Although it has been nearly a year since the withdrawal of the United States of America (USA) from Afghanistan, it cannot be said that a fully functioning order has been established in the country. There is already a severe economic crisis in the country, and this is triggering humanitarian crisis. Moreover, Afghanistan’s has other problems as well. Because the government established by the Taliban has not yet been officially recognized by any state. This causes the country to experience diplomatic problems and makes it difficult for it to participate in international projects. Furthermore, the security environment has not been established in Afghanistan. Because, on the one hand, it is seen that the Panjshir Movement, the anti-Taliban opposition organization, is trying to increase its actions; on the other hand, it is observed that the terrorist organization State of Iraq and Damascus (DAESH) has increased the activities of the so-called Emirate of Khorasan (ISKP).
All these developments lead to the idea that the claims that the main plan in the US withdrawal process is to plunge Afghanistan and the region in general into chaos may be justified. In that case the question of “What kind of chaos?” needs to be answered.
Presumably, the first stage of the chaos plan is aimed at plunging Afghanistan into a civil war. As a matter of fact, both the reduction of aid to Afghanistan, the difficulty of attracting investments in parallel with the Taliban’s recognition problem, and the confiscation of Afghanistan’s national reserves condemn the Afghan people to poverty. The purpose here is to make the impoverished Afghan people adopt the idea that the Taliban has failed to govern the country despite coming to power and finally to activate a social uprising. However, the issue is not limited with this.
In the context of civil war scenarios, the overt support of some countries and the covert support given to the Panjshir Movement by some states is in a dimension that cannot be ignored. At this point, the efforts of Ahmed Masood, the leader of the Panjshir Movement, to unite all opposition groups under the name of the “Supreme Council of National Resistance” can be interpreted as a harbinger that an armed struggle against the Taliban may also be launched. Then, what is the role assigned to the terrorist organization DAESH?
In fact, the great powers that use terrorist organizations as proxy actors in various conflict zones seem to be in anticipation of the terrorist organization DAESH playing the dirtiest game in the context of civil war scenarios. Because when the actions of the aforementioned terrorist organization are examined, it is understood that it is trying to both wear down the Taliban and plunge Afghanistan into a sectarian war, as well as open Taliban’s legitimacy to debate, and in doing so trigger a regional war.
To clarify this idea, it is known that the terrorist organization ISKP, which operates in Afghanistan on behalf of DAESH, has been organizing in this country for a long time. The presence and activities of the terrorist organization in Afghanistan have found a place on the agenda of the international public opinion with the Kabul Airport attack which took place in August 2021.
Afterwards, DAESH made one’s mark for itself with attacks on Taliban elements and Shiite mosques. While this indicates that the main purpose of the organization is the overthrowal of the Taliban administration; it clearly shows that the organization is playing with the nerve endings of the country in terms of Afghanistan’s drift into sectarian war. Because a civil war that will break out in Afghanistan may firstly evolve into a sectarian war, and therefore turn into a proxy war, and then into a regional war. As a matter of fact, the second phase of the chaos plan is exactly here; that is, it is associated with the possibility of regional war.
As can be expected, Afghanistan’s descent into civil war will further deepen the atmosphere of insecurity in the country. This, in turn, may lead to the fact that various radical groups, especially the terrorist organization DAESH, benefiting from the power vacuum that will occur.
Terrorist organizations here can export instability and terror by radicalizing the Muslims of East Turkestan and therefore China through the Wakhan Corridor, and the Muslims of Russia through Central Asia. At this phase, if it is remembered that many groups operating in the states of the region in parallel with the terrorist organization DAESH’s claim of a so-called global caliphate have pledged allegiance to the ISKP, the risk of the issue evolving into a regional war will be better understood.
At this point, assuming that the US withdrawal plan is a chaos scenario, it can be argued that through DAESH, the country is being destabilized and wanted to be plunged into a civil war that will last for many years. Since such chaos could result in the destabilization of China and Russia, the two rivals of the US in the global power struggle. In other words, the US, which cannot build a lasting peace in Afghanistan and therefore cannot control Eurasian geopolitics, may have constructed its withdrawal strategy in line with the aim of destabilizing the geography it cannot control and therefore its rivals. But can these claims be true?
Although it should be noted that the mentioned allegations are an assumption that emerged because of the discussion of various scenarios, the statements of Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi at the conference titled “Security and Economic Development of Afghanistan” in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, in July 2022, revealed that the idea of a chaos plan is too serious to be denied. Because Muttaqi asserted that 1800 DAESH member terrorists were released by the ousted regime on the day Kabul came under the control of the Taliban. This is a claim that needs to be discussed.
Consequently, US relations with terrorist organizations are not a new deal. When it is remembered that the terrorist organization DAESH moved from Syria to Afghanistan under American escort, there is a possibility that this plan will become a reality. Therefore, Muttaqi’s claims are quite important. Because it is known that the Ashraf Ghani regime was controlled by the US and that both US figures and US collaborators assumed critical public duties at that time. This can be assessed as the fact that the US may have made the final hit by releasing DAESH member terrorists while withdrawing.
The role assigned to the terrorist organization DAESH may be that it contributes to Afghanistan’s descent into civil war, plays a decisive role in turning this war into a sectarian war if it breaks out, and leads the spread of sectarian war to the entire region in the context of radicalization.
The role assigned to the terrorist organization Daesh may be that it contributes to Afghanistan’s descent into civil war, plays a decisive role in turning this war into a sectarian war if it breaks out, and leads the spread of sectarian war to the entire region in the context of radicalization. As a matter of fact, the fact that the terrorist organization the claims to have carried out missile attacks on Uzbekistan and Tajikistan from time to time reveals the extent of the danger.
 “متقی: هنگام سقوط کابل یک هزار ۸۰۰ داعشی از بگرام و پلچرخی آزاد شدند”, Etilaatroz, https://www.etilaatroz.com/148914/motaghi-when-kabul-fell-1800-isis-fighters-were-released-from-bagram-and-pulcharkhi/, (Date of Accession: 28.07.2022).