Global and regional geopolitical ruptures are reshaping interstate alliance structures not only through traditional security paradigms but also by means of historical ties, identity-based policies, and multi-dimensional strategic visions. In particular, the Turkic states located in the strategic transitional zone between the South Caucasus and the Middle East have, in recent years, sought to establish a foundation for collective deterrence in the face of increasing crises and proxy wars. In this context, the Shusha Declaration, signed in 2021, has gone beyond being a mere alliance document based on the historical brotherhood between Azerbaijan and Türkiye, becoming a strategic paradigm that establishes the institutional foundation of the Turkic World’s political, military, and economic solidarity.
The military victory achieved by Azerbaijan in the 44-day Karabakh War in 2020 not only resulted in the liberation of occupied territories but also marked the beginning of a process that fundamentally altered the balance of power in the South Caucasus. The diplomatic and strategic cornerstone of this transformation was the “Shusha Declaration”, signed on 15 June 2021 in Shusha, one of Azerbaijan’s cultural capitals, by President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Türkiye.[1] This document elevated historical brotherhood to the level of institutional alliance, enabling the establishment of a deepening partnership between the two states not only in political but also in military, economic, cultural, and defense industry domains.
Through this declaration, the reconstruction of Karabakh, the opening of transportation corridors, and the implementation of energy cooperation have confirmed that the relationship between the two countries has evolved from a strategic partnership to a full-fledged military alliance. In the declaration, the Zangezur Corridor was defined as a “strategic center,” with the objective not only of establishing physical continuity between Nakhchivan and the rest of Azerbaijan but also of forming a transportation backbone of the Turkic World extending from west to east. In this regard, the Declaration functions not only as a document regulating Azerbaijan–Türkiye relations but also as a strategic roadmap representing the political, economic, and military vision for the future of the Turkic World.[2]
The international resonance of the Shusha Declaration has not been limited to the reestablishment of the post-Karabakh status quo; it also played a decisive role in the process of restoring full Azerbaijani sovereignty over Karabakh in 2023. During this process, Türkiye’s overt support and the parties’ ability to act jointly generated regional deterrence against the passive stance of external actors and reinforced Azerbaijan’s growing diplomatic confidence. In this sense, Shusha has become a symbol not only of victory but also of institutional strategic partnership, security-based solidarity, and multidimensional cooperation.
At the international conference titled “New World Order: Geopolitical Orientations and Global Challenges,” held in Shusha on 15 June 2025, participants emphasized that the Declaration represents more than a classical defense agreement; it is a structure through which the Turkic World has acquired institutional reflex capability against regional and global crises. In President Aliyev’s message, Shusha was highlighted not only as a historical center but also as a future-oriented strategic hub.[3]
Another development that brought the importance of the Shusha Declaration back to the agenda was the escalation of tensions along the Iran–Israel axis. Within the scope of airstrikes launched by Israel on June 14, 2025, the targeting of Tabriz was not merely an operation against military infrastructure in northern Iran, but also constituted a direct intervention in a socio-politically sensitive geography from the perspective of the Turkic World. Tabriz, the central city of Iran’s official northern region referred to as “Southern Azerbaijan” –with which Azerbaijan shares historical and cultural ties within the framework of the concept and belief in “Butov (Unified) Azerbaijan”– became one of the most strategically damaged locations in these attacks. Satellite images documented significant damage to mobile launchers and silos constructed for Shahab missiles hidden in mountainous terrain.[4]
On the same day, Iran claimed to have shot down an Israeli F-35 fighter jet over the skies of Tabriz; thus, in a war environment that reached the level of direct aerial confrontation, Tabriz once again turned into a front-line position.[5] Local reports revealed that the explosions around Tabriz International Airport and the Shahid Fakuri Military Base inflicted damage not only on air defense systems but also on logistics and transportation routes.[6] These strikes produced an impact that went beyond efforts to paralyze Iran’s northern flank and severely undermined the security of the region’s dense Turkic population. It is considered that this situation will further heighten Azerbaijan’s sensitivity not only concerning border security but also regarding the safety of its kin beyond its borders.
