Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong and Indian Foreign Minister Vikram Misri held the China-India Vice Foreign Minister-Foreign Minister Dialogue in Beijing on January 27, 2024. According to a statement issued by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, during the meeting, the two countries focused on discussing measures to improve and develop China-India relations, and the two sides reached consensus on a number of issues. These agreements include India’s full support for China’s chairmanship of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and its active participation in meetings under the SCO.[1]
This meeting was an important step not only towards mutual stability and development of relations between the two countries, but also towards Asia’s role in influencing geopolitical balances on a global level. China and India aimed for a solution through dialogue for regional stability, a revival in economic relations with the launch of direct flights, and a broader approach with multilateral, alternative platforms at the global level, prioritizing their common interests in an era of the gradual decline of Western dominance and the development of a multipolar world order within organizations such as BRICS and SCO.
Hu Zhiyong, a professor at Zhejiang University of International Studies and an expert at the Institute of International Relations of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said that the agreements reached by both sides show that currently both sides have common interests in stabilizing bilateral relations and overcoming obstacles for further cooperation, as there will be uncertainties and challenges in 2025 that will require both sides to work together.[2]
During the 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, the two major players in Asia reached an important agreement to end the military conflict in the Ladakh region. This was the first official meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in five years. In addition to reaching a compromise on border tensions, an important step was also taken in ensuring regional stability. In fact, Sino-Indian relations gradually improved positively in 2024. After the border tensions in Ladakh, diplomatic contacts, investments in bilateral trade and dialogues on global platforms have increased. In particular, regular leaders’ meetings through the SCO and BRICS have played a critical role in building mutual political trust in this process. Because both countries aim to create a policy of balance by adopting a more independent stance towards the West.
In addition to China and India’s historic border disputes in the Ladakh region, geopolitical rivalries such as India’s participation in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), Tibet policy, China’s presence in the Indian Ocean, or economic rivalries between the parties, such as gaining trade advantage through exports, are also among the reasons for the disputes. Moreover, the fact that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) passes through the Kashmir region, which India claims, directly affects bilateral relations. Therefore, the parties have been cooperating from time to time, but have not reached a full strategic consensus yet.
2024 was an important year in Sino-Indian relations, with the long-awaited thaw between the two countries. The October agreement gave impetus to a process of engagement that is likely to continue. As the broader strategic and economic context is mostly favorable for this thaw, this process is likely to continue in 2025.[3]
Although China and India maintain their political dialogue mostly through the multilateral organizations of which they are members, they have recently strengthened their bilateral relations by making moves focused on their regional interests. There is even a possibility that India’s distant approach to the BRI could be replaced by constructive engagement in some sub-projects in the future. Nevertheless, such a development is not expected in the short term.
Relations between the two countries are crucial for the future of the Asia-Pacific region. Bilateral dialogues would increase the visibility of the region in the international arena and be effective in its role in global competition by ensuring political unity and cohesion, led by the parties, especially in terms of the developing trade and logistics routes of the Asia-Pacific in economic terms.
Sino-Indian relations should be viewed from a strategic and long-term perspective, based on the interests of the two countries and the two peoples, and differences should also be addressed to actively promote practical cooperation and promote mutual trust and the sound development of Sino-Indian relations. Given the recent developments, it seems that the parties have come to the conclusion that working in harmony rather than in a distant manner will bring them more gains both politically and economically. Thus, mutual confidence-building paths have been pursued both to create a global balance through joint economic activities and to prevent and manage bilateral disputes.
Furthermore, the steps that the two countries, which make up one third of the world’s population, take towards cooperation will also play a role in shaping political balances on a global scale. It will not only ensure the development of the Asia-Pacific, but will also control the arms race at the global level with the development of military cooperation. This will reduce military tensions in the region. Economic partnerships, on the other hand, offer an alternative path for developing countries such as Southeast Asian countries and support the formation of a more balanced global system. In fact, as long as the parties put aside military rivalries or disputes, they will establish more robust and sustainable relations by ensuring mutual political trust within the framework of strategic dialogues in the long term. From a broader perspective, given the support for common ideas such as a more peaceful order where other countries have a voice away from the pressure of the West, it is foreseen that if the two countries act together, significant changes will take place in the global system.
[1] “China, India agree to strengthen strategic communication, enhance mutual political trust, resume direct flights: FM” Global Times,https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202501/1327661.shtml, (Date Accession: 01.02.2025).
[2] Ibid.
[3] “What’s Next for China-India Relations?”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2025/01/whats-next-for-china-india-relations/, (Date Accession: 01.02.2025).
