Standing out as the only candidate who managed to get 100 nominations from Conservative Members of Parliament (MP), Britain’s former finance minister Rishi Sunak has won the contest held in England to succeed Liz Truss after her resignation, becoming the new Tory leader. One of the major questions arising from this development is how Britain’s foreign policy will be shaped and will affect global politics in return.
To answer this question, the crisis over the United Kingdom (UK) Tory leadership in the last few months should be examined first. Last summer, a six-week election race within the Conservative Party was initiated to determine the candidate that would succeed Boris Johnson, who had stepped down after facing severe backlash due to the “Partygate” scandal. On 6 September 2022, after the final round of voting between Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss, the latter won the contest and become Britain’s Prime Minister.
The most debated issue during the race between the two contestants had been the steps to be taken to recover the economy. While Truss proposed tax cuts and reforms to improve the economy, Sunak warned of the risks of this policy concerning his experience as a former finance minister, and strictly objected to any change in tax rates.
On the other hand, relying on her former post as foreign minister, Truss criticized Sunak by arguing that he is inexperienced in world politics, and thus, could not defend British interests. Truss’ populist statements as such, mainly referring to China, were so impactful on voters that even Sunak had to come up with a similar stance and promise to get tough on China.
As Truss’s radical and populist views were well received by the MPs, moderate right winger Sunak had become overshadowed and lost the election race. The collapse of the Truss government after a six-week stint in office despite the previous popularity was met with surprise by Britain. This development is not surprising with an eye to Continental Europe’s perspective on threats originating from Russia-Ukraine, and China-Taiwan. Although radical tendencies are on the rise in Europe, there are ongoing efforts to establish a balance between foreign policy and the economy. The Truss government could not establish this balance in Britain. Truss’ radical attitude in foreign policy continued with her strident rhetoric addressing the economy. Hence, with the rapid depreciation of the British stock market and the sterling following the tax cuts decision taken by the new government, Truss could not overcome the initial shock and had to resign due to public pressure. In short, the cause of Truss’ failure was that she pursued a radical line both in foreign policy and in the economy.
About his former role as Finance Minister, Sunak has gained prominence as the strongest candidate capable of solving the economic crisis inherited from Truss, and his Premiership was guaranteed when Johnson withdrew from the contest. It can be said that Sunak’s warnings on Truss’ economic pledges during the elections last summer have proved to be right since enabled him to obtain the position. Now, the new priority of the government will be overcoming the economic crisis. Sunak comes to the front this time with his cautious and balanced attitude, keeping in mind the shock brought by the sudden depreciation of the sterling and the stock market performance. Therefore, there is a high level of confidence that the new government will overcome this crisis. Sunak’s cautious attitude will address not only the economy but also foreign policy.
It is estimated that Sunak’s foreign policy regarding both Russia and China will be more moderate than that of the Johnson government. This is because while Johnson is associated with both the moderate wing and the radical wing, Sunak is thought to be pursuing a more moderate line. For example, he is in favor of maintaining steady economic ties with China.[1] In this context, he still supports the British government’s plan to initiate the “Golden Era” by improving economic relations with China.
On the other hand, As Continental Europe is turning more cautious about the “China Threat”, the mercantilist attitude of Sunak may damage the harmony between Europe and the UK. For example, as the European Union held a meeting to discuss the third term of Xi Jinping and determine new policies, Germany and France argued that the union should be more prudent while maintaining economic ties with China and that they should not repeat the mistake seen in relations with Russia. Under these circumstances, Sunak’s discourse on initiating the Golden Era with China may lead to a deterioration in regional balances.
Among other splits, transatlantic relations may face severe deterioration. While Truss is a firm supporter of the United States (US) policies towards China, Sunak approaches China pragmatically. At a time when the Western World is raising its voice against Russia and China, the pragmatist and mercantilist stance of Sunak may damage the harmony between the US and England. More specifically, Sunak’s premiership may cause setbacks in Anglo-Saxon and transatlantic relations.
It seems that the US will feel the absence of the Truss government in Britain, considering its need for North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s support (and thus European support) during the Taiwan Crisis. For instance, Truss, who declared that Ukraine should be strongly supported, and even advocated preparations for Taiwan, has worn the “UK stands with Ukraine” badge on her collar during all her foreign visits. Speaking for the US, the Sunak government will not be keen on such policies.
One may assume that a prime minister change in Britain would not have a major impact on global geopolitics since British interests would remain the same. However, as the ways and methods of attaining these interests will change, its global reflections should not be underestimated. Although the foreign policy arguments of Truss and Sunak remain constant, it is estimated that there will be a significant difference between them in terms of their manners and discourses. Renowned for his moderate views in the UK, Sunak’s premiership will create a positive geopolitical fracture at a time when global competition, polarizations, and tensions are on the rise.
[1]“Where Does Each Potential Prime Minister Stand On China?”, Beijing Britain, https://beijingtobritain.substack.com/p/where-does-each-potential-prime-minister, (Date of Accession: 25.10.2022).