The fact that Tabriz serves as a critical military base for the Iranian Army demonstrates that these attacks carry not only tactical but also strategic and socio-demographic implications. Home to the 31st Ashura Mechanized Division and TAB 2 Air Base, this city plays a central role in the deployment of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and missile systems by the Iranian Air Force. Therefore, Israel’s targeting of Tabriz signifies not only an attack on Iran’s military capacity but also a strategic “pulse check” directed at a geography strongly associated with Turkic identity. When evaluated from a realistic analytical perspective, such attacks convey implicit messages intended not only to strike the direct target but also to measure the reactions of actors with historical and identity-based ties to the surrounding region.
The strategic defense reflex embodied in the Shusha Declaration has become more visible and functional, particularly during periods of intensifying regional crises. The joint military exercises, defense industry cooperation, and mechanisms of diplomatic coordination developed on the basis of the Türkiye–Azerbaijan alliance are constructing an increasingly expansive deterrence structure not only in the context of Karabakh but across the South Caucasus, the Middle East, and Central Asia. The battlefield superiority achieved by Türkiye through UAVs such as the Bayraktar TB2, Akıncı, and Anka was clearly demonstrated during the Karabakh War, and this technological capability, through joint production and training projects with Azerbaijan, has evolved into a regional force of influence.
In the deepening Iran–Israel tension of 2025, marked by the targeting of Tabriz, the significance of this deterrence has once again become evident, and Turkish defense capacity has begun to manifest not only symbolically but as an operational presence. From this perspective, Iran’s strong objections to the Zangezur Corridor and its portrayal of the route as a “geopolitical encirclement plan” clearly reflect unease regarding the regional integration potential embedded in the Shusha Declaration. The Tehran administration’s acceleration of cooperation with Armenia in energy and infrastructure sectors, its intensification of diplomatic pressure, and its direct targeting of the Türkiye–Azerbaijan axis can be interpreted as a reactionary blockade strategy aimed at obstructing the strengthening of this strategic structure.[7]
Following the 2025 summit of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) held in Budapest, the importance of the aforementioned declaration was once again emphasized, and it was seen as a critical step toward consolidating the military-strategic unity of Turkic states. However, the spread of reports on social media after the summit claiming that Uzbekistan had joined the Shusha Declaration revealed the risks of information disinformation. These claims, which appeared in the media, were officially denied by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, which clearly stated that the country is not a party to the declaration.[8] While Uzbekistan’s cautious approach within the framework of rational policies and a multipolar understanding of foreign policy is understandable, from the perspective of the strategic unity of Central Asia and the Turkic World, the participation of Turkic states such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in the Türkiye–Azerbaijan strategic cooperation chain, including the Shusha Declaration, holds considerable importance.
Reports in the Israeli press also indicate the emergence of a discourse structure directly targeting Türkiye’s growing influence in the region. A remark by former Israeli national football player and media figure Eyal Berkovic –“We defeated Hamas and Iran, the final is with Türkiye”[9]– illustrates that Türkiye is perceived in Israeli public opinion not only as a diplomatic but also as a strategic threat.
The Shusha Declaration has established an institutional alliance architecture between Türkiye and Azerbaijan, laying the foundation not only for a new security and cooperation paradigm in the South Caucasus but also in Central Asia and the Middle East. Especially in 2025, with the targeting of Tabriz, the transformation of geographies bearing Turkic identity into war zones has demonstrated that the Declaration should assume a deterrent and stabilizing role not only in the Karabakh context but across a broader region in potential future crises. In this respect, expanding the Shusha Declaration to institutionalize the military-political infrastructure of the OTS could not only contribute to ensuring peace and security in the current crisis environment but also enable the construction of a multilateral defense capacity against emerging proxy wars in the region. Furthermore, such a structure may evolve into a crisis response mechanism that is not only diplomatic but, when necessary, possesses joint operational capability. Thus, the Declaration would attain the status not merely of a bilateral security agreement but of a framework representing the Turkic World’s collective defense reflex.
