Despite the diplomacy carried out after the Second Karabakh War ceasefire agreement signed by Azerbaijan and Armenia in Moscow on November 10, 2020, a lasting peace treaty has not yet been signed. Nevertheless, the peace agreement that the two nations will sign will guarantee the creation of an environment of regional cooperation, stability, and peace that was highlighted in the Six-Party Cooperation Platform proposal made by Turkey and Azerbaijan, and it will make it possible for the Caucasus geopolitics, particularly the Middle Corridor, to become the primary route of international trade routes. This will mean that the geopolitical and geo-economic importance of all regional states will increase and as a result they will benefit economically. In other words, the normalization processes in the region promise a prosperous future to the peoples of the region.
Although some negotiations are currently underway for the signing of a permanent peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan, it is also apparent that some incidents have the potential to thwart this effort. On the one hand, while there were warm contacts on the border of the two countries through the violation of the ceasefire; On the other hand, it is observed that the pro-war groups in Armenian politics increase the pressure on the political authority. This complicates the diplomatic processes carried out. For instance, Armenia occasionally witnesses demonstrations against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. But Yerevan has more to gain than anyone else from the establishment of peace. Armenia will be able to overcome its isolation from the rest of the world in this way, allowing it to open up to the West. And this will act as a bridge for the Armenian people to a prosperous future. Sometimes, it is not disregarded that third parties that would rather the conflict in the area stay a frozen conflict zone take steps to disrupt the process.
Both Azerbaijan and Armenia make an effort in this situation to avoid letting one actor take the initiative in the diplomatic efforts made to bring about peace. In this regard, Baku and Yerevan increased their contacts with Western actors in an effort to reduce the influence of Russia, the regional hegemon in the Caucasus, on diplomatic processes. This is why recent officials’ visits to Azerbaijan and Armenia have drawn attention. Likewise, the statements made from Baku and Yerevan are at a level that cannot be ignored.
The aforementioned visits and statements indicate that the USA and France are returning to the conflict in Karabakh. In other words, the peace process, in which Russia attempted to play the mediator alone, provided the conditions for the OSCE Minsk Trio to reunite, with the possibility that Washington and Paris would join Moscow.
In this context, first of all, to look at the Azerbaijan-based contacts and statements, it should be mentioned that Baku hosted the delegation of the European Parliament Foreign Relations Committee between 17-22 July 2022. It may be argued that the European Union (EU) has assumed a more prominent position in the peace process given that Pashinyan and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev previously held negotiations there, moderated by Charles Michel, President of the European Council. However, given that Michel is a Frenchman, it might be asserted that Paris made an effort to exert more influence over developments in the Caucasus. Due to this, it is important to take note of the fact that Mr. Aliyev greeted Emmanuel Macron on the anniversary of the French Revolution and stated that Baku intended to start a new chapter in terms of regional cooperation after the Karabakh War.[1]
In the Armenian side of the issue, the intensity of visits and statements is not to be underestimated. On July 15, 2022, the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns visited Yerevan. Undoubtedly, the visit in question is a concrete reflection of the effort of the USA to increase its influence on Armenia and to be included in the normalization processes in the region. On the other hand, Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan, speaking at an event held at the French Embassy in Armenia on the occasion of the anniversary of the French Revolution on 14 July 2022, stated that Yerevan gives importance to the participation of France in the solution process regarding Karabakh.[2]
As is clear, France and the United States are exerting more influence in diplomatic negotiations aimed at finding a long-term solution based in Karabakh. This position carries some risks even though it is motivated by the desire of both Baku and Yerevan to protect the initiative of peace processes from Russia. With the participation in the peace processes of the nations where the Armenian diaspora is strong, Armenia may be able to lessen the harm caused by the war it lost on the battlefield.
Contrary to popular belief, the role of France and the USA, two nations with large Armenian diasporas, may make it more difficult to achieve peace. In actuality, the participation of these two nations in the process with Russia; or, to put it another way, the return of the Minsk Trio signifies an effort to reach a solution from the parties who were unable to do so during the thirty-year occupation. It would not be surprising if this situation leads to a result that sees the deadlock as a solution. Moreover, the number of actors that will complicate the mediation processes will increase from one to three.
As a result, although the diplomatic process initiated after the Second Karabakh War at the point of the final solution of the Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia developed under the initiative of Russia, it is understood that the USA and France also want to be included in the negotiations at the current stage. However, both the fact that these countries are actors with large Armenian diasporas and the past failure of the Minsk Trio, which consists of the USA-France-Russia trio, poses the risk that the outcome of the process will evolve into a negative course. “So, what to do?” When the question is asked, the rational answer is that Baku and Yerevan should conduct the process at the same table without the need for a mediator. [3] and “We have already been informed that the Minsk Group will no longer operate. There is no need for the Minsk Group anymore[4] He gave the message of this with his statement. The parties’ ability to show this maturity will prevent the peace process from being sabotaged by tertiary actors.
[1] “Ильхам Алиев Эммануэлю Макрону: Азербайджан желает перевернуть страницу войны”, Vesti, https://vesti.az/politika/ilxam-aliev-emmanuelyu-makronu-azerbaidzan-zelaet-perevernut-stranicu-voiny-467500, (Erişim Tarihi: 18.07.2022).
[2] “Армения придает большое значение участию Франции в процессе карабахского урегулирования – Мгер Григорян”, Armenia Today, https://armeniatoday.news/politics-ru/501525/, (Erişim Tarihi: 18.07.2022).
[3] “Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev: “OSCE Minsk Group cannot be Revived, It is Dead””, JAM News, https://jam-news.net/azerbaijani-president-ilham-aliyev-osce-minsk-group-cannot-be-revived-it-is-dead/, (Erişim Tarihi: 19.07.2022).
[4] “President Aliyev: After Azerbaijan Settled Karabakh Conflict, There is No Need for Minsk Group”
