Already tense relations with Russia worsened after South Korean Defence Minister Shin Won-sik’s statements on “full support” for Ukraine. Moscow warned of a “complete break” in bilateral relations with Seoul.[1] South Korea’s abandonment of its balanced foreign policy and its full inclusion in the Western axis further deepens regional polarisation. Thus, an indirect rapprochement or axis emerges between China, North Korea and Russia. In other words, South Korea has sought more political-military support from Western powers due to the threats originating mostly from North Korea. In this context, South Korea’s rapprochement with the West harms its relations with China and Russia.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO) footprint in the Asia-Pacific is increasing, which is disturbing actors such as China, North Korea and Russia. For example, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited South Korea and Japan in early 2023, where he discussed the war in Ukraine as well as security issues related to China and North Korea.[2] In return for support in the Asia-Pacific, NATO expects its allies there to support the security of Europe. In other words, the Western world demands a common stance against Russia in the war in Ukraine.
It should be recalled that in December 2022, South Korea followed the lead of other Western allies and published its Indo-Pacific Strategy Paper, stating that it is a “Global Pivot Country” with which the whole world can cooperate on regional security issues[3]. More recently, Japan announced that it would increase its coordination with the United States of America (USA) as part of its National Defence and Security Strategy. Eventually, both countries started to come together due to the security risks they perceived from North Korea and China.
Beijing’s failure to take a stand against Moscow in the Russian-Ukrainian War and North Korea’s frequent missile tests during this period caused concern among Western allies such as Japan and South Korea. The Western world is trying to impose on South Korea and Japan the fear that the example in Ukraine will be repeated in the Asia-Pacific, this time by China. Due to this perception created by the West, the actors in the Asia-Pacific have not only strengthened their defence cooperation among themselves, but have also put it on their agenda to benefit from the security guarantees offered by the West.
A consensus has started to emerge between Europe and its allies in the Asia-Pacific. Accordingly, the crisis in Europe may be repeated in the Asia-Pacific in the near future, this time over Taiwan. As a result, the leaders of South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand attended the NATO Summits in Madrid in 2022 and Vilnius in 2023 as observers. In this way, the security agendas of Europe and the Asia-Pacific have begun to harmonise.
Asia-Pacific countries, such as South Korea and Japan, are seeking greater support from NATO in their fight against China and North Korea in exchange for greater European support in the war in Ukraine. What is more dangerous here is the emerging polarisation in the Asia-Pacific. The war in Ukraine has led to a complete polarisation between Europe and Russia. As similar fears of war spread to the Asia-Pacific, this time China and North Korea are being pushed to the opposite pole by the West.
It does not seem possible for actors such as South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, which can be considered as allies of the West in the region, to counter North Korea and Russia with their combined defence capacities. This means a significant security vacuum for the Asia-Pacific. It is certain that these states will fail to protect their regional security without the help of Western great powers. In view of this reality, actors such as South Korea and Japan have been considering certain guarantees from NATO to help regional security. In this context, South Korea may come to see the United States and NATO as an important and sole source of deterrence, especially in the face of nuclear threats from North Korea.
Keeping the Asia-Pacific free and open is closely linked to South Korea’s national security. In this context, the Seoul administration avoids making moves that would deepen the crisis in the region and trigger a major coalition war. It is known that there is no way to resist North Korea’s nuclear weapons. Every defence-security move taken by South Korea leads to further armament of North Korea. In the realist paradigm, this is referred to as the security dilemma. If South Korea develops its military capacity under the direction of the West and gradually moves away from dialogue, it will become a target for North Korea and Russia. In simple terms, this is a move by the US to further deepen the crisis in the Asia-Pacific through alliances. South Korea needs to strike a balance between China, its largest trading partner, and the United States, its main military ally. Seoul’s search for this delicate balance may determine the future of the Asia-Pacific.
[1] “Russia, South Korea Hold Tense Security Talks in Seoul”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/russia-south-korea-hold-tense-security-talks-in-seoul/3127323, (Access Date: 06.02.2024).
[2] “Nato Cements Ties With South Korea, Japan As Security Challenges Mount”, SCMP, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3207863/nato-cements-ties-south-korea-japan-security-challenges-mount, (Access Date: 06.02.2024).
[3] “Strategy for a Free, Peaceful and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region”, The Government of Republic of Korea, https://www.mofa.go.kr/viewer/skin/doc.html?fn=20221228060752073.pdf&rs=/viewer/result/202212, (Access Date: 06.02.2024).
