In August 2022, following the visit of Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the United States of America (USA) House of Representatives, to Taiwan , tensions in the Asia-Pacific region rose considerably. [1] It can be said that the Taiwan issue is a red line for China. At this point, it can be argued that the United States is forcing China to make a choice by pressuring it over Taiwan.
In this context, the visit to Taiwan by the new US Speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, seems to have created the same problems and raised tensions to the highest level. [2] Indeed, as Washington increases the pressure on Beijing, China will be forced to make a decision. It can be predicted that this decision will be the use of soft power instead of hard power. This is because China is unlikely to take action against Taiwan. However, it is quite possible that the West will use this rhetoric. However, if China does not react, the US may use this situation to portray China as an “unstable actor”. At this point, it can be inferred that China would not want to lose its legitimate ground by waging a struggle through peaceful diplomacy and the use of soft power.
The US aims to increase its pressure on China through Taiwan. As a matter of fact, such a situation could create a situation that would cross Beijing’s red lines. This is because Taiwan is one of China’s most sensitive points. At this point, it can be said that the US attaches extra importance to Taiwan within the scope of China’s containment policy. Visits of US delegations to China and trade agreements between the US and China can generally be read in this context. In addition, this tension is also dividing the region into two and regional states are forced to choose a side. As a matter of fact, the rising and rapidly increasing polarization in the region is making the security equation increasingly fragile.
It is known that a Pentagon official travelled to Taiwan before McCarthy’s visit. [3] Moreover, these contacts were secret The Taiwanese authorities did not make any statement or announcement and said that they were not aware of it. In short, the visit of the Pentagon official was deliberately concealed. The reason for this was the fear that China would move to prevent this visit.
China has consistently expressed its discomfort with the establishment of political and military ties between the US and Taiwan. There appears to be a difference between a parliamentarian and a military official visiting Taiwan. Beijing reacted strongly to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last August. It can be said that Beijing thought that the US was planning to send a message to the whole world by announcing this visit in advance.
It is known that the Pentagon is in constant contact with Taiwan and that cargo ships of the US air force frequently fly to Taiwan. This is seen as an ordinary event by China. It is not a move to change the status quo. The Deputy Secretary of Defence came to Taiwan secretly. This was not announced in advance. The real danger is that the US will turn such visits into a political show in the future. Any words and actions by the parties to provoke each other will significantly increase tensions in the region and thus the risk of war.
As a result, it can be argued that regional tensions will not decrease in the short term, but rather will increase with these mutual moves. In such a case, Taiwan and Beijing-Taipei relations will be instrumentalized by the West.
[1] “Since the Pelosi Visit, China Has Created a New Normal in the Taiwan Strait”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2023/08/since-the-pelosi-visit-china-has-created-a-new-normal-in-the-taiwan-strait/, (Erişim Tarihi: 06.09.2023).
[2] “for McCarthy and Taiwan’s Leader, Visit Marks Historic First”, Associated Press News, https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-president-tsai-mccarthy-china-4c733ac48cecdb3cc1ec1d3910027d3d, (Erişim Tarihi: 06.09.2023).
[3] “Pentagon’s top China Official Travels to Taiwan, Sources Say”, The National News, https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/us-news/2023/02/17/pentagons-top-china-official-travels-to-taiwan-sources-say/, (Erişim Tarihi: 06.09.2023).
