In the 21st century, like the rest of the world, potential crisis points in the Asia-Pacific region have started to multiply, leading to a delicate balance of power. The growing military and technological capabilities of states, a long with their resolute efforts to safeguard their national borders, and maritime jurisdiction areas, have heightened security concerns in the Asia-Pacific.
In the Asia-Pacific seas, the high number of disputes between states can be seen as a key factor deepening security crises in the region. These areas include extremely sensitive maritime regions such as the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, the Strait of Malacca, the Taiwan Strait, the South and East China Seas, the Yellow Sea, and the Sea of Japan. One potential flashpoint in these regions is Taiwan, which Beijing considers an “internal matter” in accordance with China’s “One China” principle. Therefore, Beijing strongly opposes any actions taken by other states on this issue and makes it clear that it will resist when necessary.
Taiwan is situated in close proximity to Japan’s Okinawa Islands in the East China Sea. Due to this geopolitical location, Japan has started to pay more attention to potential risks related to Taiwan in its national security strategy documents in recent years. When questioned about this issue in the Japanese Parliament on November 7, 2025, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that a conflict involving Taiwan would be deemed “a situation that threatens Japan’s existence.”.[i] Indeed, Japan accepted the possibility of a military response to situations that threaten its national existence with the 2015 amendment to its Security Law. Therefore, Takaichi’s response implies that Japan will respond when a “security threat” related to Taiwan arises.
China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian responded strongly to Takaichi’s remarks, stating, “Japan should stop playing with fire on the Taiwan issue. Those who play with fire will be destroyed by it”.[ii] These reciprocal statements are the most recent example of how disputes in the Asia-Pacific seas could potentially escalate into a crisis.
Japan has ongoing territorial disputes with Russia, South Korea, and China over certain islands. Even more concerning is the potential for irreparable damage to relations between Japan and China due to the Taiwan issue. Japan’s historical disputes with its Asian neighbors make it challenging for its foreign policy to advance peacefully. Additionally, Japan’s ongoing development of its national defence and military capabilities, in collaboration with Western allies, as well as its zero-sum game and bloc mentality towards China, are having a negative impact on regional security and stability.
Japan’s deep involvement in Western security cooperation alongside South Korea and even India is leading to China’s exclusion and pushing it toward an opposing bloc. However, unity and solidarity among regional actors would enhance security and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific. Efforts by non-regional actors to become involved in Asia-Pacific security are leading to the spread of bloc formation and zero-sum game thinking in the region.
According to the security concept advocated by China and Russia, states should not jeopardize the security of others to ensure their own security. Beijing and Moscow often criticize the military-security actions of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member countries that extend to the Asian continent and seas. Japan is continuously updating its security policies to prepare for conflicts at micro or macro-level that may occur in its immediate vicinity, to create deterrence, and to be able to respond militarily to such conflicts. In this context, the Taiwan issue is being turned into a “security problem” for Japan, meaning it is being securitized. While China’s “One China” principle may view Taiwan as an “internal matter,” Japan’s framing of it as a security issue is undoubtedly a situation that could damage inter-state relations.
With the addition of the Taiwan issue to the tensions between China and Japan regarding the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, it is becoming increasingly challenging to build trust in their bilateral relations. This atmosphere of distrust is leading to a rise in the military capabilities and readiness of both sides, creating a security dilemma. The break down of communication channels in the military realm is also heightening the risk of potential conflict. However, the mutual economic dependence between the two nations serves as a factor that prevents this crisis of confidence from escalating. Notably, China remains Japan’s largest trading partner. In late October 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi met at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit and engaged in productive discussions. Takaichi mentioned that they had agreed to establish a “mutually beneficial strategic relationship”.[iii] On one hand, Japan desires to improve diplomatic relations with China, on the other hand, it is testing Beijing’s red lines by strengthening its ties with Taiwan.
To conclude, Japan’s policy of aligning with the West is still causing harm to its relationships with neighbor countries, especially China and Russia. The extension of the Cold War mentality to the Asia-Pacific region is leading to the division of the world into blocs. The Taiwan issue, which can be considered China’s red line, is seen by the West as a useful tool for creating such a polarized environment. Therefore, when establishing bilateral relations, it is in the interest of all parties to avoid being influenced by third parties and to focus on issues that provide mutual benefit. This will contribute not only to the region’s peace and security but also to that of the world.
[i] “China urges citizens not to visit Japan over Taiwan row”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crklvx2n7rzo, (Date of Access: 15.11.2025).
[ii] “World on brink after China threatens to attack Japan as WW3 fears explode”, Express, https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2133778/world-brink-china-threatens-attack-japan-ww3, (Date of Access: 15.11.2025).
[iii] “How Japan’s new prime minister has brought China’s ‘wolf warriors’ back out”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/12/asia/japan-takaichi-china-taiwan-analysis-intl-hnk, (Date of Access: 15.11.2025).
