In today’s world, the security paradigm has transcended classical threat definitions and evolved into complex, multidimensional crises that surpass nation-state boundaries. While the nature of wars and conflicts is changing, the elements threatening security are no longer limited to armed forces, terrorist organizations, or nuclear programs. One of the most striking examples of this transformation is the use of water resources as a strategic tool. Water has moved beyond being merely a source of life to become a factor in conflict, control, and even terrorism. In this context, a new form of violence, which may be defined as “hydro-terrorism,” is gaining increasing strategic and operational significance, particularly in fragile regions.
Climate change is the most fundamental factor directly threatening access to water. Rising temperatures, increasingly irregular precipitation patterns, higher evaporation rates, and desertification processes are causing both surface and groundwater levels to decline. This leads to serious risks ranging from food production to drinking water availability. Drought disrupts not only agricultural output but also social stability. The degradation of farmland triggers migration from rural areas to cities; water scarcity escalates conflicts among ethnic and occupational groups, and in regions with weak infrastructure, deteriorating hygiene conditions lead to increased risk of disease outbreaks.
Security risks developing on this ecological basis are now being tactically employed by armed actors. The weaponization of water turns it into a component of both physical and psychological warfare. Tactics such as the destruction of dams, sabotage of drinking water infrastructure, and control of water lines to block civilian access are rewriting the rules of warfare. In this context, water is not the target but the tool, a strategic instrument of pressure used to intimidate, subdue, or gain territorial control. This approach is particularly effective in areas where state authority is weak, infrastructure is fragile, and local communities are struggling to survive.
This form of threat is most concretely observed in the Sahel region of Sub-Saharan Africa. In countries like Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad, climate-induced drought has weakened the state’s capacity to deliver public services. Meanwhile, at the local level, armed groups gain legitimacy by taking control of water access and exert hegemonic influence over communities. Entities that control water wells collect not only resources but also loyalty. These groups have become more efficient in service provision than the state, thereby undermining state authority and creating fragmented zones of governance. In such an environment, the use of water as a weapon results not only in physical destruction but also in social disintegration and political erosion.
This threat is not unique to Africa. Similar cases are emerging in the Middle East, South Asia, Latin America, and Central Asia. Tensions arising from dam projects in the Mesopotamian basin, longstanding water disputes between upstream and downstream countries along the Nile, and hydro-political tensions between China, India, and Pakistan in the foothills of the Himalayas clearly illustrate that water has become an element of international rivalry. All these developments validate the prediction that water will be the “oil of the 21st century.” Yet unlike oil, water’s defining characteristic is its indispensability to life. Water is not only strategic, it is existential.
The inadequacy of international law also stands out as a critical issue. Existing water treaties primarily focus on water sharing among states. As such, there is no binding legal framework that explicitly prohibits or penalizes the use of water as a weapon of war. The 1997 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses is based on principles such as good faith, equitable use, and data sharing. However, it lacks strong enforcement mechanisms for violations. Moreover, many countries are not parties to the convention, which hampers its universal applicability. In light of the current realities, the weaponization of water must be included within the scope of international humanitarian law, classified as a war crime, and integrated into the international criminal justice system for accountability and deterrence.
The solution must not be limited to legal frameworks. Ensuring water security requires a multi-layered, multi-actor, and inclusive approach. From this perspective, water security is not merely an environmental issue; it is also a matter of development, health, education, gender equality, and social justice. The equitable and sustainable use of water is possible not only through technical expertise but also through cultural sensitivity, community participation, and local knowledge. The inclusion of local communities, women, and youth in decision-making processes is a fundamental condition for the peaceful governance of water.
Early warning systems and technological infrastructure must also be strengthened. Satellite imaging, AI-based monitoring networks, water quality analyses, and real-time data sharing are vital tools for detecting crises in advance and activating response plans. These systems should be shared transparently not only among state institutions but also with local governments, civil society organizations, and international bodies. Every water-related crisis is both a humanitarian and a strategic issue. Therefore, the solutions must be designed with both ethical principles and strategic foresight.
The increase in water-based conflicts should also pave the way for the rise of water diplomacy. Water diplomacy is a process that merges technical expertise with political dialogue, aiming not merely to resolve but to prevent crises. In this process, the use of water as a platform for cooperation, conflict de-escalation, and identification of common interests should be prioritized. Furthermore, regional organizations (such as the African Union, ASEAN, or the Arab League) should establish diplomatic mechanisms capable of responding swiftly to water crises within their regions. In this framework, joint water commissions, cross-border water data repositories, and technical cooperation networks are of paramount importance.
At this point, three future scenarios can be envisioned. The first, an optimistic one, involves the prevention of new water-based conflicts and the recognition of water as a shared heritage. In this scenario, water diplomacy is strengthened through technological solutions, institutional collaborations, and cultural transformation, and deterrence against hydro-terrorism is established. The second scenario, should current trends continue, is the spread of water-related conflicts, especially in fragile states, leading to intensified migration and the breakdown of social fabrics. This would deepen global instability and give rise to new security domains. The third and riskiest scenario is the full-scale weaponization of water, the emergence of direct interstate water wars, and the failure of international law to respond adequately to such threats. In such a case, not only conflict zones but also global food systems, energy chains, and supply networks would face collapse.
In conclusion, water crises compounded by climate change are giving rise to a new global security paradigm. This paradigm invalidates classical doctrines of war and threatens the balance between resources, the environment, and human dignity. Water is no longer just a natural resource; it has become a geopolitical asset, a strategic value, and a societal stress test. Therefore, water security must be placed at the core of next-generation security strategies. Ensuring that water serves peace, not violence, that it is a tool of solidarity, not domination, is not only a technical challenge but a moral and political responsibility. The choices we make today will shape not only the present but also the wars or peace of the future. And the key to that future will flow not from the taps, but from our conscience and our vision.
