The allies of the United States of America (USA) in the Asia-Pacific are increasingly supporting the strategy of encircling China. These countries include, in particular, the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. The Philippines and Japan are of particular importance in that they signed formal security agreements with the US in the early 1950s. However, it should be noted that a formal defence partnership has not yet been established between these three countries. Should the US establish a new defence-security pact with the Philippines and Japan, it is expected that this step will serve its strategy of encircling China.
If these countries fail to follow a restrained line in their foreign policies, they are likely to be dragged into possible crises in the region. It is noteworthy that the US has reiterated its commitment to protect the Philippines against a possible attack. In the last two years, the US-Philippines partnership has rapidly increased. Manila has clearly begun to position itself on the opposite pole to Beijing. The recent visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the Philippines also points to this.
On 11 April 2024, a trilateral defence cooperation mechanism is expected to be established during the summit between US President Joe Biden, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House.
In addition to the United States, the Philippines is rapidly expanding its military partnerships with regional allies, notably Australia and Japan. At the beginning of 2023, Manila allocated four additional military bases for US use. Moreover, the two countries had just concluded the largest ever “Balikatan Military Exercise”.
The strategic positions of the Philippines and Japan cause these countries to play a critical role in the US strategy to contain China. This is because the Philippines has come to be seen as the forward deployment base of the US in the South China Sea. As the US accelerates its strategy of containment of China, the number of bilateral, trilateral and quadrilateral dialogue mechanisms in the region is increasing. Such partnerships could lead to further deterioration of the regional security environment. Beijing argues that Washington is trying to create a polarisation in the region through these states. Accordingly, the US is trying to drive a wedge between the regional states and China. On the other hand, it can be said that China constantly calls for dialogue and cooperation in order to improve relations with the Philippines and reduce tensions. Although both sides are willing to develop dialogue, recent tensions in the South China Sea prevent this.
Taiwan and the South China Sea can be characterised as crises artificially magnified by the US. The fact that Taiwan is very close to the Philippines makes Manila very important in the US strategy of encircling Beijing. The US aims to intimidate China by saying that it will protect the Philippines and Japan to the end. In addition to the coordination between the three countries, Japan and the Philippines are in talks to sign a reciprocal access agreement (RAA), which would allow for mutual dialogue in each other’s territories. All three countries have repeatedly expressed common “concerns” in the East and South China Sea.
As a reflection of these new collaborations with the US and Japan, the Philippines announced its “complete separation” from many major infrastructure projects carried out jointly with China as of 5 November 2023.[1] Although the US is trying to distance the Philippines economically from China, its infrastructure investments in this country are quite limited. This is because the US is not at a level to compete with China in the region, especially in economic terms. For this, the US will first need to significantly increase its investments in the region. On the other hand, considering the presence of Asian actors such as Japan and India in Southeast Asia, it becomes inevitable for the US to focus on infrastructure and transport projects in order to compete with these countries. In the long run, the US is unlikely to be able to assert its weight as a political, economic and military partner in Southeast Asia.
It does not seem to be a rational choice for the Philippines, which has exited the Belt and Road Initiative, to completely confront China. However, it should not be forgotten that states have difficulty in making rational decisions, especially in times of crisis. In such a period, the Philippines and Japan have started to pursue a dangerous policy of polarisation against China by relying on the support of the US. For many years, the Philippines has endeavoured to stay out of the US-China rivalry. However, it has recently moved far away from observing this balance. It is very difficult for the US to fill the gap left by China at the economic-investment level in the Philippines. As a result, it seems inevitable that Manila and Tokyo will both face a more challenging security environment and become more economically vulnerable if they continue to follow Washington’s lead.
[1] “First Italy, Now Philippines Jumps Off The Belt And Road Bandwagon: Is Xi Jinping’s BRI Exploitative?”, Wionews, https://www.wionews.com/world/first-italy-now-philippines-jumps-off-the-belt-and-road-bandwagon-is-xi-jinpings-bri-exploitative-655395, (Date of Access: 02.04.2024).
