On 1 August 2023, Mikhail Podolyak, Advisor to the Ukrainian President’s Office, stated that the war would soon move completely to Russian territory. [1] It is known that since June 2023, the Ukrainian Army has launched a “counter-offensive” against Russia. In this context, it is noteworthy that the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) leadership and its member states, in particular, are trying to accelerate the supply of air defence systems, tanks, fighter jets and long-range missiles to Kiev.
The debate on the supply of Leopard-2 tanks and F-16s to Ukraine dates back to last year. It should be recalled that at that time Germany had long opposed the delivery of Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine. Berlin had only one condition for doing so. That was that the Western allies should support Ukraine in the same way. Protracted negotiations yielded results and Washington agreed to send American-made M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine to enable Ukraine to launch attacks against Russia. [2]
Also during this period, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski repeatedly stated that they were insufficient in the airspace against Russia and insistently asked Europe for help in this regard. His calls yielded results and some Scandinavian and Northern European countries, especially the United States of America (USA), announced that they would send F-16s to Ukraine . [3] In addition, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that Ukraine urgently needs air defence.[4] While rapid progress is expected in Ukraine’s counter-attacks, a number of technical challenges remain, such as the delivery of German and American tanks and training for their use, as well as the training of F-16 pilots.
During a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Vladimir Zelenski on 21 September 2023, US President Joe Biden said that he would send ATACMS long-range missiles to Ukraine. [5] However, until now, the US had refrained from sending this system to Ukraine for the fear that Ukraine would use it to hit targets inside Russia and spread the conflict to a wider area. However, the US has abandoned this strategy and started to favour Ukraine to carry the war to Russian territory. In fact, it can be said that the pressures of the USA and the UK were effective in Ukraine’s decision. Because this also represents the West’s war against Russia and China.
Within Europe, Germany, too, has a negative view of Ukraine’s taking the war to Russian territory. For this purpose, Ukraine requested long-range Taurus missiles from Germany, but Germany did not agree to deliver them to Kiev and even made efforts to shorten their range.[6] The US decision to send long-range missiles to Ukraine could therefore serve as a guideline for Germany to follow suit.
It seems that the US is calling on European countries, and Germany in particular, to provide more assistance to Ukraine, while refraining from doing so itself. However, Germany also expects this support from the United States. In short, the White House’s decision to send long-range missiles to Ukraine is largely intended to encourage Germany to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine.
Stoltenberg stated that the war in Ukraine will be long-lasting and that the only way to end the war is to speed up arms deliveries to Kiev.[7] “Refusing or delaying the transfer of modern weapons to the Ukrainian armed forces is a direct incentive for the Kremlin to continue the war,” Stoltenberg said.[8] Stoltenberg, who gave the most important message to the USA, said: “If the USA wants to deal with China, it must first ensure that Ukraine wins.”[9] According to Stoltenberg, if Europe emerges victorious from the war in Ukraine as soon as possible, it can easily turn to the fight against China. This is also in the interests of the United States. [10] Realising this, the US and Britain are forcing the European countries to increase their military aid to Kiev in order to achieve a decisive victory in Ukraine. Because without the end of the war right next to Europe, these countries will not be able to lift their heads and turn towards China.
On the other hand, China’s calls to Russia to end the war in Ukraine are also noteworthy. This war is causing the Western powers to focus their energies on Europe. If the war in Ukraine ends, perhaps the whole of Europe will be engaged in a struggle with China. China, on the other hand, favours stability and peace in the world. Beijing’s aim is to gain Russia’s support in the Asia-Pacific. The way to do this is to end the war in Ukraine. The US plan is to distract Russia with new crises in Europe. However, these crises also distract Europe in the same way. In this dilemma, the US will try to continue its struggle both in Europe and in Asia-Pacific simultaneously.
[1] “Ukrayna: Savaş Yakında Tamamen Rusya Topraklarına Taşınacak”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/ukrayna-savas-yakinda-tamamen-rusya-topraklarina-tasinacak/2959011, (Erişim Tarihi: 23.09.2023).
[2] “Ukraine Will Receive M1 Abrams Tanks for Counteroffensive, Says US”, Euro News, https://www.euronews.com/2023/09/19/ukraine-will-receive-m1-abrams-tanks-for-counteroffensive-says-us, (Erişim Tarihi: 23.09.2023).
[3] “ABD, Danimarka ve Hollanda’nın Ukrayna’ya F-16 Göndermesine İzin Verdi”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/turkce/articles/cw89v1q3qnyo, (Erişim Tarihi: 23.09.2023).
[4] “NATO Chief: Ukraine Urgently Needs Air Defenses”, Euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/nato-chief-ukraine-urgently-needs-air-defenses/, (Erişim Tarihi: 23.09.2023).
[5] “US Will Send Ukraine ATACMS Long-Range Missiles, Joe Biden Tells Volodymyr Zelensky, According to Report”, SCMP, https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3235549/us-will-send-ukraine-atacms-long-range-missiles-joe-biden-tells-volodymyr-zelensky-report-says, (Erişim Tarihi: 23.09.2023).
[6] “Germany Mulls Sending Ukraine Taurus Long-Range Missiles”, Liga Net, https://news.liga.net/en/politics/news/berlin-obsujdaet-s-mbda-postavku-ukraine-modifitsirovannyh-krylatyh-raket-taurus-reuters, (Erişim Tarihi: 23.09.2023).
[7] “NATO Chief Warns Ukraine Allies to Prepare For ‘Long War’”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-chief-jens-stoltenberg-warns-ukraine-allies-to-prepare-for-long-war/, (Erişim Tarihi: 23.09.2023).
[8] Same page.
[9] “NATO Chief: US Has to Ensure Ukraine Wins İf İt Wants to Deal with China”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/nato-chief-us-has-to-ensure-ukraine-wins-if-it-wants-to-deal-with-china/2998104, (Erişim Tarihi: 23.09.2023).
[10] [10] Aynı yer.
