Located on the eastern flank of Europe, Poland and Romania have recently witnessed developments through their elections that affect not only their national political balances but also the political future of the European Union (EU). Both countries are being closely observed in terms of the functioning of democratic institutions, the rule of law, and their integration processes with Europe. In Poland, opposition blocs have been rising against the long-standing conservative government, while in Romania, anti-corruption discourse and the search for stability have shaped voter preferences. The election processes in these two countries offer a critical perspective for understanding the dynamics shaping political orientations and public support in Eastern Europe.
Poland
The Presidential Elections to be held in Poland on 18 May 2025 are seen as a turning point not only in the country’s domestic politics but also in the future of the rising right-wing populism across Europe. The election is of critical importance in terms of enabling the centrist alliance led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk to shift the legislative-executive balance in its favor and overcome the institutional deadlock it has faced for the past two years.
Tusk came to power in 2023 by defeating the Law and Justice Party (PiS) through elections, drawing attention with his pro-European rhetoric and promises of institutional reform. However, the veto power of the current President Andrzej Duda has significantly limited the Tusk government’s reform efforts regarding the constitution, judiciary, and social issues.[1] In this context, the upcoming elections will not only determine a new president but also decide the fate of Tusk’s centrist agenda.
In this race, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, supported by Tusk, leads the polls with 33% of the vote. Trzaskowski stands out with his more liberal stance and has stated that he would immediately take steps to ease abortion laws, combat inflation, and re-establish judicial independence upon taking office[2]. His promise to deepen Poland’s integration with the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) demonstrates his intention to align the country more closely with the West in a strategic sense.
Trzaskowski’s strongest opponent is the PiS-backed independent candidate Karol Nawrocki. Known for his background as a historian, Nawrocki engages with voters on themes such as energy security and economic independence; his call for a referendum on the EU Green Deal appeals to national sensitivities in the agriculture and energy sectors.[3] Nawrocki’s rise signals that far-right movements are gaining new momentum in Poland, as in many other European countries.
Furthermore, the 22% support rate of Slawomir Mentzen, the candidate of the Konfederacja Alliance, indicates that a third force could play a decisive role in the election. Particularly popular among young male voters, Mentzen attracts attention with his tax reduction promises and anti-immigration rhetoric, even motivating previously politically disengaged groups to head to the polls. However, his conservative views on women’s rights raise serious concerns regarding gender equality.
In this context, the 2025 Polish Presidential Election represents not only a change in leadership but also holds historical importance in terms of Poland’s orientation within Europe, the future of democratic institutions, and the test of the far-right’s influence among the public. This election may also shape the course of right-wing populist movements displaying similar tendencies across Europe.
Romania
The recent election process in Romania is unfolding not only within the framework of domestic political dynamics but also within a multilayered crisis environment shaped by international influences. The elections held in December 2024, in which the far-right independent candidate Călin Georgescu led the first round, were annulled by the Constitutional Court due to allegations of interference by Russia. The annulment of election results at the constitutional level in an EU and NATO member state constitutes an exceptional situation in terms of electoral legitimacy.
Following the annulment, George Simion, emerging as the new candidate of far-right circles, currently leads public opinion polls, revealing the increasing traction of nationalist and Euro-skeptic rhetoric in the country. The rise of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), led by Simion, to become Romania’s second-largest political force indicates that accumulating anti-system sentiments among the public are now being channeled into an institutional form.[4]
This process also clearly reveals the fragility of the democratic system in Romania. Allegations of foreign interference in the elections have raised questions not only about ballot security but also about the country’s position within Europe. Social media manipulations, disinformation campaigns, and inter-institutional trust crises have made it necessary to redefine the concept of election security. In this context, the political polarization that followed the Constitutional Court’s annulment decision has created a new political space where European values clash with populist reflexes.
The re-election process to be held between 4–18 May 2025 has brought fundamental issues such as freedom of expression, democratic participation, and the fight against the far-right back to the forefront. Following the Russia-backed social media campaigns that brought Georgescu to prominence in the first round, another far-right candidate, Diana Șoșoacă, was also disqualified from the election, sparking debate over the boundary between democratic procedures and political exclusion.[5] Șoșoacă’s candidacy had previously been banned by the Constitutional Court due to her “statements contrary to democratic values,” a decision she protested by declaring, “I am the proof that we do not live in a democracy.”[6]
The decisions of the Romanian Electoral Commission are related not only to the social impact of far-right figures but also to the perceived threat these figures pose to the democratic order. In particular, George Simion’s statement that “Șoșoacă’s disqualification is another blow to Romanian democracy” reflects the far-right’s quest for legitimacy through anti-system rhetoric.[7] On the other hand, this process has also mobilized pro-European segments of society; thousands took to the streets in Bucharest to express their commitment to the EU.
All these developments show that the election process in Romania is not limited to political competition but also reflects deep structural tensions in terms of democracy, rule of law, and social polarization. Therefore, the election process should not be evaluated solely through voting behavior but also as a test of institutional resilience, freedom of expression, and resistance to external interference.
In conclusion, the cases of Poland and Romania clearly demonstrate the rise of the far-right in Europe and the growing political polarization that poses threats to democratic systems. While in Poland, the Tusk government has been unable to implement many reforms due to President Duda’s powers, in Romania, the rise of far-right figures has shown the strong resonance of nationalist and Euro-skeptic rhetoric. In both countries, elections are not only a matter of political preferences but also a critical test for the resilience of democratic institutions and the impact of populist movements. The future of Europe will depend on how these political trends evolve and how they affect existing democratic structures.
[1] Hélène Bienvenu, “Polish far right picks up steam as presidential election approaches”, Le Monde, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/03/15/in-poland-the-far-right-on-the-offensive-two-months-ahead-of-the-presidential-election_6739194_4.html, (Access Date: 09.04.2025).
[2] Iona Allan, “Tusk eyes chance to purge far right in Poland’s presidential election”, Chatham House, https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/the-world-today/2025-03/tusk-eyes-chance-purge-far-right-polands-presidential-election, (Access Date: 09.04.2025).
[3] Ibid.
[4] “Romania bans second far-right hopeful from presidential election rerun”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/15/romania-bans-second-far-right-hopeful-from-presidential-election-re-run, (Access Date: 09.04.2025).
[5] Monica Mihai, “As Romania gears up for presidential election rerun, who are the frontrunners?”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/04/04/as-romania-gears-up-for-presidential-election-rerun-who-are-the-frontrunners, (Access Date: 09.04.2025).
[6] Carmen Paun & Dato Parulava, “After Georgescu’s disqualification, here’s who’s running for president of Romania”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-president-election-2025-candidate-calin-georgescu-nicusor-dan-crin-antonescu-victor-ponta-elena-lasconi-george-simion/, (Access Date: 09.04.2025).
[7] Sarah Rainsford, “Fear and anger mount as ‘battle for the soul of Romanian democracy’ looms”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g7w3v5vw7o, (Access Date: 09.04.2025).
