAS in January. The Sahel countries’ withdrawal from ECOWAS is, to some extent, due to accusations that France has been manipulating the regional organization and not providing adequate support for anti-jihadist efforts. Three countries have distanced themselves from their former colonial power by removing French troops from their territories. While the decisions taken at the AES Summit in Niger are negatively redefining relations with ECOWAS, pave the way for a realignment of political alliances in the region. AES’s new strategic initiatives might affect the traditional mission of ECOWAS to affected by AES’s new strategic initiatives. Significantly, AES’s independent measures to address regional security issues could challenge the effectiveness of ECOWAS.
The statements by leaders at the AES and ECOWAS summits offer valuable perspectives on the region’s future strategic directions. At the AES Summit, Niger’s President, General Abdourahamane Tiani, underlined the need to strengthen regional cooperation and pursue independent security and economic policies.[i] Tiani’s statements might be considered a reaction to the interventionist policies of ECOWAS. Hence, General Tiani urged the establishment of a community free from foreign influence. Furthermore, Tiani also emphasized that the people of the three countries have definitively turned away from ECOWAS and rejected calls for compliance with the bloc.[ii] Similarly, Burkina Faso and Mali leaders intended to pursue a more autonomous and self-sufficient regional policy under AES. [iii]These three leaders agreed to start collaborative agriculture, livestock, and regional development efforts.
The decisions made at the summits can significantly influence the region’s economic and security policies. AES’s resolution to have its military forces and strategies to counter regional terrorist threats could compel ECOWAS to reconsider its regional security architecture. In this sense, the impact of AES’s security policies on terrorism strategies in West Africa is crucial for maintaining regional stability. Moreover, the most notable decision from the AES Summit was the establishment of a “confederation” consisting of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso.[iv] This group, known as the Sahel Alliance Union, has formed a confederation. It is admirable that these three nations want to control their destiny, even if it is currently unknown how this confederation is run, what its subsidiary organizations are like, or how strong its economy is. The most critical security concerns and challenges in the Sahel are focused in the Liptako-Gourma region, where these three nations converge. Yet, over the past ten years, little has been done to address these issues. As a result, the confederation’s establishment is viewed as a positive step toward regional stability.
The tensions between ECOWAS and AES are challenging regional cooperation and integration processes. ECOWAS’s policies that promote regional economic integration are at odds with AES’s quest for independence and autonomy. This conflict might negatively affect economic development and cooperation among the countries in the region. Especially AES’s development of alternative trade and cooperation models in response to ECOWAS’s economic sanctions might significantly impact the region’s economic dynamics. However, for these alternatives to be effective, it is crucial to first address and reduce the security issues, separatist activities, and terrorist attacks in the region.
These divisions in West Africa might profoundly influence the region’s future political dynamics. How ECOWAS addresses AES’s moves for independence will be crucial for maintaining political stability in the area. ECOWAS may seek to reconsider its relationships with member countries and adopt more flexible policies. In this sense, the election of Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who highlighted the potential for reconciliation with the central Sahel countries during the ECOWAS Summit, is noteworthy. President Faye visited the three countries shortly after his election victory and delivered significant messages to their leaders.
At the ECOWAS Summit, President Faye declared, “We must do everything to prevent our three brother countries from leaving ECOWAS. This worst-case scenario would greatly harm pan-Africanism, which our founding ancestors bequeathed to us.”[v] And urged for necessary reforms to adapt ECOWAS to current realities. Hence, Faye’s role as a mediator between ECOWAS and AES is crucial. Without such mediation, the inclination of regional countries to operate more independently under the AES framework might intensify. ECOWAS might seek to devise new strategies to sustain its role as a regional leader.
The strategic visions presented by leaders at the summits will significantly influence the region’s future policies. Especially the emphasis on independence and autonomy at the AES summit could shift the political and economic balance in the area. The statements from the leaders of Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali, highlighting their pursuit of independence and autonomy, will be vital in shaping these countries’ future policies.
These differences in West Africa are expected to significantly impact the area’s political and economic dynamics in the near future. Tensions between ECOWAS and AES might hamper the region’s integration and cooperation efforts. Nevertheless, the regional nations’ quest for autonomy and independence may also open the door to creating a more resilient and self-sufficient regional cooperation model. Consequently, keeping a close watch on how upcoming changes may affect West African regional integration and cooperation procedures is essential. These dynamics will probably intensify interest in the region worldwide and have a regional impact on global policy.
In conclusion, new dynamics in Sahel geopolitics might be introduced by the ECOWAS and AES meetings. The Sahel nations’ attempts to create autonomous counterterrorism programs can potentially change the area’s security environment. This situation might affect the strategic calculations of international actors such as the United States, France, Russia, and China. The upcoming withdrawal of US forces from Niger also paves the way for geopolitical changes in the region. Thus, concerted efforts by Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali might result in favorable outcomes. AES’s efforts to develop autonomous security policies may significantly aid in creating a more robust and efficient security framework in the Sahel.
[i] “Le Burkina, le Mali et le Niger scellent la Confédération des États du Sahel”, Africa News, https://fr.africanews.com/2024/07/07/le-burkina-le-mali-et-le-niger-scellent-la-confederation-des-etats-du-sahel/, (Date of Accession: 09.07.2024).
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] Ibid.
[iv] “Création de la Confédération des États du Sahel: «Un acte très inquiétant pour les populations de ces pays»”, RFI, https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20240708-création-confédération-états-du-sahel-inquiétant-pour-les-populations-de-ces-pays, (Date of Accession: 09.07.2024).
[v] “La Cedeao menacée de «désintégration» après la création d’une confédération des pays du Sahel”, Jeune Afrique, https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1585695/politique/la-cedeao-menacee-dedesintegration-apres-la-creation-dune-confederation-des-pays-du-sahel/, (Date of Accession: 09.07.2024).
