India hosted Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (RATS) meeting, which is an organ of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), to examine terrorist threats in Eurasia especially in Afghanistan, between 16-19 May 2022. Pakistan, which is one of the nine members of the organization, has sent a commission for summit in New Delhi.[1] Since March 2022, India has attempted for organizing military drills and challenging against terrorism. Lastly on March 25, 2022, it was decided to realize two military drills under SCO, in the RATS meeting in Tashkent, headed by India. The first common anti-terrorism drill was decided to operate on October 2022 in New Delhi, was named as “Manesar-Antiterror 2022”. The second one was “Friendship Border”, which is expected to be exercised under SCO in Kazakhstan.
It is significant that India and Pakistan have met in SCO meetings, led by China, although they do not show up in regional meeting. For instance, in 2021, a community from India came to the city of Pabbi in Pakistan to join SCO-RATS drills.[2] All of those developments demonstrate that, recently, SCO members and especially India and Pakistan have shown that they are intended to cooperate for Eurasian security. Because latest developments in Europe and Pacific left no option but cooperation for regional security. In other words, the world may not deal with another new and more important crisis in Asia, while security threats are escalating due to Taiwan after Ukraine.
In addition to Europe and Pacific, security risks in Asia became evident. Therefore, there are too many reasons for India and Pakistan to come together. Primarily, as in the whole world, regional political-economic-security environment dynamically changes. The actors that were enemies to each other yesterday can search for cooperation ways the other day. The most concrete example for this happened in Pakistan. At the end of Imran Khan period, it was observed inclination towards China and Russia; in current situation Islamabad administration is trying realizing rapprochement with the United States of America (US). That means, Pakistan’s foreign policy is reshaping again with the new administration of Shahbaz Sharif. Regarding that, Washington administration has started to revise policies on Pakistan and India.
Besides that, there are escalating numbers of terrorist attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan. In addition, border dispute between China and India is continuing without any appeasement. On the other hand, Western powers such as the US and Canada are involved in questions regarding Tibet Autonomous Region of China. For example, US Special Coordinator for Tibetan Issues Uzra Zeya has visited India on May 17, 2022, for focusing on cooperation on human rights, democracy, and governance.[3]
All those developments point out that security risks will escalate over Pakistan-India-China line. That means security of Eurasia is in a threat. It is questioned that whether the regional actors are aware of those dangers. In the current situation, China and India coming together under SCO, may find themselves into a new conflict in the border in future. Similarly, if actors out of the region and especially USA escalates terror, Pakistan’s relations with China and India may worsen.
Increasing problems of terror in Afghanistan and Pakistan and in that sense dangerous situation of Eurasia is not a coincidence. From a wider perspective, Europe is dealing with their own problems due to Russian-Ukrainian War.
On the other hand, China’s military and security moves towards Taiwan risk the security of the Pacific. Developments based on Afghanistan and Pakistan may waste the moves for unification in Eurasia. This is how the Westerners believed: Russia and China are acting together by moving in a coordination in their close environment.
This situation will cause increase of the positions of Russia and China together and decreasing of the West. Eurasian security is threatened by three ways. Those are based on China, the USA and Russia.
Firstly, China may threaten Eurasian security since she copies Russia’s attack on Ukraine. To put it more clearly, China concluded positive lessons from Russian-Ukrainian War for herself. Regarding that, Pekin has seen that starting a land war or a hybrid war, as Russia did, is quite important for building global hegemony. In that sense, China could take Russia as an example, and may start security moves in Central Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Kashmir. As China would not start a war resembling Russia’s war, at least she may aim to protect those war fronts in the West, keeping the tension high, and intervene if it is needed. Both the officials of American intelligence and the officials of India are expressing that China is trying to open a new front in the Western border of China or trying to keep Kashmir front always alive.[4] Therefore, even India tries to solve border disputes, China may not approach this in a positive manner.
Secondly, the USA is risking Eurasian security intentionally. She demands to contain China and pressure her by escalating terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan. That means Washington desires to contain Beijing in Eurasia after Pacific. This can be identified as “opening two different fronts against China.”
Kashmir and terrorism issue is the red flag of India. Since the USA knows this, she may focus on this crisis between China and India. In that sense, the evaluations claiming that Washington is trying to suspend New Delhi from Beijing and Islamabad, are significant. For instance, officials from the US have explained that India will use S-400 missile systems against the threats coming from China and Pakistan.[5] In short, Washington may be trying to use the terror problems in India’s inner circle to distance New Delhi from Beijing, Islamabad and Moscow. In addition, by provoking the Tibetan Question, it tries to open the gap between India and China. If India tries to get more involved in issues like Tibet; China may launch new attacks on the border and attempt to completely seize the territories it claims (Aksai Chin and Aranucal Paradesh).
Thirdly, Russia may pose a security threat not only to Europe but also to the greater Eurasian geography. Western powers have realized that it will not be enough to stop Russia only in Europe, and that additional measures must be taken in Eurasia. Because it does not seem like a reasonable solution to make this geography open to the influence of Russia and China and to expect each other to clash. According to the West, it is necessary to engage Russia and China with new and big security problems in Eurasia. It has been the mistake of the West to expect China to clash with Russia. On the contrary, Beijing draws positive lessons for itself from Russia’s Ukraine War and stays away from confronting Moscow in Eurasia.
After all, while Westerners were interested in Russia in Eastern Europe; China is starting to become a bigger problem in both Asia and the Pacific. However, Westerners do not know how to deal with either Russia or China. The best solution they have found is to foment terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In this way, it is aimed to remove India from the Pakistan-Russia-China axis. In this context, the responsibility of New Delhi for the security of Eurasia is very important. The coming together of Pakistan, India and China in the fight against terrorism is not only in Eurasia; can change the balance of power all over the world. However, considering that China will act together with Russia, at least for a while, it can be said that Beijing may fail or disappoint especially New Delhi and Islamabad.
[1] “India Hosts Key Meet to Counter Terror Threats in Eurasia, Including Af-Pak”, Economic Times, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-hosts-key-meet-to-counter-terror-threats-in-eurasia-including-af-pak/articleshow/91607343.cms, (Date of Accession: 18.05.2022).
[2] “China, Russia, Pakistan to Attend SCO Anti-Terror Meet in Delhi”, The Hindu, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/china-russia-pakistan-teams-to-attend-sco-anti-terror-meeting-in-delhi-next-week/article65411734.ece, (Date of Accession: 18.05.2022).
[3] “US Special Envoy for Tibetan Issues Arrives in India”, The Print, https://theprint.in/world/us-special-envoy-for-tibetan-issues-arrives-in-india/958969/, (Date of Accession: 18.05.2022).
[4] “US Intelligence Says India-China Relations Will “Remain Strained”, NDTV, https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/us-intelligence-says-india-china-relations-will-remain-strained-2964540, (Date of Accession: 11.05.2022); “‘China Intends to Keep Boundary Issue Alive,’ Says General Manoj Pande”, Hindustan Times, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/china-intends-to-keep-boundary-issue-alive-says-general-manoj-pande-101652110284228.html, (Date of Accession: 11.05.2022).
[5] “ABD, Hindistan’ı Rusya Silahlarından Silah Yardım Paketi ile Vazgeçmek İstiyor”, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-17/us-seeks-to-wean-india-from-russia-weapons-with-arms-aid-package, (Date of Accession: 18.05.2022).
