At the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Russia, China and India held on November 26, 2021, messages were given to strengthen cooperation and solidarity between the three countries based on multipolarity. With Russia’s war in Ukraine, which began on 24 February 2022, Beijing and New Delhi were expected to take a stand against Moscow. But when the war began, China and India continued their strategic silence against Russia.[1] This was seen as an unexpected outcome of the Russia-Ukraine War. Indeed, both India and China have begun to take their relations with Russia a step further “based on multipolarity”. In May and June of 2022, during the BRICS summits, China tried to bring Russia and India together, especially through the Global Security Initiative. Also, during this period, Russia invited both China and India to the Zapad-22 exercises, aiming to reinforce the axis of multipolarity.
Recent major turning points have been Russia’s threats to use nuclear force against the West, the emergence of allegations of “dirty bomb” attacks, Moscow’s refusal to agree to a ceasefire and the prolongation of the war in Ukraine. As a result of these developments, Russian President Vladimir Putin did not receive the attention and support he expected from neither Chinese President Xi Jinping nor Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) Samarkand Summit held on September 15-16, 2022. On the contrary, Jinping and Modi called on Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
This change in India’s and China’s views of Russia has become clearer with each passing day. In November 2022, Jinping began to openly target Russia in his meetings with Western leaders, saying that he opposed the use of nuclear weapons in Eurasia.[2] In the process, China has sought to distinguish itself from Russia’s war-related policies.
In this sense, while Moscow was seen as a “pro-war and world-threatening actor” by the West, Beijing wanted to position itself as a “peaceful actor against block politics and war”. Thus, while Russia remained the “other of the West”, China continued to integrate with the world based on “multipolarity”. Similarly, India has made it clear at the United Nations (UN) that it does not support the war in Ukraine, despite its continued energy cooperation with Russia.[3] In September and November 2022, both Indian Prime Minister Modi and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar conveyed the message that “this is not the age of war” in their meetings with Russian officials.[4]
In short, there was an impression that China and India were moving away from Russia. Whether this thought is true or not is another subject that is debated. However, there are serious indications that this is accurate. The clearest example of this is the weakening of cooperation between India and China. At the beginning of December 2022, Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar declared that relations with China were not normal.[5] At a time of ongoing tensions on the border, the Minister said that they would never accept China’s unilateral actions and changes to the status quo on the border.
Recently, conflicts broke out again on the India-China border. In other words, New Delhi and Beijing fell out because Russia insisted on the war in Ukraine. Thus, the cooperation process between Russia-India-China has entered a period of disintegration. Moscow was previously positioned as a balancing actor between New Delhi and Beijing. However, both India and China started to take a stand against Moscow, thus disrupting the process of trilateral cooperation on the common denominator of multipolarity.
It seems that Russia was acting as a “glue” in India-China relations. When Moscow withdrew from this axis, the New Delhi-Beijing union also disintegrated. India is distancing itself from Russia. For example, the New Delhi government has announced that there will be no leaders’ level talks between Russia and India this year, even though they are held regularly every year. The Modi-Putin meeting at the SCO Summit was cited as the reason for this.[6]
By comparison, in May and June 2022, the leaders and foreign ministers of the three countries came together to deliver messages based on “multipolarity.” During this period, the Indian and Chinese authorities successfully concluded the 16th round of talks on border issues, easing tensions at the border. However, in September of the same year, the practice of bilateral and trilateral talks between Russia, India and China declined. For example, Modi and Jinping met neither at the SCO Summit nor at the G20 Leaders’ Summit on November 15-16, 2022. Due to this lack of communication, trust issues between India and China came to resurface and border conflicts broke out.
Russia has historically not interfered in the problems between India and China. Moscow, which in recent years had been quite willing to cooperate with the two countries based on multipolarity, has driven New Delhi and Beijing away from itself when it decided to continue its war in Ukraine in line with its interests. Thus, the Moscow factor that brought New Delhi and Beijing together disappeared and the two countries started to clash with each other again. Both India and China can’t end their cooperation with Russia. However, it is very difficult for India and China to come together without Russia.
[1]“The Russia-India-China Trilateral After Ukraine: Will Beijing Take the Lead?”, Jamestown, https://jamestown.org/program/the-russia-india-china-trilateral-after-ukraine-will-beijing-take-the-lead/, (Date of Accession: 15.12.2022).
[2]“No Nuclear Weapons over Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping Says, In Clear Message to Russia”, SCMP, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3198505/no-nuclear-weapons-over-ukraine-chinese-president-xi-jinping-says-clear-message-russia, (Date of Accession: 15.12.2022).
[3]“Ukraine: India Condemns Bucha Killings, Backs Probe”, Times of India, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/ukraine-india-backs-probe-as-russia-faces-outrage-for-mass-killings/articleshow/90671829.cms, (Date of Accession: 15.12.2022).
[4]“We Are Seeing Consequences of Ukraine Conflict: Jaishankar to Russian Counterpart”, Anı News, https://aninews.in/news/world/asia/we-are-seeing-consequences-of-ukraine-conflict-jaishankar-to-russian-counterpart20221108191742/, (Date of Accession: 15.12.2022).
[5]“Weeks After Modi-Xi Handshakein Bali, India Says Its Ties with China Not Normal”, Deccan Herald, https://www.deccanherald.com/national/weeks-after-modi-xi-handshake-in-bali-india-says-its-ties-with-china-not-normal-1169705.html, (Date of Accession: 15.12.2022).
[6]“No Modi-Putin Summit This Year After They Met in September-Indian Govt Source”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/india-pm-modi-skip-annual-summit-with-russias-putin-et-now-2022-12-09/, (Date of Accession: 15.12.2022).
