Following the Polish parliamentary elections held on October 15, 2023, the Law and Justice Party (PiS) won the most seats but failed to win a parliamentary majority. [i] Despite the lack of a parliamentary majority, Polish President Andrzej Duda authorized PiS to form a government and swore it in.[ii] Opposition parties stated they would not cooperate with PiS and accused President Duda of delaying the formation of the coalition government led by Donald Tusk. Following a vote of confidence in the parliament, PiS handed over power to the coalition led by Donald Tusk on December 13, 2023. [iii] This change marked the transition of Poland’s right-wing populist government to a liberal one after eight years and was welcomed in Europe, where concerns about the rise of the far right were prevalent.
The new Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, has set as priorities the restoration of the rule of law in Poland and the release of tens of billions of euros from the COVID-19 rescue fund and cohesion funds earmarked for Poland in the current EU budget but blocked by the Commission due to concerns. In this regard, Tusk has taken actions to dismiss people linked to the previous PiS Government, regain control of the public media, [iv] and reverse changes in the judiciary that led to a clash with Brussels. As a result, a political struggle began between him and President Andrzej Duda.
While Tusk’s moves to dismantle the legacy of the previous PiS Government, accused of authoritarianism, mark a shift in power dynamics, the safe margin majority in parliament does not give Tusk all the powers that PiS once had. President Duda retains the power to veto legislation, which has the potential to challenge the Tusk Government by blocking important initiatives.
In addition, the fate of two imprisoned former PiS politicians, Mariusz Kaminski, and Maciej Wasik, [v] considered political prisoners by PiS, adds complexity to Duda and Tusk’s strained relationship. Duda’s attempts to pardon them have led to legal problems, while the hunger strike in prison[vi] initiated by former Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski deepens the current political drama in Poland. Moreover, Donald Tusk’s efforts to roll back the policies of the previous PiS administration and the massive protest in Warsaw[vii] in response to the arrest of two PiS politicians indicate a divided Polish people.
The pro-European Prime Minister aims to restore democracy and judicial independence. In addition, the new Polish Government has made clear its support for Ukraine. [viii] Recent tensions between Poland and Ukraine have been caused by disputes over Ukrainian grain imports, particularly affecting the Polish market. Despite the European Commission’s call for an end to the grain import embargo against Ukraine, Poland’s opposition to this decision and Ukraine’s complaint to the World Trade Organization increased tensions between the two countries. Anti-Ukrainian protests in Poland then spread to the transport sector, with truck drivers blocking border crossings and demanding the return of limited licenses for Ukrainian trucks. Donald Tusk’s government may offer an opportunity for a fresh start to repair Polish-Ukrainian relations, which have been damaged by these developments. With this in mind, Tusk could build a solid Polish-Ukrainian bilateral relationship that would benefit both countries and ensure a swift resolution of disputes.
The new government focuses on ending Poland’s isolation in the European Union and rebuilding its international relations. Poland could work towards revitalizing the Weimar triangle (Paris, Berlin, Warsaw), as its cooperation within the Visegrad Group could face obstacles from populist leaders such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico. Tusk’s new government is emerging as a strong collaborator with a pro-EU stance to promote a more cohesive and integrated European Union. However, the new coalition government united against PiS faces many challenges, such as restoring democratic institutions and investigating alleged abuses of power by the former government.
Considering these developments, it is critically important how the political disagreements between Duda and the new Polish government will be resolved and, at the same time, how democracy will be restored in the country. Moreover, Poland’s position within the EU remains to be determined as it aims to become both a regional and global power. Tusk’s formation of a liberal and pro-EU government in Poland has changed the power dynamics in the region, isolating populist leaders like Fico and Orbán in neighboring countries.
Another important question about Tusk’s leadership is how he will balance Poland’s national interests with support for Ukraine. Tusk has declared that while he will openly support Ukraine in line with the EU’s policies, he will also protect the interests of the Polish people. [ix] Undoubtedly, Tusk’s return to power is a victory for Brussels. However, the new Polish government remains mysterious in its ability to overcome internal political crises and implement ambitious projects for Poland’s future; therefore, how Tusk manages this process until the 2025 presidential elections will be the most decisive factor in the success of his government and Poland’s position in Europe.
[i] ‘Polish nationalists PiS on brink of losing power’, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-holds-high-stakes-election-amid-rows-over-democratic-rule-2023-10-15/ (Accessed: 15.11.2023)
[ii] ‘Morawiecki’s new Polish government sworn in before confidence vote’, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-president-swear-govt-opposition-condemns-farce-2023-11-27/ (Accessed: 27.11.2023).
[iii] ‘Poland’s new PM Donald Tusk sworn in, completing transition of power’, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/2023/12/13/polands-new-pm-donald-tusk-sworn-in-completing-transition-of-power/ (Accessed: 13.12.2023)
[iv] ‘Poland’s revolution gets real as government reclaims control of public media’, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-government-media-news-agency-law-and-justice-tusk/(Accessed: 20.12.2023)
[v] ‘Poland’s populist president to pardon jailed ministers from former government’, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/11/andrzej-duda-poland-president-to-pardon-jailed-ministers/(Accessed: 11.01.2024)
[vi] ‘Former Polish minister’s deputy joins hunger strike in prison’, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/former-polish-minister-starts-hunger-strike-prison-2024-01-10/(Accessed:10.01.2024)
[vii] ‘Tens of thousands protest in Poland against ex-ministers’ imprisonment’, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-president-moves-pardon-jailed-ex-ministers-deepening-turmoil-2024-01-11/(Accessed:11.01.2024).
[viii] ‘Poland’s new PM promises to push for full Western support of Ukraine’, Aljazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/12/polands-donald-tusk-says-hell-push-for-western-support-for-ukraine/ (Accessed:12.12.2023)
[ix] ‘Donald Tusk sets out vision of a progressive Poland at heart of EU’, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/12/donald-tusk-vision-progressive-poland-heart-of-eu/(Accessed:12.12.2023)
