The United States’ decision to withdraw from Afghanistan after a 20-year occupation and Afghanistan’s fall into the hands of the Taliban caused some concerns in Taiwan. The main concern in this regard is the idea that the USA can expose and abandon the Taiwan. Likewise China sees Taiwan as a part of its territory and tries to unite it with the mainland. Taiwan has been living under the threat of war and occupation by China for a long time. Therefore, one of the heated debates in the field of international relations is whether the United States will defend Taiwan if Beijing launches an operation to unite with Taiwan. Many analysts have compared the US decision to withdraw from Afghanistan to Taiwan. In this context, analyzes suggesting that the USA may give up on Taiwan are said in the international press.
Chang Ching, a research fellow at the Taiwan-based Strategic Studies Association, told Global Times on August 16, 2021[1]:
“As part of its latest efforts to play the “Taiwan card” in countering China, the Biden administration recently announced it would hold a virtual Summit for Democracy, which excited the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authority of Taiwan. Since taking office in January, US President Joe Biden has taken various measures to demonstrate its deterrent against China, such as deploying military aircraft to the island, sending warships across the Taiwan Straits several times and dispatching senior officials to visit the island, blatantly playing the “Taiwan card” to ruffle China’s feathers.
However, the failure of the US in Afghanistan should serve as a warning to the secessionists in the island, who have to understand that they cannot count on Washington, as Afghanistan is not the first place where the US abandoned its allies, nor will it be the last, experts warned.”
In addition, Global Times, one of China’s nationalist newspapers, described the situation in the region as “the unreliability of the US’s loyalty to its allies” and published an article stating that “when a war broke out in the Taiwan Strait, the defense of the island would collapse within hours and American soldiers would not come to help[2].” So is this really the case?
Looking at the commitments and measures taken by the Washington administration is the first thing to do to answer this. However, the point that needs to be examined beyond this is how much great states can tolerate loss of image. Making use of historical examples in this regard helps to understand the situation. But first, the US’s commitments to Taiwan and the importance of the region should be looked at.
The Washington administration, which recognized Taiwan officially as the Republic of China until 1979, it maintains its diplomatic relations through the Taiwan Relations Act, which was enacted after this date. However, Taiwan is not recognized as a state by the Washington administration and there is no clear alliance between the United States and Taiwan. Indeed, the Taiwan Relations Act does not make such a commitment. Therefore, the policy implemented by the USA for many years has been called ‘strategic uncertainty.’
The USA’s support to Taiwan remained unfulfilled in the face of China’s threats to invade the island and declares that it opposes the unilateral activities of the Beijing administration. However, while there is a historical decline in relations on the Washington-Beijing line, concerns about China’s attack on Taiwan are increasing and it is thought that the US policy may change.
Many military analysts argue that now is the time for the US to reconsider its policy of ‘strategic uncertainty’ for defense of Taiwan. Critics point out to this policy that the military balance in the region has changed in favor of China and that strategic uncertainty has become unsustainable in this environment.[3] In this regard, the recent statements announced by the Washington administration are an important indicator. “We believe our commitments to our allies and partners are sacred,” Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said at a press conference, and added: “Our commitment to Taiwan and Israel is stronger than ever.”[4]
More importantly, Biden himself was asked in an interview made by the ABC News whether the effects of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan would be reflected on Taiwan. Biden stated that there is a different situation in Taiwan than Afghanistan, and he said “(…) we are trying to keep bad guys from doing bad things to them[5].” He continued: “We have made and kept every commitment. We made a sacred commitment to Article 5 that if, in fact, anyone were to invade or take action against our NATO allies, we would respond. Same with Japan, same with South Korea, same with Taiwan. It’s not even comparable to talk about that[6].” As can be seen, although there is no formal alliance agreement between the USA and Taiwan, the commitments of the Washington administration to Taiwan remain strong.
