The President of the United States, Joe Biden, stated during his visit to Vietnam on September 10, 2023, that they were not seeking hostility with China and did not want to encircle it. [1] In response, China characterized Biden’s Vietnam visit as a continuation of the Cold War mentality. [2] However, the United States’ approach to Vietnam is indeed part of its strategy to contain China. Despite this, China emphasizes the importance of diplomacy and dialogue in its relations with Washington. In general, Beijing is against polarization and alliances, so it values keeping the channels of dialogue with the U.S. open. However, the danger lies in the possibility of the U.S. exploiting these channels to challenge China’s red lines.
China’s President Xi Jinping’s absence from the G20 Summit in India and the subsequent possibility of a meeting with President Biden were interpreted as signs of escalating tensions in the Western world. In an effort to maintain open communication with China, the U.S. intensified diplomatic efforts to arrange a potential meeting between Xi and Biden, with high-level diplomats from both sides frequently meeting in Malta. [3] Both countries, especially Washington, are exploring ways to engage in sincere and constructive dialogue before the Xi-Biden meeting. Global and regional security concerns, developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the situation in the Taiwan Strait are major issues occupying the agenda of bilateral relations.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the parties agreed to hold high-level bilateral consultations on Asia-Pacific, maritime, and foreign policy issues.[4] . It’s worth noting that after the visit of Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022, China announced retaliatory measures, including suspending the defense dialogue mechanism. Over the past year, U.S. Department of Defense officials have been making efforts to restart the dialogue mechanism with China to prevent a potential crisis.
Washington remains hopeful that military communication between the two sides can be reestablished, while China is determined to make the U.S. pay for Pelosi’s Taiwan visit. The “Spy Balloon” incident has further escalated tensions between China and the U.S. [5]During that time, Biden emphasized that the U.S. pursued “competition, not conflict.” The incident was seen as China’s retaliation against the U.S., given the aggressive stance Washington had taken against China. [6]
Despite warnings, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was viewed by China as an attempt to humiliate its national dignity. Consequently, China decided to adopt a proactive stance against the U.S., symbolized by flying balloons in American airspace. [7] When the U.S. wanted to discuss the balloon incident, China refused, claiming that the U.S. did not create a suitable atmosphere for dialogue. According to China, the U.S. consistently displayed aggressive behavior. Following this tension in bilateral relations, a series of developments in the region have further heightened tensions. Military exercises in the Asia-Pacific, dialogues, and increased Western contacts with Taiwanese officials have drawn China’s ire. [8] Despite this tension, China always leaves the door open for dialogue with the U.S.
However, the benefit of this dialogue is debatable. Ostensibly, China seems to gain the most. The timing works against the U.S., considering China’s current economic growth rate and military modernization plans, suggesting significant milestones around 2027 and 2036. By 2027, the Chinese military will be fully modernized, and by 2036, China is projected to surpass the U.S. as the world’s largest economy.
On the other hand, the U.S. calculates that it has a ten-year window to curb China’s rise.
Consequently, the U.S. is expected to develop new policies and create crises to limit China. In essence, the U.S. will benefit from these moderate relations because it can use regional instability and security gaps as reasons to form its coalitions. China’s silence in response to these actions will enable the U.S. to advance its interests. While the U.S. continues its provocative moves, it avoids pushing China to a point where it might take drastic action. Hence, the U.S. attempts not to cross China’s red lines. This was evident in Biden’s Vietnam visit, where he explicitly stated that the U.S. was not targeting China. However, the challenge lies in the U.S. not fully understanding China’s red lines. Engaging in dialogue with China helps the U.S. learn about these boundaries, allowing it to move forward cautiously.
In conclusion, the U.S. is making efforts to stabilize bilateral relations, aiming to establish a balance. During his Vietnam visit, Biden emphasized that the U.S. did not intend to encircle China. If the relationship stabilizes as it was before Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, Washington will have an opportunity to advance further. However, the weak dialogue between the U.S. and China increases the risk of potential warfare in the region, a risk the U.S. cannot afford to take.
[1] “Biden Insists He’s Not Trying To ‘Contain’ China As He Courts Beijing’s Rivals”, NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/biden-insists-s-not-trying-contain-china-courts-beijings-rivals-rcna104273, (Erişim Tarihi: 18.09.2023).
[2] “US Should ‘Abandon Cold War Mentality,’ China Says On Biden’s Vietnam Trip”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/us-should-abandon-cold-war-mentality-china-says-on-biden-s-vietnam-trip/2982935, (Erişim Tarihi: 18.09.2023).
[3] “Top US And Chinese Diplomats Meet İn Malta To Smooth Strained Relations”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/17/china-united-states-jake-sullivan-wang-yi-meeting-malta, (Erişim Tarihi: 18.09.2023).
[4] Same place
[5] “Biden’s Dramatic Warning To China”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/08/politics/china-biden-state-of-the-union/index.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 18.09.2023).
[6] Aynı yer.
[7] “Xi Jinping Tells Joe Biden Not To ‘Play With Fire’ Over Taiwan in Two-Hour Call”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/28/xi-jinping-tells-joe-biden-not-to-play-with-fire-over-taiwan-in-two-hour-call, (Erişim Tarihi: 18.09.2023).
[8] “Chinese Balloon Saga: China Confirms It Rejected US Offer Of Defence Minister Talks”, SCMP, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3209662/chinese-balloon-saga-china-confirms-it-rejected-us-offer-defence-minister-talks, (Erişim Tarihi: 18.09.2023).
