According to George Modelski’s theory of dominant power, in world history, approximately every century, one state becomes the sole decisive actor in the international system with its political, economic, and military capacity. The emergence of a state that rivals the existing dominant power brings along long-term competition and conflicts. During this process, another actor takes advantage of this rivalry, rises to prominence, and ascends to the position of the new dominant power. Modelski emphasizes that this power is defined not only by land domination but also by the capacity to control sea trade routes and global trade networks.[i]
With the weakening of the Ottoman Empire, beginning from the 15th century, Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, France, and England respectively became the dominant powers. In the 20th century, after England’s rivalry with Germany, the United States (USA) emerged as the new dominant power of the international system following World War II.[ii]
Today, the international system is experiencing a deep and painful transformation process. Excessive fossil fuel consumption and environmental destruction caused by climate change are triggering crises such as drought and food insecurity. Fragilities in the fields of energy, water, food, and cyber security, along with instabilities caused by migration, are creating serious threats to the global order. The Russia-West and USA-China rivalries have turned regions such as Ukraine, Palestine, Kashmir, and Cyprus into frozen conflict zones. The policies of the USA in the Middle East and global trade wars have led the international system into a structural deadlock.
In this environment, the absence of an effective international mechanism capable of producing solutions to global problems has made the world economy fragile in terms of the security of supply chains. In this period, when discussions about a Third World War have resurfaced, many countries are undergoing strategic transformations toward becoming dominant powers. Türkiye, with its historical background, geopolitical position, defense industry capacity, and increasing regional influence, is at the center of this transformation.
In every period of history, during the rise from a dominant power to multipolarity within the chaos of international relations, major changes and transformations have occurred in the global distribution of power.
In the post–World War II period, the USA established an international system based on dollar hegemony by taking advantage of the weakness of Europe and the Soviet Union; through the United Nations (UN) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), it maintained its dominant power until the 2000s. However, since the beginning of the 21st century, these balances have changed with the increasing regional and global power capacities of China, Russia, and India. Countries such as Türkiye, Brazil, South Africa, Japan, and Saudi Arabia have also become more visible in global politics as medium-sized powers.
As a result of these developments, the USA’s position of absolute dominance has weakened, and the world has evolved into a multipolar structure. In response to the UN and NATO established under the leadership of the USA, Asia-centered organizations such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) have become institutional reflections of multipolarity.
The rapid developments in information technologies, population growth, and economic expansion have increased the global movement of goods, services, capital, and people. However, the competition between China and the USA, the war in Ukraine, the instability in the Middle East, and the energy crises have created serious risks for international logistics routes. Key passage points such as the Strait of Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab, and the Strait of Malacca have become central to this competition. These developments have led to increased vulnerabilities and the emergence of various security risks within the security dynamics of international trade corridors and logistics centers.
The fact that investment and trade cannot be sustainable in a region where security is not ensured has accelerated the search for alternative routes. In this context, the Zangezur Corridor and the Development Road Project stand out as the shortest, safest, and most economical routes among the East-West and North-South trade lines.
Türkiye, which is surrounded by seas on three sides, is within a four-hour flight distance to 67 countries with a total population of about 1.5 billion and an economic size of nearly 51 trillion dollars.[iii] The transformation of countries such as China, India, Japan, and Indonesia into production hubs in the Asia-Pacific strengthens the potential for intercontinental trade to be shaped through Türkiye -centered corridors.
With the state tradition inherited from the Seljuks and the Ottomans, Türkiye has never abandoned the goal of becoming a dominant power throughout history. Concrete reflections of this vision during the Republican period include;
- The stable implementation of the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits and its contribution to the security of the Black Sea,
- Multi-faceted soft power diplomacy, especially the grain corridor, during the Russia-Ukraine War,
- Supporting the Palestinian cause in response to the massacres against Palestinians by Israel and the USA,
- Public diplomacy activities conducted through the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA), the Presidency for Turks Abroad and Related Communities, and the Yunus Emre Institute,
- Relations developed with the Turkestan region under the umbrella of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS),
- Energy and transportation projects such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway and TANAP.
When Türkiye’s multidimensional and proactive strategies in the field of foreign policy are analyzed as a whole, it is seen that the country’s positioning against global crises is not “security-consuming” but rather a “security-producing” actor that contributes to maintaining stability in the international system. In this context, Türkiye’s geoeconomic position and strategic reflexes resemble the rise of an international actor progressing toward regional and global power.
The Zangezur Corridor, the Development Road, Iraq’s Faw and Pakistan’s Gwadar ports, and Türkiye’s Middle Corridor are not only trade routes but also modern reflections of the Historical Silk Road. The activation of these routes will contribute to increasing regional prosperity and strengthening Türkiye’s position as a geoeconomic center. Transportation, energy, and digital infrastructure investments to be established along the Middle Corridor will support Türkiye’s sustainable development and accelerate its rise to a regional and global power position.
With the increased functionality of the Middle Corridor, Türkiye will reach a position from which it can influence dependency relationships between the Asia-Pacific and the Atlantic. Additionally, economic ties to be developed with Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa will make Türkiye the new attraction center of Eurasia.
In the context of Modelski’s theory, which highlights the cycle of a dominant power emerging every century, Türkiye can be considered one of the most important candidates of the 21st century. The realization of this goal depends on Türkiye strengthening its national unity and solidarity, establishing an economic model based on high value-added production, and ensuring security in its cultural hinterland.
A Türkiye with terrorism-free, secure corridors and ports will not only be a guarantor of regional stability but also one of the reliable centers of global supply chains. Türkiye should view the structural transformation process created by the multipolar world order as a strategic window of opportunity to rise to dominant power and must not miss this historical opportunity that emerges approximately once a century. In summary, in the context of the Middle Corridor, the “Türkiye-centered” construction of logistics networks such as the Zangezur Corridor and the Development Road will elevate Türkiye to the league of great powers, achieving the position of a leading country (dominant power).
[i] Sander, O. “Two-Volume ‘Political History’ Series by Prof. Dr. Oral Sander”, Politika Akademisi, https://politikaakademisi.org/2016/12/05/prof-dr-oral-sanderden-iki-ciltlik-siyasi-tarih/, (Date of Access: 12.11.2025).
[ii] Ercan, M. (2013). The USA’s Struggle for Existence in the Process from Hegemonic Power to Isolation, I. Internatıonal Congress Of Polıtıcal, Economıc And Fınancıal Analysıs.
[iii] “Minister Uraloğlu: (Development Road Project) Will Consolidate Türkiye’s Geopolitical and Economic Weight”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/gundem/bakan-uraloglu-kalkinma-yolu-projesi-turkiye-nin-jeopolitik-ve-ekonomik-agirligini-percinleyecektir/3533703, (Date of Access: 12.11.2025).
