The beginning of trilateral talks between the leaders of China, Japan and South Korea traces back to 1999 in Manila on the sidelines of summit conferences affiliated with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).[1] Since 2008, the trilateral leaders’ summit has evolved to operate independently from ASEAN gatherings, with each of the three nations taking turns in assuming the presidency.[2] The upcoming summit meetings scheduled for May 26-27, 2024, five years after the last one held in 2019 amidst unresolved disputes and the Covid-19 pandemic, bear significant importance in comprehending the evolving dynamics in bilateral and multilateral relations.
The upcoming trilateral summit is particularly needed during a period where trust and cooperation among the three countries have weakened, especially in the wake of alliances forming in the Asia-Pacific region. Alongside these developments, multiple crises such as the Ukraine Crisis, North Korea’s escalation of nuclear activities and provocations on the peninsula, geopolitical tensions, and disruptions in industrial supply chains highlight the necessity for closer cooperation and deeper exchange of ideas among China, Japan, and South Korea.
The governments’ participation in the summit scheduled for May to address the persistent challenges in trilateral relations among China, Japan, and South Korea by discussing their existing concerns at the negotiating table holds significance in terms of regional security. Along with this, the summit may encompass discussions on diverse collaborative initiatives in realms spanning people-to-people exchanges, trade, technology, public health, sustainable development, and security. Indeed, former Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has articulated that increased people-to-people exchanges among the three countries will strengthen public support for regional cooperation.[3]
Given the prevailing uncertainty surrounding the forthcoming presidential elections scheduled for November 2024 in the United States, substantial responsibilities are incumbent upon the three countries to uphold regional stability. The convening of the summit aimed at facilitating the exchange of concerns and explore potential areas for cooperation among the three countries, prior to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit scheduled for July 2024 in the United States, might prompt South Korea and Japan to consider China’s concerns in their engagements with Washington.China expects both South Korea and Japan to demonstrate resistance against ideological polarization within the region.[4]
China, the primary trading partner for both South Korea and Japan, is perturbed by the growing political and military presence of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, while expressing concern over the prospect of these countries establishing an official trilateral alliance with the United States. In this context, the annual summits held with South Korea and Japan are of critical importance for China. Indeed, China’s economic power serves as a significant tool in urging regional countries to pursue a balancing policy between China and the United States within alliance systems led by the latter. The adoption of a pragmatic approach by ASEAN countries in the context of China-US competition, whereby they benefit from trade and economic relations with China while simultaneously pursuing a balanced policy to maintain strong relations with the US, exemplifies policies shaped under the influence of China’s economic power.
One of the most important driving forces that brought China, Japan, and South Korea together at the tripartite summit over the years has been North Korea’s destabilizing behavior and its nuclear missile program activities in the vicinity of the Korean Peninsula. The last round of the Six-Party Talks, involving China, Japan, South Korea, Russia, the United States, and North Korea in 2009, proved unsuccessful to eliminate North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and capabilities, thereby leaving the trilateral dialogue among China, Japan, and South Korea as one of the few paths to address the existential threat.[5]
In this context, one of the primary motivations for South Korea and Japan in the trilateral summit is for China, with its significant influence over North Korea, to play a constructive role in restraining North Korea’s nuclear activities. The upcoming summit, the first since 2019 due to strained South Korea-Japan relations, exemplifies the efforts of these countries to go beyond historical conflicts and increase cooperation in response to North Korea’s advancing nuclear program and other shared challenges.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized that his country has always played a constructive role in easing tensions on the Korean Peninsula and described China as a “stabilizing force” in the region.[6] The prolonged role of China as a longstanding ally and the primary trading partner of North Korea has, in fact, facilitated it to leverage its influence to bring North Korea to the negotiation table.
The strategy in addressing North Korea’s nuclear weapons activities may undergo alterations at the summit scheduled for May. Indeed, during the trilateral summit held in 2018, former South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who adopted a more conciliatory stance towards North Korea, advocated for the international community to “put rewards on the table instead of demanding North Korea’s unconditional denuclearization”.[7]
At the last summit held among the three countries in 2019, former South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha, who shared similar views with President Moon Jae-in, represented South Korea. Given that this year’s summit will be chaired by the leader of the conservative party in South Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol, harsher responses regarding North Korea’s nuclear activities can be expected at the summit.
It is anticipated that alongside discussions on security issues, the trilateral summit will also encompass deliberations on cooperation within economic domains. Particularly, the restarting of negotiations pertaining to free trade agreements among the three countries may be envisaged. Indeed, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang expressed this aspiration in November 2023.[8] Along with this, it has been claimed that in the event of Trump’s re-election in the US presidential election, tariffs of up to 60% could be imposed on imports from China. Considering this situation, it is understandable that China, as the largest trading partner of Japan and South Korea, would seek to expand commercial cooperation to mitigate potential economic challenges it may face. In this context, it can be expected that China will emphasize more trade partnerships with neighboring countries in the region in the economic domain.
In conclusion, the trilateral summit among China, Japan, and South Korea reflects the increasingly evident regional security and cooperation needs, particularly highlighted by escalating tensions in recent years. These summits address not only regional security threats such as North Korea’s escalating provocations and nuclear weapons program but also China’s growing economic power. Furthermore, these summits play a significant role in advancing economic and strategic objectives, such as strengthening regional trade partnerships and preserving stability in the region. The alliance relationships between South Korea and Japan with the United States are expected to serve as crucial balancing factors in regional cooperation and equilibrium policies. Bringing together the three countries prior to the NATO summit scheduled for July 2024 to share mutual concerns and potential areas of collaboration could be a crucial step in understanding and shaping regional dynamics.
[1] “Japan, China and South Korea still out of step over summit”, The Japan Times, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/02/09/japan/politics/japan-china-south-korea-summit/, (Date of Access: 10.05.2024).
[2] Ibid.
[3] “China-Japan-South Korea Trilateral (Finally) Meets Again”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2018/05/china-japan-south-korea-trilateral-finally-meets-again/, (Date of Access: 10.05.2024).
[4] “China, Japan, South Korea seek summit in latest bid to ease relations”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-china-japan-top-diplomats-seek-boost-trilateral-cooperation-2023-11-26/, (Date of Access: 09.05.2024).
[5] “Pursuing Rapprochement Between China, Japan, and South Korea”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2024/04/pursuing-rapprochement-between-china-japan-and-south-korea/, (Date of Access: 09.05.2024).
[6] “South Korea, Japan and China Agree to Resume Trilateral Leaders’ Summit, but Without Specific Date”, Voice of America, https://www.voanews.com/a/south-korea-japan-and-china-agree-to-resume-trilateral-leaders-summit-but-without-specific-date-/7370772.html, (Date of Access: 10.05.2024).
[7] “China-Japan-South Korea Trilateral (Finally) Meets Again”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2018/05/china-japan-south-korea-trilateral-finally-meets-again/, (Date of Access: 10.05.2024).
[8] “China, Japan, South Korea seek summit in latest bid to ease relations”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-china-japan-top-diplomats-seek-boost-trilateral-cooperation-2023-11-26/, (Date of Access: 09.05.2024).