It is obvious that Taiwan is important for the USA. Therefore, comparisons with Afghanistan are not appropriate. Above all, Taiwan has a modern and capable army and navy and one of the most equipped air forces in Asia. Also, since Taiwan is a good model for democracy, the fact that democratic countries consider themselves responsible for the defense of Taiwan also makes Taiwan important to Washington. Moreover, Taiwan draws attention with its geopolitical importance, because an unexpected conflict between Taiwan and China will have significant effects on both the Asia-Pacific and the Indo-Pacific. Besides, Taiwan stands out in terms of technology. Because it plays a critical role in the global high-tech supply chain that produces many of the world’s most modern electronic devices.[7]
When we look at how far the great states can tolerate the loss of image in the international arena, it is possible to give two good examples in this regard from the 20th century. The first is a crisis leads to total war though its preventable nature. As it is known, when the Austro-Hungarian Empire annexed Bosnia and Herzegovina in October 1908, Serbia – which reacted to the occupation, could not get support from its ally Russia and Russia’s ally France. After this, the Serbian administration decided to prevent the advance of Austria-Hungary in the Balkans at all costs. In this event, Russia and France lost their image on the international stage because they did not support their allies, and Serbia made it difficult for Austria-Hungary to expand in the Balkans. Thus, the assassination of the Austro-Hungarian heir Joseph Ferdinanz in Sarajevo in June 1914 put Russia and France on a path from which they could not return, and caused the outbreak of the World War I.
The second historical example that can be given in this regard is about the Republic of Turkey and its founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. Atatürk, who made diplomatic attempts to annex Hatay in the 1930s, said: “Pasha, why are you upsetting yourself so much? If you send a division of soldiers tomorrow, you will take Hatay. What did the French do when the Germans entered Renani? Those who do not take action for Renani, will they go to war with Turkey for a district of Syria?” is asked[8]. Atatürk was learned good lessons from history, and answered, “Yes, if I send a division of soldier tomorrow morning, I can take Hatay. The French, who do not take action for Renani, will not go to war with us for a Syrian district. I know that too. But what if they make it a matter of honor this time? It is not clear what the nations will do. I cannot drag Turkey into the danger of war for a district.”[9] As can be understood from Atatürk’s answer, the French, who lost prestige and image in Renani in 1936, might not want to experience this again in Syria.
As a result, with the withdrawal of the USA from Afghanistan, analyzes comparing Taiwan to Afghanistan have become popular. However, it is clear that the findings in this direction are detached from reality. Because Taiwan is not like Afghanistan at all. It remains important for Washington as a trump card that can be used against Beijing. It is also unlikely that the United States will give up Taiwan soon. Therefore, it is not correct to interpret the US withdrawal from Afghanistan as this country may give up on Taiwan. In this sense, the Washington administration cannot afford to leave Taiwan. Because such a situation will create a trust problem in the actors cooperating with the USA from all over the world. So if China launches a military attack on Taiwan, it is likely to start a war with the United States. [10]
[1] “Afghanistan Today, Taiwan Tomorrow? US Treachery Scares DPP”, Global Times,https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1231635.shtml, (Accessed Date: 20.08.2021).
[2] “Why US Will Lose A War with China over Taiwan Island”, Global Times,https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1222217.shtml, (Accessed Date: 19.08.2021).
[3] “Will US Make Clear-cut Commitment to Defend Taiwan From China?”, VOA NEWS,https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/voa-news-china/will-us-make-clear-cut-commitment-defend-taiwan-china,(Accessed Date: 19.08.2021)
[4] “U.S. Reaffirms Commitment to Taiwan After Leaving Afghanistan”, Bloomberg,https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-18/u-s-reaffirms-commitment-to-taiwan-after-leaving-afghanistan, (Accessed Date: 20.08.2021).
[5] “US Position on Taiwan Unchanged Despite Biden Comment, Says Official”, The Straits Times,https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/us-position-on-taiwan-unchanged-despite-biden-comment-says-official,(Acceseds Date: 20.08.2021).
[6] Ibid.
[7] “What the Fall of Afghanistan Means for Taiwan”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2021/08/what-the-fall-of-afghanistan-means-for-taiwan/, (Accessed Date: 20.08.2021).
[8] Falih Rıfkı Atay, Çankaya, (İstanbul: Pozitif Yayınevi, 2020).
[9] Ibid.
