While energy resources occupy an important place in terms of interests in bilateral and multiple relations between states; states in need of energy are trying to take strategic steps towards certain geographies. In the 21st century, the South Caucasus stands out as one of these geographies.
The South Caucasus has become more regionally important due to the Belt-Road Project, natural gas pipelines, the discovery of Baku oil, the Russian-Ukrainian war and the energy crisis that emerged with the war. For this reason, there is a change in the attitude of many Western countries towards the region or their current interest in the region increases. The situation in question has brought with it the possibility that the newly established Italian Government, as a development that has the potential to disrupt the balances within the European Union (EU), may attempt to revitalize the old Italy and become an effective regional power.
Elections held in Italy showed that right-wing ideology strengthened with the appointment of Giorgia Meloni as Prime Minister. Claims that the new government will be the most right-wing government established in Italy after the Second World War[1] while being among the new cabinet, established in October 2022, received a vote of confidence from the Italian Parliament without difficulty.[2]
Meloni, in her statements from the first day, revealed that he will work for Italy to become an effective actor again in the EU and in the international system. Despite this, Meloni declared that she did not sympathize with anti-democratic regimes, including fascism, and that Italy would not conflict with the EU during his tenure; On the contrary, she stated that she would be committed to it.[3]
This attitude of Meloni, instead of an Italy that comes to mind with the EU; means that it will adopt the effort to be an actor that plays an active role and has a say in the organization. This, in turn, increases the possibility of the member states participating in a regional conflict, especially regarding the South Caucasus. It is thought that there may be a rivalry on the Rome-Paris line here.
While it is noteworthy that Italy used expressions that would contradict France with its attitude towards the region; the decision taken in the French National Assembly in November 2022 confirms this. Because, in the content of the resolution, a perspective regarding the Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has been put forward and it has been stated that Azerbaijan is an “occupant” country. In this context, it is aimed to take steps such as strengthening the Armenian Army, which was weakened after the Second Karabakh War, and undertaking mediation.[4]
The Armenian diaspora also has an impact on France’s South Caucasus policy. This effect causes Paris to be positioned on an anti-Baku line. This may lead to the rupture of relations between Paris and Baku in the future. If Azerbaijan stays between France and Italy, it is possible to bring Italy to the fore. For example, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Italy, Antonio Tajani, on November 21, 2022, both the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, Jeyhun Bayramov[5] and with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan[6] made phone calls an important development. These meetings revealed Rome’s interest in the South Caucasus.
While Tajani emphasized the importance of strategic partnership in his meeting with Bayramov; The parties decided to develop bilateral relations and energy cooperation within the framework of the “Joint Declaration on Strengthening Multidimensional Strategic Partnership Between Azerbaijan and Italy.” In addition, relations in the field of education were also discussed in the meeting of the two ministers. In addition, after the meeting, it was announced that Tajani wanted to visit Baku. On the other hand, in his meeting with Mizoyan, Tajani evaluated the development of economic and commercial relations and the negotiation process in the Karabakh conflict. The biggest difference between the two meetings held by the Italian Minister is the emphasis on the importance of the Southern Gas Corridor and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) in this context in terms of relations between Azerbaijan and Italy. Therefore, Italy attaches great importance to Azerbaijan in terms of energy policies.
Another actor in the South Caucasus is Georgia. At this point, it should be reminded that during the election campaign of Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili as an independent candidate in 2018, it was revealed that she was a French citizen.[7] However, Italy is one of the leading countries supporting Georgia’s integration into the European Union (EU). As a matter of fact, Mario Perantoni, Head of Legal Affairs of the Italian House of Representatives at the time, stated in his statement in May 2022 that they support Georgia’s membership. Moreover, Perantoni stated that they agreed with Anri Okhanashvili, the President of the Georgian Parliament at the time, on this issue.[8]
The importance of the South Caucasus for Rome comes to the fore mainly with its energy corridor dimension. In this context, it can be said that the Southern Gas Corridor, consisting of the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) and TAP, is of importance. The key actor of the Southern Gas Corridor is Azerbaijan.[9] In particular, the energy crisis due to the Russia-Ukraine War has increased the importance of the Southern Gas Corridor for Western actors. For this reason, Italy has increased its interest in the region.
Moreover, the EU also maintains its interest in the region. For example, in terms of Azerbaijan-EU relations, it should be reminded that Bayramov and the EU High Representative for Foreign Relations and Security Policy Joseph Borrell met on 1 December 2022. In this meeting, Borrell drew attention to the need to accelerate the negotiations on the Baku-Yerevan line within the framework of the Karabakh conflict,[10] demonstrating the importance it attaches to the security of the energy supply.
As a result, it can be said that the new Italian Government will adopt a different path than the past and will carry its position to higher levels both in the international order and within the EU. This situation will also be reflected in the South Caucasus with the effect of the energy crisis that emerged with the Russia-Ukraine War. The region can witness the rivalry between Italy and France.
[1] “Giorgia Meloni: Italy’s Far-Right Wins Election and Vows to Govern for All”, BBC News, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63029909.amp, (Date of Accession: 01.12.2022).
[2] “Italy’s New Cabinet Wins Final Confidence Vote”, XinguaNet, https://english.news.cn/20221027/334164b8399e4d8b99560cb9a02c99a8/c.html, (Date of Accession: 01.12.2022).
[3] “Giorgia Meloni Rejects Fascism and Embraces EU in First Speech”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-prime-minister-giorgia-meloni-fascism-eu-first-speech/amp/, (Date of Accession: 01.12.2022).
[4] “French National Assembly Unanimously Adopts Resolution in Support of Armenia”, News.Am, https://news.am/eng/news/732798.html, (Date of Accession: 01.12.2022).
[5] “Azerbaycan’ın Harici İşler Naziri ile İtaliya’nın Baş nazirinin Müavini Arasında Telefon Danışığı Olub”, Azerbaycan: Resmi Dövlet Qazeti, https://www.azerbaijan-news.az/az/posts/detail/azerbaycanin-xarici-isler-naziri-ile-italiyanin-bas-nazirinin-muavini-arasinda-telefon-danisigi-olub-1669050580, (Date of Accession: 01.12.2022).
[6] “Armenian, Italian FMs Discuss the Activities of the EU Observation Mission in Armenia”, ArmenPress, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1097814/, (Date of Accession: 01.12.2022).
[7] “Salome Zurabishvilma Safrangetis Moqalaqeoba Datova”, Net Gazeti, https://netgazeti.ge/news/301330/, (Date of Accession: 01.12.2022).
[8] “Italian Parliament Official: Georgia’s EU Integration Deserves “Strong Support” of Italy”, Agenda.Ge, https://agenda.ge/en/news/2022/1596, (Date of Accession: 01.12.2022).
[9] The European Union’s relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan, European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS), Brussels, November 2022, p. 113.
[10] “Obusdjenı Voprosı Sotrudnichestva Mejdu Azerbaidjanom I ES v Raslichnix Sferax”, AzerTac, https://azertag.az/ru/xeber/Obsuzhdeny_voprosy_sotrudnichestva_mezhdu_Azerbaidzhanom_i_ES_v_razlichnyh_sferah-2393891, (Date of Accession: 01.12.2022).
