According to the latest report by the United States (US) Department of Defense (Pentagon), China’s nuclear warhead stock has increased rapidly over the past two years, reaching 400, and by 2035, if China continues to expand this stock at the current rate. It will have approximately 1,500 nuclear warheads.[1] On the other hand, as the legacy of the Cold War, it is estimated that the number of nuclear warheads of both Russia and the US is over 5 thousand.
On the other hand, for China to become the world leader, it is expected that its global deterrence will increase at reasonable levels as well as its economic performance. While the Beijing administration has not yet reached the nuclear stock levels of the great powers; China fears that it will suffer great destruction. This includes nuclear threats from Russia, too. China which is stating that there will be no winner in nuclear war also opposes the threat of using nuclear power.
China is troubled by nuclear threats from both Russia and North Korea and seeks to reduce the risk of such a war that would devastate it. For example, North Korea has recently declared that it will respond to US nuclear threats by firing an intercontinental ballistic missile. Upon this, Chinese President Xi Jinping wrote a letter to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un expressing that Beijing is willing to work with Pyongyang for world peace.[2]
China is also afraid of nuclear threats originating from Russia. Therefore, some Western analysts, reminding that there have been Russian-Chinese border conflicts in the past, argue that Russia may pose a threat to China on its eastern border, and therefore, China is always on the alert against Russia. For example, American military expert, Dr. John Callahan told the Express, emphasizing Russia “would not have a chance against China without nuclear weapons:”[3]
“Russia’s ability will be very limited, especially if we think that they will fight in Siberia. Let’s say, The Chinese invaded Siberia. In this case, the probability of the Russians using their nuclear weapons is high. Because they will have to leave Ukraine completely and take their heavy weapons to the other side of the world to fight the Chinese.”
Western media often talk about the possibility of a conflict or conflict between Russia and China. Especially, British press organizations want to create a perception that there is a disagreement between the two actors and set them against each other. Because England wants to rekindle these “frozen crises” between the parties. The aim here is to establish the similarity of China-India border disputes on the Moscow-Beijing line. In other words, the aim is to open the gap between Russia and China. And most convenient tool here is nuclear threats.
Moreover, statements in this direction are not limited to the United Kingdom. For example, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said during his Beijing visit that Jinping could use his influence over the Moscow administration to end the war in Ukraine. He also stated that they agreed that Russia’s nuclear threats were “extremely dangerous.” Chinese authorities have also confirmed their opposition to the use and threat of nuclear weapons in Eurasia. After these words, the Western powers saw that China’s “weak spot” was the war in Ukraine and rather the nuclear issue and tried to suppress Beijing over this issue.
According to the West, the way to get China on their side is to shoot him in the “weak spot.” In this direction, Western actors have constantly warned China about the “Russian threat” and pressured it to take a front against Moscow. After Scholz, both US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron asked Jinping for support in preventing nuclear threats during the G20 Summit.[4]
Jinping, on the other hand, was disturbed by the reflection of this issue in the press after the bilateral meetings. In this regard, he especially criticized Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.[5] Jinping told Trudeau that all the issues discussed at the meeting were leaked to the press and that this was not in line with diplomatic custom. Trudeau, on the other hand, stated that Canada is a transparent and open state and that these actions should be taken naturally.
Jinping suggested that the conditions be determined before sitting at the table in the meetings to be held from now on.[6] In other words, China wants to determine the conditions in advance so that the talks at the meeting are not leaked to the press. Sharing the nuclear issue with the press in the negotiations with Westerners may harm China’s relations with Russia. Beijing may begin to take measures to prevent this. In general, Jinping may be worried that after the talks in question, the West will leak the talk about Russia in general and the nuclear issue.
In his meeting with Charles Michel, President of the European Council, who visited Beijing upon an official invitation, Jinping called for a political solution to the Ukraine Crisis. At the meeting, Michel wanted Jinping to use his influence over Russia to end the war in Ukraine, just as Scholz and Macron did.[7] Thus, Beijing calls on Russia through Europe to end its war in Ukraine. It is meaningful for China to deliver this message through Europe.
As we can understand, Beijing has begun to show that it is uncomfortable with the prolongation of the war and especially with Moscow’s nuclear threats. However, China does not want this weakness to be seen by the West. Because Westerners will want to grab China by the “weak spot” and corner it and separate it from Russia. China intends to rein in Russia and prevent major nuclear destruction in the world. Apart from this, Beijing continues its strategic partnership with Moscow.
China did turn a blind eye to Russia’s threats to the West for a long time or remained silent. On the contrary, it cooperated with Moscow to wear down the West. Because the wear of the West is in China’s interest. But when there is a greater risk of war between Russia and the West, China backs down. Because he is aware that this war will harm his interests after a point. Moreover, China has the power to prevent Russia from using nuclear weapons. But if there is an actor who can convince Moscow, it is Beijing. Because China says that it is against the Cold War mentality. The Cold War is what Russia is already doing in its dealings with the West, and China seems to want to break that.
As a result, the anger of the West is directed against China as well as Russia. Beijing, on the other hand, has begun to see that its ties with Moscow are damaging its relations with the world. Therefore, by inviting Western states to Beijing, China expresses firsthand that it “is in favour of world peace” and “does not support Russia’s war.” In this sense, Beijing wants to express itself correctly to the West and reduce the risk of war without offending Moscow. The nuclear issue, on the other hand, comes to the forefront as a sensitive issue that could break China’s relations with Russia.
[1] “China Could Have 1,500 Nuclear Warheads By 2035: Pentagon Report”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/29/politics/china-nuclear-arsenal-military-power-report-pentagon/index.html, (Date of Accession: 02.12.2022).
[2] “Xi Tells Kim China Willing to Work with N. Korea for ‘World Peace’: KCNA”, Strait Times, https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chinas-xi-in-message-to-n-koreas-kim-says-willing-to-work-together-for-regional-global-stability-kcna, (Date of Accession: 02.12.2022).
[3] “Russia Vs China: Putin ‘Would Not Stand Chance’ Against Xi in Potential Military Standoff”, Express, https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1657052/putin-news-russia-china-putin-xi-nuclear-weapons-russia-latest-news-spt, (Date of Accession: 02.12.2022).
[4] “Macron Welcomes China’s Ability to Put Pressure on Russia”, Irish Times, https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2022/11/18/macron-welcomes-chinas-ability-to-put-pressure-on-russia/, (Date of Accession: 02.12.2022).
[5] “Chinese President Xi Jinping Scolds Canada’s Justin Trudeau for Leaking Meeting Details to The Press”, Sky, https://news.sky.com/story/chinese-president-xi-jinping-scolds-canadas-justin-trudeau-for-leaking-meeting-details-to-the-press-12749115, (Date of Accession: 02.12.2022).
[6] “Çin Devlet Başkanı Cinping Kameralar Karşısında Kanada Başbakanı Trudeau’yu Azarladı”, Tgrt Haber, https://www.tgrthaber.com.tr/dunya/cinping-kameralar-karsisinda-kanada-basbakani-trudeauyu-azarladi-2855757, (Date of Accession: 02.12.2022).
[7] “Remarks By President Charles Michel Following the Meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping”, Consilium, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/12/01/remarks-by-president-charles-michel-following-his-visit-to-china/,(Date of Accession: 02.12.2022).
