The Movement Toward Socialism (MAS), which has marked the last two decades of Bolivia’s history, is now confronted with a serious process of political fragmentation. The gradual withdrawal of support from the country’s largest demographic majority, the indigenous peoples, particularly the Aymara and Quechua communities indicates that identity-based mobilization in Bolivian politics has been replaced by economic pragmatism. This transformation represents not merely a change in electoral preferences but also a structural rupture for indigenous movements across Latin America.
The election of Evo Morales as president in 2006 constituted a historic turning point not only for Bolivia but also for the entire continent, as it reflected the projection of indigenous identity into state governance. Morales’s Aymara origins, his symbolic receipt of presidential authority through a traditional ceremony in Tiwanaku, and his discourse on the “era of indigenous peoples” positioned MAS for many years as the natural representative of these groups. [i]During Morales’s tenure, indigenous peoples gained greater visibility, constitutional recognition, and access to certain rights.
However, the protests that began in 2011 over the highway project planned to pass through indigenous territories in the Amazon region signaled the first ruptures between Morales and MAS. Indigenous communities, believing that their environmental and cultural rights were being violated, began to take a stance against the MAS government. This process deepened further with Morales’s attempt in 2019 to seek a fourth term by stretching constitutional limits, followed by the eruption of a political crisis.
Today, it is possible to argue that the electoral backlash faced by MAS is no longer rooted in identity but in economic expectations. The country is struggling with its most severe economic crisis since the 1980s. The decline in natural gas exports, the scarcity of foreign currency, the rapid depreciation of the boliviano on the black market despite the official exchange rate, and inflation at its highest level in 40 years are directly affecting indigenous voters who have moved upward into the urban middle class.
One of the most notable examples of this transformation is Sayuri Loza, an Aymara intellectual who actively voices opinions on indigenous rights and demands for social services. As the daughter of Remedios Loza, one of the symbolic figures of Bolivian politics, Loza emphasizes that identity-based politics has ceased to be a decisive factor, highlighting instead the inability to meet basic social needs such as healthcare, education, and employment security as the determining elements in voting behavior. Similarly, Lirio Fuertes, a young teacher and entrepreneur striving to make the Quechua language and culture more visible in the public sphere, asserts that MAS has instrumentalized indigenous identity in its political rhetoric but failed to translate this discourse into public services. According to Fuertes, Morales and the political structure identified with him have, over time, associated indigenous identity with negative connotations such as “corruption” and “authoritarianism,” which has led to a serious loss of legitimacy in the eyes of the people.[ii]
It can be argued that Bolivian politics is undergoing not merely a change of party but also a profound departure from an entrenched paradigm. The replacement of the “identity vote” with the “pocketbook vote” is challenging both MAS and other parties that have attempted to emulate it.
As Bolivian sociologists such as Renzo Abruzzese have noted, the country has witnessed the emergence of an increasingly broad indigenous middle class. This group demands not traditional symbols but rather economic stability, social services, and institutional reliability. Indigenous identity is now being redefined not only on cultural grounds but also at a class level. In particular, a large segment of voters under the age of 35 who have experienced no administration other than those of Morales and Arce are voicing their demand for change more strongly.
However, these voters have not fully turned to the right-wing opposition either. It no longer appears possible for candidates to secure mass indigenous support solely through an emphasis on identity. What will be decisive for candidates, rather, is their ability to develop credible policies concerning economic stability and public services.
This situation represents not only a significant rupture in Bolivia but also an important shift across Latin America as a whole. While indigenous identity may not have entirely lost its mobilizing power in politics, it has become increasingly intertwined with more rational and results-oriented demands. Identity is no longer solely a source of legitimacy in itself but has transformed into a component evaluated alongside social rights and economic well-being.
Indigenous identity is now shaped not only in village assemblies or ceremonies but also on social media. This digitalization has made younger voters both more demanding and more critical, replacing the earlier voter profile content with symbolic representation with a more conscious electorate grounded in rights-based questioning. In such an environment, it is becoming increasingly difficult for parties that use identity merely as a symbol to build sustainable legitimacy.
The Bolivian case highlights both the limits of identity politics and the evolution of indigenous demands. Symbols, flags, cultural representations, and heroes of the past are no longer sufficient. Concrete demands such as education, healthcare, and income security play a far more decisive role in shaping the voting behavior of indigenous communities. If MAS fails to adapt to this transformation, it risks losing not only political power but also its claim to representation.
[i] Machicao, Monica ve Lucinda Elliott, “Bolivia’s Socialists Lose Support of the Aymara, Once Their Base”, Reuters, www.reuters.com/world/americas/bolivias-socialists-lose-support-aymara-once-their-base-2025-08-07/, (Access Date: 10.08.2025).
[ii] İbid.