Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Sri Lanka from April 4 to 6, 2025. This visit should be assessed not only within the framework of strengthening bilateral relations between the two countries, but also in the context of the emerging multi-actor power struggle in the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean. Through this visit, the two sides signed comprehensive agreements in various fields such as defense, energy, digitalization, and economic development, sending clear messages regarding regional power dynamics. At the same time, the visit served as a concrete reflection of India’s multi-dimensional foreign policy approach and its efforts to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the region.
One of the most notable developments of the visit was the signing of the first-ever defense cooperation agreement between India and Sri Lanka. Valid for five years, the memorandum covers a wide range of areas from joint maritime surveillance operations and the procurement of defense industry products to military training and high-level exercises. In this sense, the agreement can be interpreted not only as a step forward in the field of security, but also as a reflection of India’s intention to expand its strategic depth. Additionally, Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the Indian Peacekeeping Force Memorial in Colombo symbolized an effort to heal past political rifts stemming from earlier interventions.
In the field of energy security, the planned establishment of an energy hub in Trincomalee stands out as a key development. The project, to be implemented under a trilateral agreement between India, Sri Lanka, and the United Arab Emirates, envisions the modernization of oil storage infrastructure dating back to World War II, along with the installation of multi-product pipelines. Trincomalee holds strategic importance not only in terms of energy transportation, but also in shaping new maritime trade routes across the Indian Ocean. The project’s design aimed at integrating energy logistics and port infrastructure along the Gulf–India–Sri Lanka corridor represents a development that concerns not only India’s energy security, but also its maritime power projection capabilities.
The significance of this trilateral cooperation extends beyond economic benefits. The Trincomalee project holds the potential to generate direct geopolitical and military implications. In particular, the gradual opening of the Trincomalee Port to logistical support operations by the Indian Navy aligns with India’s strategy to expand its overseas sphere of influence. Considering that China has been increasing its influence over the Strait of Malacca through its maritime projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), India’s enhanced capability to monitor the southern Indian Ocean via Trincomalee could mark a new phase in the regional maritime power competition. As such, the project has become a critical cornerstone not only for energy transit but also for the evolving regional military balance.
In the realm of digitalization, India announced that it would provide both technical and financial assistance to Sri Lanka for the establishment of a digital identity infrastructure similar to India’s Aadhaar system. This move is seen as an extension of India’s ambition to exert regional influence not only in terms of physical security, but also in the domain of digital public governance. Data processing activities to be conducted through digital ID systems enhance India’s “soft power” capacity and enable deeper integration into Sri Lanka’s domestic administrative dynamics. This can also be viewed as part of a broader strategy aimed at establishing a sphere of influence in the field of digital development.
On the economic front, India has not only cultivated a friendly relationship with Sri Lanka by providing over $4 billion in financial assistance following the island nation’s major economic crisis in 2022, but also played a leading role in the negotiation process between Sri Lanka and the IMF within international financial institutions. Efforts to restructure debt, expand currency swap mechanisms, and diversify bilateral trade have been at the forefront of this initiative. Investments planned in sectors such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, and information technology are expected to further consolidate India’s position as a regional economic actor. In this way, India is moving toward a permanent and multi-faceted partnership model—not only in terms of security, but also through development diplomacy.
At the level of diplomatic discourse, Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake reaffirmed his support for India, declaring that his country would never be used against India in any way. However, despite this statement, Sri Lanka’s increasingly multi-aligned foreign policy has drawn attention. The $3.7 billion refinery agreement signed with China in January 2025 is indicative of Beijing’s ongoing efforts to maintain its economic influence in the country. Dissanayake’s decision to visit New Delhi first, followed by Beijing after assuming office, reflects Colombo’s continued strategy of balancing between the two major powers. This suggests that Sri Lanka is pursuing a foreign policy aimed not at siding with one power over the other, but at extracting strategic benefits from both.
Looking ahead, whether Sri Lanka’s foreign policy will lean more permanently toward India or China will largely depend on the country’s internal political stability and the foresight of its leadership. To sustain its current momentum with Colombo, India must expand cooperation not only in defense and energy, but also in areas such as environmental protection, fisheries, digital development, and education. Otherwise, Sri Lanka could once again tilt toward Beijing, drawn by China’s rapid financing and infrastructure development model. For this reason, Prime Minister Modi’s visit should be viewed not merely as a platform for current cooperation, but as a strategic turning point for the future of the Indian Ocean, the security of maritime routes, and the shaping of a multipolar global order.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Sri Lanka between April 4–6, 2025, reflects not only India’s strategy to deepen bilateral cooperation, but also its broader pursuit of institutionalizing regional influence in the face of China. In this context, the Trincomalee Energy Hub has become one of the most critical geostrategic projects in the region. By combining energy, logistics, and defense infrastructures under a single framework, this initiative is expected to serve as a reference point a “model partnership”within India’s foreign policy approach in the years ahead.