The participation of powerful and strategic Central Asian states such as Uzbekistan in formations similar to the Shusha Declaration would not only signify numerical expansion but also represent the creation of an integrated geopolitical front for the Turkic World along the east–west axis. From a realistic perspective, should Uzbekistan officially join, it is expected that countries like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan would also become more actively engaged in Turkic defense strategies. This development would directly affect the balance within the Russia–China axis and create a new perception of a security corridor along Iran’s northern borders. Such a multilateral alliance would allow for the development of joint strategies in areas such as energy security, transportation networks, and digital infrastructure, institutionalizing not only military but also politico-economic solidarity. However, the success of this scenario depends not solely on developing reflexes against external threats but also on building institutional mechanisms of long-term trust, coordination, and decision-making among Turkic states. Otherwise, the growing alliance potential may remain limited to short-term gestures and may prove ineffective in the face of regional crises.
In conclusion, the Shusha Declaration has evolved beyond a bilateral alliance text signed between Azerbaijan and Türkiye and has become the foundational document of the Turkic World’s strategic integration vision based on history, identity, and common interests. This framework, which reshaped the regional security architecture following the Karabakh Victory, will demonstrate, especially amid the 2025 crisis centered on Tabriz and other Turkic regions, how critically important it is not only in the Karabakh context but also in terms of deterrence and solidarity across a wider geography. In this context, the evolution of the Declaration into a multilateral security architecture with the participation of Uzbekistan and other Turkic states is regarded as a realistic and constructive possibility that could contribute not only to the stability of the Turkic geography but also to that of the broader regional system.
[1] “Shusha Declaration on Allied Relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Turkey”, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, https://president.az/en/articles/view/52122, (Access Date: 19.06.2025).
[2] “Segodnya Chetvertaya Godovshchina Podpisaniya Shushinskoy Deklaratsii”, Baku.ws, https://baku.ws/ru/politika/segodnya-chetvertaya-godovshina-podpisaniya-shushinskoj-deklaracii, (Access Date: 19.06.2025).
[3] “International Conference Addresses New Global Order in Shusha”, Azertag, https://azertag.az/en/xeber/international_conference_addresses_new_global_order_in_shusha-3612459, (Access Date: 19.06.2025).
[4] Oman Al Yayhai, “In Pictures: Aftermath of Israeli Strikes on Iran’s Military and Nuclear Sites”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/2025/06/16/in-pictures-aftermath-of-israeli-strikes-on-irans-military-and-nuclear-sites, (Access Date: 19.06.2025).
[5] “Iran Shoots Down Israeli F-35 Fighter jet Over Tabriz, Reports Iranian Agency”, Middle East Monitor – MEMO, https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250617-iran-shoots-down-israeli-f-35-fighter-jet-over-tabriz-reports-iranian-agency/, (Access Date: 19.06.2025).
[6] “Israel Wipes out Strategic Iranian Airport in Fresh Round of Strikes”, YNetNews, https://www.ynetnews.com/article/o5xv0ej7w, (Access Date: 19.06.2025).
[7] Tahir Qureshi, “Iran Uncovers Turkey’s Double Game to Harm it Geopolitically and Strategically, now Tehran…, Erdogan…”, India, https://www.india.com/news/world/iran-uncovers-turkeys-double-game-to-harm-it-geopolitically-strategically-now-tehran-erdogan-ankara-israel-ayatollah-khamenei-azerbaijan-zangezur-corridor-armenia-russia-7888894/, (Access Date: 19.06.2025).
[8] “Informatsiya o Prisoyedinenii Uzbekistana k Shushinskoy Deklaratsii Oprovergnuta”, Kun.Uz, https://www.kun.uz/ru/news/2025/05/24/informatsiya-o-prisoyedinenii-uzbekistana-k-shushinskoy-deklaratsii-oprovergnuta, (Access Date: 19.06.2025).
[9] “Israeli journalist Eyal Berkovic is a former international footballer who played for Maccabi Haifa…”, Drop Site – X, https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/1935095736754159696, (Access Date: 19.06.2025).
