Energy security has become a vital dependency from diplomacy to industrial investments, from housing consumption to military technologies. Among the energy sources consumed in the world, hydrocarbon fuels are certain to remain important for a long period of time due to their high energy efficiency, feasibility, storable and easily transportable conditions. While the popularity of green energy and the increase in investments in this field cannot be ignored, when the World Energy Agency reports and scenarios are taken into account, there is a long time before neutral carbon targets or full storage systems become widespread.
European countries are heavily dependent on Russia in the oil and natural gas markets. Russia’s strategies of using energy as a “political tool” have led Europe to search for alternative energy sources and transportation routes. In the post-Cold War period, the opening of Central Asian and Caspian Basin resources to Western companies supported the transportation of these resources to consumption centers through Turkey. This process enabled Europe to diversify its energy resources and to have secure transportation routes. Turkey’s geopolitical position and its status as an important energy market have made it a bridge and terminal between source countries and Europe. This places Turkey at the center of regional oil policies and strategies. Turkey plays a key role in the transportation of hydrocarbon resources between source countries and Europe to world markets, and its contribution to security of supply is of vital importance for Europe.[1]
However, even if the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian War that started in 2022 had temporarily devastating effects for Europe, these effects seem to have diminished in 2024. Even though the sudden increase in energy prices pushed the Consumer Price Index in the Eurozone up to 10.6% on an annual basis, it fell by 2.5% in July 2024.[2] It is crucial to use economic data to understand its impact on citizens. The reasons for this, as will be discussed in the next paragraph, will lead to elections and, with it, fundamental policy changes.
First of all, it is necessary to evaluate the region well without analyzing the risks. In addition to the Russia-Ukraine Crisis that has been going on for more than two years the Israel-Hamas War which has been going on for nearly a year, directly affects the world economy in regional and global terms. The Houthis’ targeting of tankers shipping to the Red Sea via the Gulf of Aden affects supply chains from energy security norms. In addition, the European Union (EU) imposed price ceilings as a result of energy sanctions. In recent months, the ceasefire talks in Qatar and the Ukrainian-Russian peace talks initiatives undertaken by Turkey have cooled the region. However, a stable price has been achieved in Brent oil since May 2024.[3] Although there are risks to the continuity of these diplomatic steps, it is now seen that the reactions in energy prices due to security concerns have diminished.
In terms of security, events in the region proceed on an impact-response equation. As a result of the EU’s economic sanctions in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine War, the US regulates oil and natural gas prices. In 2022, US oil production averaged 11,022 thousand barrels/day on a monthly basis, increasing to 13252 thousand barrels/day in the first half of 2024.[4] Here, Russia’s energy bridges with Europe were thrown away with the war, creating a new power-building opportunity for the US. As for natural gas, the EU’s share of LNG imports to the US, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG), is projected to increase from 17% in 2023 to 20% in 2024.[5]
It is certain that the basis of a possible ceasefire negotiations will now be mechanisms to prevent Russia’s return to Europe in energy. In addition, despite Turkey playing a key role in energy supply for the EU, the fact that serious investments have been made in Greece in recent years with the change in political equations, signals that a new tension between Turkey and Greece may arise over energy and economy. The ongoing LNG terminal projects in Greece, the allocation of serious EU funds under the name of green energy transformation and the initiation of new energy routes projects are among the biggest evidence that can be shown in this sense.
In the African region, France’s diminishing sphere of influence in the Central Sahara region with its series of coups d’etats is seen as being filled by Russian and Chinese moves. In addition to the economic value of the region, which is particularly rich in uranium deposits, its importance in terms of rare earth elements plays a key role in nuclear energy. We see another reflection of geopolitical tensions in rare earth elements, which are of great importance especially in energy technologies (solar panels, charging stations, electric vehicles, etc.). It can be said that countries are in active competition in this field. The Lithium Triangle region is known to meet 54% of the global lithium need.[6] The fact that China has invested heavily in the region and acquired the rights to operate many mines will emerge as a new area of struggle with Trump’s victory in the elections to be held in November this year.
[1] Ayşegül GÜLER. (2024). “Avrupa Enerji Arz Güvenliği Sağlanmasında Türkiye’nin Stratejik Önemi”. KMÜ Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 26(46), 455.
[2] “Euro Bölgesi-Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi (TÜFE) (Yıllık)”, Investing, https://tr.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-68, (Date of Access: 09.07.2024).
[3] “Brent Petrol”, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberght.com/emtia/brent-petrol, (Date of Access: 09.07.2024).
[4] “U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)”, U.S. Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m, (Date of Access: 09.07.2024).
[5] “US LNG supply continues to dominate European imports in 2024.”, Explore S&P Global, https://t.ly/7z74U, (Date of Access: 09.07.2024).
[6] Ellsworth Dickson (2017). “South America’s prospective – The Lithium Triangle”. Resource World. Retrieved 7 December 2019.
