El Salvador, under the leadership of Nayib Bukele, has undergone a remarkable transformation in the last two years. The country, once notorious in Latin America, has become safer and more stable.The background to this transformation and the re-election of President Bukele indicate that this process will continue.
During this period, the fight against criminal gangs has accelerated and the country’s security was emphasized. Measures such as the declaration of a state of emergency and the active role of military forces in internal security had a significant impact on effectively fight against crime.[i] Bukele’s rise in popularity shows that these policies are supported by the public. This transformation highlights the need for important steps to be taken for the stability and security of the country.
As El Salvador’s Minister of Justice and Public Security, Gustavo Villatoro, pointed out, the hope that these policies could provide a solution for Latin America in general is almost a lifeline for the people of states where stability has not yet been achieved. This situation shows that Bukele’s leadership does not only concern his country, but has a regional impact and that other countries can resort to similar strategies..[ii]
Since Bukele took office in 2019, significant steps have been taken in the fight against crime in the country. Crime rates have markedly decreased in areas controlled by gangs, and operations have been carried out against previously unpunished criminal networks. However, there are also many human rights institutions that state that these harsh policies are uncontrolled and disproportionate, and therefore should be considered a human rights violation.[iii]
According to a Human Rights Watch report, the El Salvador government has arrested approximately 60,000 people, particularly during the state of emergency. It is stated that the arrests were often based on individuals’ appearances or social backgrounds, and local human rights groups have documented hundreds of cases involving people with no connections to gangs. It is also documented that there are proven violations by security forces, and that arbitrary arrests, torture and disappearances have occurred.[iv]
On the other hand, it should not be ignored that Bukele’s policies have provided tangible benefits to the country. The decline in crime rates, the recovery in the perception of security, and the increase in tourism and investment in the country demonstrate the effectiveness of Bukele’s policies. These developments have made El Salvador and its region more attractive internationally and have led to positive economic outcomes. In short, the transformation that El Salvador has experienced under Bukele’s leadership can be considered a remarkable success on a regional scale.
Business leaders in El Salvador appreciate Bukele’s successes in public security but emphasize the necessity of policies that will support long-term economic growth. In particular, the focus should be on economic growth strategies that can reverse the country’s long history of mass migration. While the country’s transformation to such a level in just two years is inspiring, sustaining this improvement is a crucial condition for its continuity. Bukele’s leadership has also had significant impacts in economic areas. In particular, his decision to accept Bitcoin as legal tender and cryptocurrency investments have attracted international attention. However, these economic moves also carry considerable risks.For instance, Bitcoin’s volatility and depreciation could negatively impact the country’s economic stability.[v]
The rise in Nayib Bukele’s popularity is clearly evident, with his approval rating reaching as high as 90%. However, this rising popularity is also associated with worrying trends such as increasing authoritarianism and the curtailment of civil liberties. The global rise of radicalism is fueling sympathy and popularity for authoritarian leaders, and Bukele’s policies and the public’s response are connected to this.
Bukele’s Nuevas Ideas party’s use of its legislative majority to fire judges and take over the Supreme Court has drawn criticism. These political developments have raised concerns about the weakening of democratic institutions and the restriction of civil liberties.
Nayib Bukele’s overwhelming victory in the February 2024 elections in El Salvador could have significant implications for the country’s political and economic future. This victory, achieved under Bukele’s leadership, could support the continuation of the ongoing transformation process and the sustainment of his policies. However, Bukele’s strong hold on power in the new term could weaken political opposition and democratic institutions in the country. This situation could lead to a reduction in political diversity and critical voices, raising concerns about democratic governance.
From an economic perspective, the continuation of a stable government under Bukele’s leadership could boost investor confidence and promote economic growth. However, continued human rights abuses and democratic restrictions could undermine the international community’s support for the country and discourage foreign investment.
As a result, Bukele’s victory could have complex effects on El Salvador’s political and economic future. Preserving democratic values and respecting human rights will be of great importance in the country’s new era. While Bukele’s tough policies have achieved significant successes in the fight against crime, they have also led to the weakening of democratic institutions and human rights violations.Sustainable and balanced policies must be adopted for the country’s economic development.However, in this process, safeguarding democratic values and ensuring respect for human rights will also be crucial. The future of El Salvador will depend on its ability to strike this balance.
[i] “Mano dura de El Salvador contra el crimen seduce a América Latina”,Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-02/elecciones-en-el-salvador-bukele-va-tras-segundo-mandato-con-foco-en-crimen?sref=SCKvL4TY, (Access Date: 15.02.2024).
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] Ibid..
[iv] “El Salvador”, Human Rights Watch, https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2023/country-chapters/el-salvador, (Access Date: 15.02.2024).
[v] “El Salvador’da yeniden Devlet Başkanı seçildiğini açıklayan Nayib Bukele’nin hangi uygulamaları tartışma yaratmıştı?”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/turkce/articles/cw4q7gqgdd0o, Access Date: 15.02.2024).
