The “2030 Defense Readiness Roadmap,” approved by the European Council in October, is considered a significant milestone in European security and defense policy. At a time when Russia’s attacks on Ukraine continue and the credibility of US security policy is increasingly being questioned, there is a renewed awareness that Europe must possess an independent defense capacity capable of acting independently. This roadmap aims to significantly strengthen Europe’s military, industrial, and technological foundations by 2030 and to unify the national defense approaches that have been implemented in a fragmented manner until now, towards a common strategic vision. Furthermore, the document offers a coherent concept for Europe to adopt a holistic approach to security.
Developments in recent years have clearly demonstrated that Europe’s security architecture has entered a period of profound transformation. Russia, posing a direct military threat on Europe’s eastern borders, has become an integral part of European security, while hybrid warfare, disinformation campaigns, and cyberattacks have become integral to European security. Furthermore, the rapidly changing technological environment is forcing member states to adapt their defense strategies to new forms of warfare, particularly those based on cyber and unmanned systems. The war in Ukraine has clearly exposed the limits of European countries’ national capacities and their strategic dependence on external actors. In this context, the new roadmap directly links to the White Paper on Defense published in the spring, integrating the lessons learned from the Ukrainian conflict into the cornerstones of a long-term European security strategy. This document envisions not only the enhancement of military capacity but also the integration of the European defense industry, the promotion of joint R&D projects, and the strengthening of strategic autonomy. This approach aims to ensure the political will and coordination necessary for the European Union to become a more effective security actor at the global level.
The roadmap includes numerous measures that embody the European Union’s ambition to transition from a reactive to a proactive defense approach. Four flagship projects stand out in this context: the “Eastern Flank Watch” initiative, a European unmanned aerial vehicle defense system, a common air defense shield, and a space-based defense shield. These projects represent not only a quantitative but also a qualitative transformation in European defense strategy. These initiatives reflect the shift from traditional platform-based defense systems to AI-enabled networked defense architectures that connect sensors, missiles, satellite networks, and robotic units in real time. This transformation aims to increase both the efficiency of military operations and the speed of decision-making. Thus, the European Union aims to achieve a new level of integration that will not only enhance its military effectiveness but also secure its strategic autonomy. This process also demonstrates Europe’s strong commitment to consolidating its technological independence in the security sphere and enhancing its competitiveness in the global defense industry.
In this context, the financial dimension is crucial for the roadmap’s viability. In recent years, the European Commission has begun to gradually mobilize resources from the EU budget for defense policies. Following initial support programs totaling up to two billion euros annually, a new €150 billion credit framework has been established to finance joint projects among member states. The new roadmap also foresees that an additional several hundred billion euros will be allocated to defense investments in the upcoming multiannual financial framework. The main objective is to increase the share of joint procurement in total investment expenditure to 40 percent by 2027 and to ensure that at least 55 percent of orders are placed within the EU. These strategic objectives will enhance the competitiveness of the European defense industry, support its innovation capacity, and reduce dependence on external supply chains. Furthermore, this approach aims to strengthen coordination among member states and increase resource efficiency, paving the way for deeper integration in the European defense market. In the long term, these policies will contribute not only to the development of military capabilities but also to the strengthening of European identity in the security dimension.
In addition, a structural transformation is targeted for the European defense industry. The roadmap envisions the elimination of national protectionism and the creation of a true internal market for defense products. Thus, the European defense industry aims to transform into a competitive and innovative ecosystem that transcends national borders. The industry must be able to respond more quickly, test innovations quickly, and collaborate with non-traditional suppliers. Underlying this approach is the belief that technological independence is a prerequisite for strategic autonomy in terms of security policy. Therefore, the industrial dimension is no longer considered solely an economic domain but an integral part of strategic defense planning. This positioning of the defense industry expresses a long-term vision that will strengthen both Europe’s technological and political independence. Furthermore, by expanding the innovation ecosystem, the goal is to integrate start-ups, universities, and private research centers into the defense sector.
The roadmap also highlights the increasing institutional shift in the balance of power within the European Union. While member states traditionally continue to view defense policy as the last bastion of national sovereignty, the European Commission has steadily increased its influence in this area in recent years. Through its Defense Commissioner and the Directorate General for Defense Industries, the Commission now has the capacity to coordinate, monitor, and direct defense initiatives. Furthermore, by controlling the allocation of EU funds, it exerts indirect but powerful political influence over the strategic direction of national defense investments. To support this institutional balance of power, the roadmap envisions regular progress reports, clearly defined milestones, and binding accountability mechanisms. These measures not only increase transparency but also emphasize the need for a truly European-level oversight function.
However, this development is provoking complex and mixed reactions in member state capitals. While many governments recognize the necessity of stronger integration, they are cautious about the Commission’s growing influence. Therefore, the European Council has decided that the annual progress assessment will be conducted by the European Defence Agency, which operates under the supervision of member states. Furthermore, plans are underway to strengthen the Agency as a counterweight to the Commission. This institutional tension demonstrates that the question of “who will exercise political control?”—critical to the future of European defense—remains unclear. However, the real challenge lies not so much in the institutional structure but in practical implementation. Despite numerous statements and initiatives in recent years, defense cooperation among member states has remained fragmented and slow-moving. Bilateral and multilateral formats have failed to address coordination gaps, and even central projects such as the German-French collaboration on the development of next-generation fighter jets and tanks have ground to a halt. While member states agree on the urgency of defense investments, they have failed to develop a common understanding on how to effectively use resources. At this point, the Commission’s roadmap can be considered less an expression of a quest for institutional power and more an attempt to establish structures capable of action in an area long dominated by national interests. In other words, this strategy aims to establish a governance mechanism capable of producing tangible results by reducing the fragmentation in European defense decision-making processes.
The strategy’s success will depend on the extent to which member states are willing to support its objectives, not just in words but in action. If the planned projects are implemented and Europe’s industrial base is strengthened, the roadmap could transform Europe into a more independent, resilient, and globally effective security actor. However, if the project fails due to political resistance, bureaucratic delays, or insufficient coordination, this would deal a serious blow to the European Union’s institutional credibility in the security sphere. In any case, the implementation of the roadmap would have far-reaching consequences for Europe’s international positioning. Russia is monitoring developments with concern, believing that a unified European defense would significantly alter the strategic balance. Consequently, this initiative is not merely a defense project but also a test of the political maturity of European integration. The “2030 Defense Readiness Roadmap” will be a fundamental turning point that will determine whether the European Union can become more than an economic union in the next decade—in other words, whether it can transform into an autonomous geopolitical actor capable of ensuring its own security.
