Russia’s Central Asian policy and its interests in Afghanistan complement each other. In Central Asia, there are three countries neighboring Afghanistan. These are Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. The point that creates a dilemma or difficulty for Russia is that Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have different views on the Afghanistan-Taliban issue. While Uzbekistan is trying to prevent radical groups originating from Afghanistan from infiltrating its country and Central Asia by maintaining its relations with the Taliban; It is considered that Tajikistan is in a front struggling against the Taliban. Russia, in general, is concerned that instability in Afghanistan could spread to Central Asia and undermine economic-political and security relations with the regional states. The following can be mentioned in the first stage if you need to talk about the strategic importance of Uzbekistan and then Tajikistan for Russia.
Uzbekistan
Russia’s approach to Uzbekistan can be discussed primarily from a geostrategic perspective. The relevant country aims to provide safe transit to the Indo-Pacific region through Afghanistan. Therefore, Tashkent tries to keep its relations with the Taliban positive. Providing humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, Uzbekistan wishes to ensure regional security in return. Uzbekistan’s Afghanistan policy can also affect Russia’s interests in the region.
Considering Afghanistan in particular, Russia’s interest in Uzbekistan among the Central Asian countries is increasing. The main reason for this, unlike Tajikistan, Russia does not have a military base in Uzbekistan. This situation increases the security concerns in Russia. To put it more clearly, Russia is concerned that religious groups in Afghanistan pose a threat to both Central Asia and its borders through Uzbekistan. Hence, Russia, together with Uzbekistan, wishes to expand its military cooperation against fundamentalist organizations. However, Tashkent’s continuous postponement of being a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is seen as an important obstacle for Russia to increase its military influence in the region. However, it can be said that Russia plans to increase the military activities of the CSTO to balance the increasing Chinese influence in the region. Accordingly, it can be predicted that Moscow will increase its military cooperation with Uzbekistan and focus on the security of the border region to prevent threats originating from Afghanistan and to balance China. In this context, it can be predicted that Russia will increase the pressure on Uzbekistan to become a member of the CSTO again. Because China is increasing its military-security moves in Uzbekistan and its framework, which assumed the SCO term presidency. It can be said that Russia will try to attract Uzbekistan to itself in this strategic competition and will try to establish the security of the region through this country. In addition to the CSTO and security issues, it can be predicted that Russia will increase its political pressure on Uzbekistan. Thanks to the branding established through diplomatic channels, it can be said that Moscow will try to prevent Tashkent from developing political and economic cooperation with regional and global actors other than itself.
For instance, Uzbekistan’s increasing contacts with the Taliban may cause Russia to worry about its Central Asian policies. In addition, the fact that Tashkent is not yet a member of the CSTO poses a challenge in shaping Russia’s Afghanistan policy. The fact that Tashkent is a member of the CSTO will also greatly affect its foreign policy toward Afghanistan. So, the Taliban considers the membership of Uzbekistan in the CSTO as a worrying development. As a result, it can be foreseen that tensions may arise between both sides. While trying to establish regional security through military cooperation with Russia, Uzbekistan, on the other hand, aims to resolve security issues with the Taliban diplomatically.
Tajikistan
It is frequently stated that Tajikistan supports the anti-Taliban axis in Afghanistan. Due to Dushenbe’s relations with the anti-Taliban front, the political tension between the Tajik Government and the Taliban continues. While threats arising from fundamentalist groups in Afghanistan disturb Tajikistan on the one hand, they also create an opportunity for Russia to intervene in the region. In other words, it can be claimed that Russia is trying to increase its military and political influence in both Uzbekistan and Tajikistan by citing the instability in Afghanistan.
As in the case of Uzbekistan, Russia’s military activities toward Tajikistan in the context of Central Asia are getting stronger. This military cooperation leads Dushanbe to become more attached to Moscow. Russia’s increase in military activities in Tajikistan within the framework of its policy towards Afghanistan is not only limited to this country but also affects Central Asian countries. That is to say, Moscow may want to carry out its Central Asian policy strongly through Tajikistan. In addition, there is still a risk that China will increase its military presence in both Tajikistan and Central Asia in the future. Russia claims that it has taken security measures against the rise of the Taliban. However, the main reason for this existence may be to limit the growing Chinese influence. Russia is trying to prevent its regional rivals, especially China, and other global powers from penetrating other parts of Central Asia through Tajikistan.
Tajikistan pays attention to developing multilateral cooperation to ensure the political balance between regional powers and at the same time focuses on military activities to ensure the security of the border region with Afghanistan. Moscow is increasing its activities in the field of education as well as military activities in Tajikistan. While Moscow strengthens its military influence, on the other hand, it tries to instill the Russian language and culture in the younger generations in Tajikistan. In this context, it is desired to revive this culture by establishing Russian schools and Russian language classes in Tajikistan with the funding of Moscow.
Increasing Tajikistan-Taliban tension in the context of Afghanistan affects the competition of global and regional powers, especially Russia and China. Using the fight against the Taliban as an excuse, Russia may try to direct its Afghanistan policy through Tajikistan and expand its military activities in this country as well as in Uzbekistan. It is a question mark how much the thousands of soldiers trained by Russia in Tajikistan within the scope of CSTO exercises and military training support will contribute to regional stability.
The fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin made his first foreign visit to Tajikistan after the Russia-Ukraine War that started on February 24 reveals the importance of Dushanbe in the eyes of Moscow. It raises concerns that after Ukraine, Russia will shift its focus to Central Asia and Afghanistan in the context of Tajikistan. This situation may indicate that the rivalry between Russia and China will gain momentum this time on the Tajikistan-Afghanistan axis.
In conclusion, given the geopolitics of Afghanistan, Russia needs to interact with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, primarily in terms of security and then economics. It is also possible to evaluate this in terms of geopolitical competition with China. It is frequently mentioned that the New Great Game has begun in the context of Afghanistan. One of these actors is China. The actor, which has established activities in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, will be able to control the problems of Afghanistan and Central Asia. Uzbekistan, assuming the SCO Term Presidency, also leads the way in solving security problems originating from Afghanistan. In this crisis, Tajikistan is a critical actor that needs to be won in terms of its relations with the anti-Taliban front. In this sense, the actor who won Tajikistan will largely shape the future of Afghanistan. The fact that Russia is excluded from the said geopolitical competition is not only for China; It will cause India and other regional actors to gain power. At a time when Beijing and New Delhi are enhancing their interest in Afghanistan, the presence of Russia in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan is considered by Russian policymakers as a balancing factor against these powers.
