Following the military rupture that occurred in 2020, the geopolitical fault lines of the South Caucasus are being restructured by 2026, not through classical displays of military power, but through high-voltage energy lines traversing the seabed and fiber optic infrastructures that enable intercontinental digital integration. At the center of this radical change stands the Republic of Azerbaijan, which has moved beyond being a mere regional player to become a fundamental and indispensable component of the global energy security system. It is observed that the Baku administration has transformed the military success it gained in Karabakh into the position of a critical “indispensable actor” in Europe’s strategy to end energy dependence on Russia and diversify its resources. This process, by combining “Green Energy” projects that transport the renewable energy potential of the Caspian Basin to the center of Europe with the Middle Corridor integration, possesses the potential to remove the region from being a sphere of intervention for external powers and transform it into Eurasia’s most critical logistics and energy hub.
To analyze this new strategic structure in the South Caucasus, one must first examine the impact of the concept of the “Security Dilemma” on the traditional power balances in the region. The Caucasus, which Russia viewed in the past as its own sphere of influence within the scope of the “near abroad” doctrine, is today rapidly distancing itself from Moscow’s control thanks to the strategic energy partnership established between Azerbaijan and the European Union (EU). The weakening of Russia’s status as a regional security guarantor following the Ukraine Crisis has granted the Baku administration a broad room for maneuver. Through deep economic and energetic ties established with the EU, Azerbaijan has balanced Russia’s historical monopoly on energy supply and aligned its own state sovereignty with the strategic interests of the West.
This situation also constitutes a security shield in favor of Azerbaijan against Tehran’s policies that are introverted and occasionally strain the regional balance. Baku’s strengthening of its current alliances with Brussels on the ground of an institutional energy diplomacy creates a security dilemma for rival actors in the region. This is because every single economic and infrastructural gain of Azerbaijan increases the interest of extra-regional actors in the region and structurally restricts the intervention capabilities of rival powers.
The connectivity approach emerges as the most distinct geostrategic element of the present day. Azerbaijan’s foreign policy vision now targets the institutionalization of the Middle Corridor upon a digital, logistical, and green structure, rather than a model based merely on oil and gas exports. This multidimensional transport route, starting from China and extending to Europe via the Caspian transit, has become one of the safest avenues of global trade in this period where the reliability of the Northern Route passing through Russia has been shaken. The success of this corridor is directly correlated with the active participation of Central Asian states in the process. Countries such as Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan evaluate this transit gateway opening to Azerbaijan via the Caspian, and consequently to European markets, as a strategy to minimize their structural dependencies on Moscow.
In particular, the “Green Energy” cable project, which reaches Romania and Hungary via Georgia by passing through the bed of the Caspian Sea, bears the quality of a geopolitical revolution rather than a technical success. While this line unites the wind and solar energy potential of the Caspian with the EU’s “Green Deal” targets, it renders the South Caucasus an organic and strategic part of the European energy system. The Zangezur Corridor, as one of the most significant parts of this integration process, promises an uninterrupted and high-capacity terrestrial connection to Europe via Nakhchivan and Türkiye. This line, starting from Baku and extending to Kars, functions as a strategic step connecting the economic potential of Central Asian countries to global markets, beyond merely being a transportation route.
The aforementioned major projects have also triggered a radical shift in approach within the EU’s South Caucasus policies. The Brussels administration, which for years constructed its policies towards the region upon “human rights, democratization, and standards,” has shifted towards an axis of “strategic realism” by abandoning this idealist stance as of the mid-2020s. The energy crisis caused by the crisis in Ukraine and Russia’s use of energy as a weapon have compelled the EU to prioritize interests in the balance between value-oriented foreign policy and interests.
The EU defines Azerbaijan not only as a neighbor but as a critical strategic partner for Europe’s industrial sustainability and energy security. This pragmatic orientation has ensured that relations between the parties settle on a more predictable ground focused on mutual interest. Strategic realism has brought about Brussels’ acceptance of the Baku administration as a regional balancer and its viewing of stability in the South Caucasus as identical to Europe’s own security and prosperity. This diplomatic transformation is a concrete result of Azerbaijan’s ability to use energy resources not merely as a commercial commodity, but as a strategic instrument providing prestige and protection in the international system.
Nevertheless, the most vital question regarding projects of such magnitude and geopolitical shifts that must be answered is whether these economic networks can build a lasting peace in the South Caucasus. The principle of interdependence plays a central role in the normalization process of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The energy and logistics corridors constructed by Azerbaijan offer an integration model with the potential to include Armenia, rather than a structure excluding it. Armenia’s participation in these regional networks could enable Yerevan to escape its historical isolation and link its prosperity to cooperation to be established with Baku and Ankara. This situation would not only contribute to the technical resolution of border problems but would also allow tensions in the region to leave their place to rational economic cooperation processes. This process can be viewed as the beginning of an era where resources flowing from the Caspian to Europe are a guarantee for regional peace. The meeting of the “Crossroads of Peace” proposal presented by the Armenian administration and Azerbaijan’s corridor vision at a common point harbors a historic opportunity for reconciliation for the South Caucasus.
In conclusion, it is confirmed that this new structure, which Azerbaijan has woven with energy diplomacy and connectivity strategies, positions the country as an indispensable center in Eurasian geopolitics. This new state of affairs, shaped amidst the decline of Russia’s influence in the region, Iran’s strategic concerns, and the EU’s realistic foreign policy orientation, has transformed the South Caucasus into one of the most dynamic regions of the global system. Green energy projects and the Middle Corridor integration are strategic moves that permanently link the region’s future with the Western world, beyond being mere technical infrastructure investments. The success of these processes will depend on the will of regional countries to transform the existing economic potential into a culture of permanent peace and a sphere of common prosperity.
Azerbaijan, with its current position, not only strengthens its own sovereignty but also personally determines the rules of the new power distribution between East and West. This structure, built by the new architects of the Caspian, bears the quality of an intercontinental bridge of trust and stability, beyond pipelines. As long as the South Caucasus can generate its own peace within its own economic cooperation processes, it will cease to be a weak point of the global system and will become one of the most resilient and strategic strongholds of Eurasia.
