Although two years have passed since the Moscow Declaration of 10 November 2020, a lasting peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia has yet to be reached. However, the negotiation processes between the parties are still ongoing. Although Russia’s mediation has been prominent in the two-year-long discussions on multiple platforms, the United States of America (USA) and France in particular, the European Union (EU), and the European Political Community (EPC) are emerging as key mediators following the Russia-Ukraine War. This situation, which may also be viewed as the return of the Minsk Trio, reflects the US-France duo’s efforts to limit Russian influence in the South Caucasus by turning the Ukrainian War into an opportunity.
Russia, on the other hand, does not want the West to increase its influence in the post-Soviet geography within the framework of the “Near Abroad Doctrine”, also known as the “Primakov Doctrine.” As a result, Russian President Vladimir Putin convened the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, and the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan in Sochi on October 31, 2022.
The summit is critical as it demonstrates that Russia does not wish to lose its role as a mediator in the South Caucasus normalization processes. The declaration issued following the summit, on the other hand, suggested that the Moscow government wished to retain its military presence in the region since it highlighted the necessity of the Russian Peacekeeping Force’s presence in the region.[1] Furthermore, it is expected that Baku and Yerevan will make no substantial objections to Russian military involvement, at least until the deadline in the Moscow Declaration.
At the same time, the declaration emphasized the need for a “peaceful solution,” stating that “Armenia and Azerbaijan have committed to avoid the use of force and the threat of using force.”[2] The remarks of Putin, who gave a speech following the summit, are particularly crucial in reflecting the tone of the leaders’ meeting:[3]
“I would like to emphasize that the meeting was extremely useful and timely. …[We have a] gift to both the Armenian friends, and the Azerbaijani friends. This is an olive branch, which symbolizes peace and prosperity. I hope that today’s agreements will be fulfilled and will create conditions for the next steps in the normalization of relations in the South Caucasus.”
Russia, as predicted, does not want to deal with new areas of conflict and war as a result of the effect of the Ukrainian War. Thus, Russia is taking care to portray itself as a “peacemaker” in the region.
Moreover, the Baku and Yerevan administrations have clearly shown that they are in favor of normalization. Mr. Aliyev expressed Baku’s approach in this context, saying, “The time has come to speak and act toward a normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia,”[4] while Pashinyan stated that Armenia is interested in removing barriers to regional communication and is prepared to decide on this issue.[5]
As can be seen, the leaders are committed to the process of achieving peace. Concrete steps can be expected to be taken regarding the inauguration of the Zangezur Corridor, which is seen as the biggest impediment to a permanent peace agreement. Indeed, Pashinyan’s statements indicating that regional communication barriers will be removed hint at this.
The efforts that will be made in this direction are in the interests of both Azerbaijan and Armenia. Because the Yerevan administration recognizes that establishing peace in the Caucasus in the framework of the corridors, particularly the Middle Corridor, would strengthen Armenia’s geoeconomic importance. As a result, the country will be able to open up to the rest of the world and attract foreign investment. Therefore, the welfare level of the Armenian people will increase.
Putin’s portrayal of the meeting as an olive branch extended to the entire region indicates that not only the developments regarding the signing of a permanent peace agreement on the Baku-Yerevan line but also the “6-Country Cooperation Platform” will come to the fore again. This suggests that a process that will improve regional security, collaboration, and prosperity is not far away.
On the other hand, it should be noted that the failure to sign a permanent peace agreement makes the ceasefire environment fragile. The recent clashes on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border have also confirmed this. Moreover, failure to take concrete steps despite well-intentioned statements creates an opportunity for third parties to sabotage the processes. In line with this awareness, the parties have already committed not to use force to solve the problems in Sochi through peaceful means.
Despite all of these positive efforts, two factors make the Pashinyan administration’s mission difficult. The first of these is the “Karabakh Clan”, which is effective in Armenian politics and advocates pro-occupation policies. The Clan may engage in several provocations, especially through the so-called Armenian state in Karabakh. The recent protests in the region also indicate this. The second factor is the calls being made by Armenians all over the world to organize similar protests, implying that the diasporas are being mobilized. Because Yerevan recognizes that the trends that would sabotage the peace will essentially impoverish the Armenian people, it is taking a cautious stance. Therefore, Pashinyan may take the lead by taking more concrete moves toward permanent peace.
In conclusion, the summit, which took place in Sochi on October 31, 2022, demonstrated Baku and Yerevan’s willingness to improve ties, as well as Moscow’s determination to maintain its role of being a mediator in the Karabakh conflict. Even though Armenia’s internal dynamics hindered the Pashinyan administration’s ability to act, the Prime Minister of Armenia sent a message that he is aware that his country’s interests demand the signature of a permanent peace agreement, including the inauguration of the Zangezur Corridor. This means that the Sochi Summit took place in a constructive atmosphere and was an extremely productive meeting. Therefore, it is possible to argue that the normalization processes in the region will accelerate and efforts to establish the “6-Country Cooperation Platform” will intensify in this context.
[1] “Joint Statement from Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia”, CNN Turkey, https://www.cnnturk.com/dunya/putin-aliyev-ve-pasinyan-arasindaki-uclu-zirve-socide-basladi, (Date of Accession: 01.11.2022).
[2] Ibid.
[3] “Putin Says Hopes Sochi Talks’ Agreements on Karabakh Will be Observed”, TASS, https://tass.com/world/1367163, (Date of Accession: 01.11.2022).
[4] “Aliyev Says Time Has Come to Normalize Relations between Azerbaijan, Armenia”, TASS, https://tass.com/world/1530373, (Date of Accession: 01.11.2022).
[5] “Russian Approaches to Armenian-Azerbaijani Normalization and Karabakh Issue Acceptable to Armenia-Pashinyan”, Arka News Agency, http://arka.am/en/news/politics/russian_approaches_to_armenian_azerbaijan_normalization_and_karabakh_issue_acceptable_to_armenia_pas/, (Date of Accession: 01.11.2022).
