In the last months of 2022, it has been observed that the construction work regarding the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline increased. In this sense, it can be said that Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have demonstrated a serious will.
In fact, although this issue dates back to the 2000s, it could not be finalized, especially in the 2010s, due to the opposition of the Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom. However, following the Russian-Ukrainian War, Western investors’ interest in Caspian-based projects has increased.
There are various reasons for this situation. First, despite the European Union’s (EU) commitments to green energy, the EU is turning to the resources of Central Asia to overcome the energy crisis. This has opened the door to a louder discussion of the need for the integration of Turkmen natural gas to the Azerbaijan-based Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) and its continuation, the Trans-Adriatic Natural Gas Pipeline (TAP). As a matter of fact, Azerbaijani and Turkmenistan natural gas is considered to be the most reasonable choice that can fill the gap in the European market caused by the sanctions imposed on Russian natural gas.
Secondly, the West seeks to break Russia’s influence in the post-Soviet space. This increases the geopolitical importance of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Although Moscow will take some steps to avoid losing Baku and Ashgabat, it can be said that Western actors want to include Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan among the actors with whom they have developed deep cooperation through various projects.
Therefore, Europe believes that its success in diversifying its energy suppliers can be crowned with the geopolitical containment of Russia. This is why the EU attaches great importance to Caspian-centered projects.
Plus, these projects will not only help Europe overcome its energy crisis, but also fight inflation. Furthermore, this would contribute to European security and democracy. This is because efforts to end dependence on Russia have led to the rise of far-right sentiments among impoverished European populations. In other words, it can be argued that energy cooperation with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan will also contribute to the preservation of Europe’s position in terms of values.
In conclusion, the Russia-Ukraine war has led the West to search for alternatives to Russian natural gas, but no permanent solution has yet been found. At this point, it is seen that the West has shifted its attention to Caspian-centered projects. Therefore, the Trans-Caspian Natural Gas Pipeline is once again on the agenda. This project will not only weaken Russia’s hand in terms of energy, but also offer the EU the opportunity to develop cooperation with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. It will therefore limit Moscow’s influence in the post-Soviet space. Moreover, this solution can also be interpreted as a solution to limit the far-right in terms of protecting European democracy and values.
