On 20-26 September 2022, President of Moldova Maia Sandu visited the United States (US) to attend the 77th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). When Sandu returned to her country, she called the Moldovan Security Council to a meeting. It was also seen that, Sandu travelled to the US with North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in the same plane. This creates the impression that the parties have consulted on Russia’s regional policies. In her speech during the UN Meeting, Sandu expressed her national theses, which she had expressed since Moldova’s independence, with the following words:[1]
“The illegal presence of Russian troops in the region threatens our neutrality and increases risks to our country’s security. We want unconditional and complete withdrawal of Russian troops and the destruction of ammunition in warehouses in Cobasna, which poses a threat to the entire region.”
Although Sandu’s statement was not different from the previous discourses of the Chișinău administration, it had wide repercussions due to the situation in the international system due to the Russian-Ukrainian War. Because the Moscow administration carried out a military intervention in Ukraine and annexed various regions of this country in violation of international law. Moreover, the Kremlin is threatening to use nuclear weapons. This raises Moldova’s concerns about the Transnistria Issue. Because there are allegations that the Kremlin will try to solve this problem using military force.
Negotiations between the structure in the Transnistria Region and Moldova are currently frozen. This is because Chișinău is taking a break from talks with Tiraspol after the beginning of the Ukrainian War. That’s why, the Moldovan government chose to watch how things would evolve. Thus, Chișinău wanted to create pressure on Transnistria. The following statements Sandu used in her interview on September 28, 2022 have raised Tiraspol’s concerns:[2]
“I have always said that when a geopolitical opportunity arises, we must be prepared to resolve this conflict. When Ukraine wins the war, a geopolitical opportunity may arise. But our goal is to find a peaceful solution to conflict. And now I answer everyone who believes the time has come: The most important thing for us is to keep the peace on both the right and left banks of Transnistria.”
On the other hand, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov must also be remembered for saying that on 1 September 2022, they would accept any action that could be considered a threat to the security of Russian Peacekeepers as an attack on Russia.[3] Following Lavrov’s statement, former US European Forces Commander Ben Hodges said:[4]
“Perhaps it is time for Ukraine and Moldova to solve the Transnistria conflict. The Kremlin cannot stop this. Do the residents of Transnistria want to be chained to Russia? Or is there hope for a brighter future?”
As it can be understood, both Moscow and Tiraspol think that steps can be taken to resolve the Transnistria Issue in line with Chișinău’s expectations and are hesitant to do so. That is why Tiraspol implies that it is in favor of negotiating with Chișinău. In fact, the Kremlin supports it. However, Moldova does not want to meet with the leaders of the administration in Transnistria. In other words, Kisinev does not wish to establish a direct dialog, but to resolve all issues through the “Bureau of Reintegration”.[5]
Moldova seeks to achieve its goals toward Transnistria, particularly by taking advantage of the international conjuncture created by the Russian-Ukrainian War. That’s why, Sandu convened the Security Council on her return from the USA. In addition, Sandu made the following evaluations in her statement on the subject:[6]
“Moldovan citizens in the eastern regions of the Republic of Moldova are at risk of being involved in partial mobilization. To prevent such acts, we analyze the option of removing people with Russian passports from Moldovan citizenship, who will fight alongside Russia. We are also considering the possibility that more severe penalties will be imposed on Moldovan citizens who want to be mercenaries.”
Some of the residents of Transnistria are also Russian citizens. Therefore, Moldova-Russia and Moldova-Transnistria relations may deteriorate further if Moscow mobilizes the region in question. Chișinău opposes the scenario for two reasons. The first is that an initiative in this direction will mean a violation of Moldova’s sovereignty. The second is that Kiev is an ally of Chișinău. Therefore, Moldova considers it unacceptable for its citizens to fight for the Russian Army.
On the other hand, if Transnistrian government sends people living in the region to the war to support Russia, it is possible that the region will become a target of the Ukrainian Army. Whereas, Kiev is both a guarantor and a mediator in the Transnistria Issue. However, it is also known that the presence of Russian Peacekeeping Forces in the region is disturbing Ukraine.
The Kremlin understands that the region is far from the Russian border and therefore difficult to defend. Moreover, the deterioration of the current status quo could create an equation that is contrary to the interests of Russia. Despite this, the Kremlin’s intervention in the Transnistria region remains a possibility. But such a move requires Russian forces to control Odessa, which is located in the southwest of Ukraine. In this case, Moscow can intervene in Transnistria, annex it and define it as its own territory. But given the balances on the field, it is likely that this possibility is weak.
As a result, Government of Moldova stopped the negotiations on the solution of Transnistria Question and decided to wait for the course of the Ukraine War. If Russia’s losses increase, it can be foreseen that Chișinău will want to move with Kiev and the West to turn status quo in the region in its favor. In the opposite scenario, Russia may try to annex Transnistria depending on the areas it controls in the southwestern part of Ukraine.
[1] “Санду призвала с трибуны ООН вывести российские войска, незаконно размещенные в Приднестровском регионе”, JurnalTV, https://www.jurnaltv.md/news/cd3725c38431984f/sandu-prizvala-s-tribuny-oon-vyvesti-rossiyskie-voyska-nezakonno-razmeshchennye-v-pridnestrovskom-regione.html/, (Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).
[2] “Победа Украины может поспособствовать решению проблемы Приднестровья-президент Молдовы”, Evropeyskaya Pravda, https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/rus/news/2022/09/28/7147708/, (Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).
[3] “Лавров заявил, что действия против миротворцев в Приднестровье будут считаться нападением на РФ”, Tass, https://www.interfax.ru/russia/860242, (Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).
[4] “Генерал Ходжес: Возможно, пора Украине и Молдове решить приднестровский вопрос”, Evropeyskaya Pravda, https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/rus/news/2022/09/4/7146141/, (Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).
[5] “Лавров заявил, что Россия следит за интересами русскоязычных в Молдове: реакция Кишинёва”, SP, https://esp.md/ru/sobytiya/2022/09/01/lavrov-zayavil-chto-rossiya-sledit-za-interesami-russkoyazychnyh-v-moldove#, (Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).
[6] “Санду пригрозила лишить гражданства молдаван, которые будут воевать на стороне России”, Tass, https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/15866543?utm_source=google.com&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=google.com&utm_referrer=google.com, (Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).
