2022, being the 74th anniversary of the establishment of North Korea, was recorded as the year that the country reached the highest threat level in the international arena. As a matter of fact, in 2022, Pyongyang increased its nuclear power more than ever before, and conducted dozens of short and long range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests. Moreover, it passed the law that declared itself as a nuclear power and caused nuclear concerns to reach the highest level with security concerns both in the Asia-Pacific region and globally.
As a matter of fact, this situation forced the Western alliance led by the United States of America (USA) to take many precautions and take moves to deter North Korea. In this respect, some exercises were held in cooperation with the USA, South Korea and Japan on the region, many harsh statements were made and Pyongyang was repeatedly condemned.
All these developments did not produce any result other than provoking North Korea more, in short, the policies of the West were ineffective. In addition, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) tried to take sanction decisions against North Korea’s nuclear activities, but these decisions were met with the veto of China and Russia. In short, the Western-based South Korea-Japan alliance, which was established under the leadership of the USA and the USA on the region, could not get what it wanted.
Based on those events, it can be determined that the threat posed by North Korea will not decrease in the near future, and that by 2023 it will even surpass the level of threat in 2022. As a matter of fact, current developments provide important examples to make this determination.
Firstly, on 16 December 2022, the North Korean State Official News Agency (KCNA) stated that the country was in the development phase of a new strategic weapon, that this weapon was a “high-thrust solid fuel” engine, and that this engine was under the supervision of Kim Jong Un and North Korea’s Sohae Satellite. KCNA has also reported that it had been tested in a test conducted at the Launch Site. At the same time, it was stated that Pyongyang would accelerate its nuclear missile programs on the occasion of this test.[1]
Later, on December 18, 2022, the South Korean General Staff said that two medium-range ballistic missiles fired from the Tongchang-ri region of North Korea were detected. In the statement, it is stated that the missiles were fired in a high orbit and flew about 500 kilometers (km), and that South Korean and US intelligence analyzed the launch “taking into account the latest trends in North Korea’s missile development”.[2]
Then, on December 19, 2022, KCNA said that North Korea aimed to develop a “spy satellite” and that an important test was carried out by evaluating the process in question. Again in the same news, it was emphasized that this satellite was aimed to be completed in April 2023 if everything goes well.[3]
As it can be understood, Pyongyang does not decrease the quantity of its trials, but also increases the quality of its trials. Moreover, the country is designing new devices such as “spy satellite” and “high thrust solid fuel engine”. As a matter of fact, all these give an idea that 2023 will be much more proactive for North Korea compared to 2022.
Due to both geographical conditions and geostrategic conjuncture, some states feel the danger posed by North Korea much more closely. This has pushed the states, which feel the danger more closely compared to their other stakeholders, and especially South Korea, which is one of these states, to new searches for deterring the North Korea, which it cannot deter through alliances and exercises.
As a matter of fact, Seoul asked Beijing to increase its efforts to denuclearize Pyongyang and return it to negotiations, and said that North Korea’s return to dialogue would be an important development in their “common interests”. The request was made in an online meeting between South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.[4] At this point, it is quite remarkable that South Korea, which is in a Western-based alliance in the region, makes demands from China instead of the USA and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
In addition, in a statement to the media, Eom Dong-hwan, Minister of the South Korean Defense Procurement Program Administration (DAPA), said that they have developed domestic weapons of war, defense and surveillance systems against North Korean threats. In addition, Eom stated that the domestic three-axis defense system, consisting of the Kill Chain preventive attack mechanism, the Korean Air and Missile Defense (KAMD), and the Korea Major Punishment and Retaliation systems (KMPR), is rapidly gaining importance.[5] This again means that South Korea aims to “take care of itself”.
At the same time, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol asked the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to assist in denuclearization of North Korea and expressed his concerns about Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs.[6]
As can be expected, South Korea is one of the countries that are disturbed by Pyongyang’s actions. Because, ignoring the alliance it has established with Washington and Tokyo in the region as well as the UNSC, Seoul seeks help from China and the IAEA and tries to increase its own military capacity. As a result, Seoul seems to have focused on ensuring its own national security due to the threat it perceived from Pyongyang and positioned its national interests above its relations with the USA and the West.
[1] “North Korea Says It Tested “High-Thrust Solid-Fuel Motor”, Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/16/north-korea-says-it-tested-high-thrust-solid-fuel-motor, (Date of Accesion: 23.12.2022).
[2] “North Korea Fires 2 Ballistic Missiles: Seoul’s Military”, Channel News Asia, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/north-korea-fires-2-ballistic-missiles-seouls-military-3152991, (Date of Accesion: 23.12.2022).
[3] “North Korea Confirms “Important” Spy Satellite Test for April Launch”, Channel News Asia, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/north-korea-confirms-important-spy-satellite-test-april-launch-3153841, (Date of Accesion: 23.12.2022).
[4] “S. Korea Asks for China’s Support to Engage N. Korea”, Asia News Network, https://asianews.network/s-korea-asks-for-chinas-support-to-engage-n-korea/, (Date of Accesion: 23.12.2022).
[5] “South Korea to Develop Homegrown Combat Weapons Against North Korean Threat”, Asia News Network, https://asianews.network/south-korea-to-develop-homegrown-combat-weapons-against-north-korean-threat/, (Date of Accesion: 24.12.2022).
[6] “S. Korea President Yoon Asks IAEA to Help Denuclearize N. Korea”, NHK, https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20221216_02, (Date of Accesion: 24.12.2022).
