Developments in the Far East affect the geopolitical environment in the rest of the world. Due to its national capacity, China’s relations with other states and especially with its neighbours create a domino effect and direct global politics. In this context, the recent developments in China-Japan relations are the capacity to change the agenda and politics not only of the Far East but also of Europe and the Western World in general. The main reason for this is that Japan is first and foremost a G7 country and is seen as part of the Western camp due to its democratic structure.
China has many reasons to keep its relations with Japan good. The first is that it aims to break the West’s prejudiced attitude towards it and end its political hostility. Second, Japan aims to soften the crisis environment caused by this polarization policy of the West and to reduce the tension regarding Taiwan in this context. Third, the Tokyo administration desires to accurately explain its principles in foreign policy and to paint an image of a peaceful country. The fourth and most pragmatic reason is Japan’s plans to maximize its political, economic, and military interests in the region by softening its foreign policy environment and reducing geopolitical tensions.
Beijing’s foreign policy interests require positive relations with the actors allied with the United States (US), especially Japan. However, the geopolitical environment does not allow China to achieve these goals. Beijing argues that the US is primarily responsible for this tense geopolitical environment. According to Beijing, it is the Washington administration that has agitated and provoked Japan, Australia, and India against it. The effects of this are seen in Japan’s view of China. For the past two years, it has been seen that the annual reports of the Japanese Ministry of Defense have given more space to the “Chinese threat” than necessary, and the 2022 report has focused on the Taiwan Issue.
Also in this process, Beijing drew attention to the importance of developing bilateral relations by sending moderate messages to Tokyo as the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties with Japan approached. However, as tensions with the US continued, it carried on its security patrols and exercises in the Sea of Japan, the South China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait, thus aiming to deter its rivals. The US, on the other hand, presented these security steps to Japan as a “Chinese threat” and mobilized it.
With the effect of this secret escalation race between the US and China, Japan has started to allocate Taiwan in its security strategies. Going further, Japan is expected to characterize China as a “strategic competitor” in its National Security Strategy Document. This categorization was probably inspired by the White House’s National Security Strategy Document. In other words, there is a clear direction of the US in Japan’s China policy. Despite the US, the continuation of the Japan-China rapprochement can be seen as a remarkable success.
Japanese Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshimasa is reportedly planning to visit China in the coming days.[1] Minister Yoshimasa, who will visit Beijing for the first time in nearly three years, is expected to discuss critical issues, especially the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and the Taiwan Issue. Another indication that bilateral relations are beginning to soften is the face-to-face meeting of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Thailand in November 2022, during which a joint declaration on the restoration of bilateral relations was issued.
After this incident, which took place on November 18, 2022, Japanese officials continued their criticism that China was trying to change the status quo in the region. However, the positive atmosphere in the diplomatic sense continued. Even expectations for Jinping to visit Tokyo have increased. China’s Ambassador to Tokyo Kong Xuanyou said that if Jinping visited Japan as an official invitee, it would be very valuable for bilateral relations.[2]
Despite all the negativities and geopolitical tensions in the region, Beijing strives to improve relations with Tokyo and reduce the risk of war and crisis related to Taiwan. The Beijing government says it expects an official invitation from Japan so that Jinping can visit Tokyo. Therefore, we can say that if Japan invites it, Jinping can visit Tokyo. Therefore, there is a positive atmosphere between Beijing and Tokyo diplomatically.
It seems inevitable that this political harmony between the two countries will have geopolitical consequences. First, China aims to break the alliance that the US has established in the Indo-Pacific by drawing Japan to its side. If we accept the US-led Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) as an axis, Japan is the most critical actor and at the same time the weakest link in this axis. China plans to disrupt the harmony between the allied states by pulling the most critical link on this axis. Japan is a country with deep historical ties with China. Due to this acquaintance, Tokyo understands Beijing better and easier than its other American allies. To make a brief comparison, India is more prejudiced and reactive towards China than Japan.
The second geopolitical influence will be seen more clearly in the alliance that the US is trying to forge regarding Taiwan. Western countries such as Japan, Germany, and Australia may begin to think about how dangerous it can be to distort the facts about China. Beijing is telling Western states that this is a race to climb and that this fire is deliberately fueled by the US. As China increases its dialogue with these countries, Western countries’ support for the US decreases. Therefore, China will continue to strengthen its communication with Japan and other American allies to achieve its goals regarding Taiwan and eliminate geopolitical risks.
In conclusion, China-Japan relations will continue to influence regional dynamics and shape Western policies. Historical ties soften the nature of bilateral relations. The parties are making efforts to avoid a possible conflict, especially in Taiwan. It should not be forgotten that economic factors also lie behind this diplomatic effort. China is Japan’s largest trading partner.[3] In this context, China constitutes more than 20 percent of Japan’s foreign trade. This interdependent relationship between the two countries also reduces the geopolitical risks in the region.
[1] “Japanese FM Eyes Visit to China Amid Tense Ties Overshadowed By ‘Aggressive Defense Strategy’”, Global Times, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1281989.shtml, (Date of Accession: 16.12.2022).
[2] “Xi’s Visit to Japan ‘Invaluable’ for Bilateral Ties: Chinese Envoy”, Japan Times, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/12/02/national/china-japan-xi-visit-guest-relations/, (Date of Accession: 16.12.2022).
[3] “China-Japan Relations Moved Forward in General in Last 50 Yrs Despite Twists and Turns: Expert”, Global Times, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1275187.shtml, (Date of Accession: 16.09.2022).
