On April 17, 2024, Politico Magazine published an article titled “Ukraine is heading for Defeat”, which reveals a reality that all of Europe fears to face.[1] According to it, the failure of the West to send arms to Kiev is helping Russia win this war. This delay on the Western front is setting the stage for the demotivation of Ukrainian soldiers to fight and a clear defeat in the war.
The poor morale of the Ukrainian Army, Russia’s continued bombardment, the failure to deliver urgently needed air defense systems and the casualties on the battlefield make it clear that the situation is not promising for Kiev and the West.
On April 18, 2024, an article published in the Financial Times titled “Ukraine’s desperate need for air defense” drew attention to the difficult situation of the Ukrainian Army and made a comparison with Israel’s systems.[2] Israel’s high-tech air defenses and help from its allies have disabled almost all of Iran’s more than 300 drones and missiles.
On the other hand, Russia’s aerial bombardment of Ukraine continues to inflict massive damage. In this sense, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) understandably wants to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia and therefore cannot directly support Ukraine’s defense, as it did in the case of Israel. Instead, Western powers are being asked to provide Ukraine with their own defense systems to shoot down Russian rockets.
An article published on April 18, 2024 in Social Europe Magazine titled “Ukraine is losing and the West faces a difficult choice” warns that if the West does not help now, it will face a resurgent and aggressive Russia.[3] The possibility of Ukraine losing the war was also mentioned by General Sir Richard Barrons, former commander of the UK Joint Forces Command, in an interview with the BBC on April 13, 2024. [4] Barrons said that Ukraine could lose the war in 2024, “Because Ukraine may feel that it cannot win… And when it comes down to it, why would people want to fight and die more just to defend something that is indefensible?”[5]
The option of Ukraine negotiating with Russia to end the war is now also being mentioned by Western leaders. The fact that Ukraine is running low on manpower, equipment and ammunition to hold the line against Russia suggests that the front may soon collapse. As the situation on the battlefield gradually shifts in Russia’s favor, the West may be forced to take radical new decisions. The most optimistic outcome is that Western allies will rapidly increase their military support to Ukraine. This could include ammunition, air defense systems, armored vehicles and drones. The most pessimistic outcome is the sudden collapse of a significant part of the Ukrainian defense lines. Otherwise, Russia is unlikely to make any major progress in the foreseeable future.
Nevertheless, Russia’s doubling of its attacks on Ukraine’s critical industries and infrastructure appears to be a strategy to completely destroy the country’s defense capacity. The emerging picture is that Ukraine is heading towards losing the war. While President Volodymyr Zelensky says Ukraine is trying to find a way to hold its ground, military officials acknowledge that further losses this summer are inevitable. Without a major shift in the supply of advanced Western weapons and cash, Ukraine is unlikely to be able to liberate the areas currently held by Russia’s forces. This means that the West must take real responsibility for winning the war in Ukraine.
Due to the depletion of the Ukrainian forces’ ammunition and air defense capabilities, many Ukrainian cities are expected to fall soon. Almost the entire West has come to accept the fact that the counter-offensive launched by the Ukrainian Army in June 2023 ended in failure. Was the failure of the counter-offensive due to strategy, as the Americans claim, or to equipment, as the Ukrainians counter-claim? This is another question mark. There is a third option. That both factors were at play. In other words, both the strategy failed and the equipment was inadequate. Another important factor is the performance of the Russian Army. All these factors suggest that 2024 has reached a breaking point in terms of the Russian-Ukrainian War. It is clear that the Western world needs a new strategy for the struggle in Ukraine. If the Ukrainian issue is not resolved, it will accelerate the process of the collapse of the West from within.
[1] “Ukraine is heading for defeat”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/why-ukraine-losing-russia-war/, (Date of Access: 19.04.2024).
[2] “Ukraine’s desperate need for air defences”, Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/909b47dc-b7ee-435b-a7ae-7c045af7677a, (Date of Access: 19.04.2024).
[3] “Ukraine is losing and the west faces a stark choice”, Social Europe, https://www.socialeurope.eu/ukraine-is-losing-and-the-west-faces-a-stark-choice, (Date of Access: 19.04.2024).
[4] Ibid.
[5] Ibid.
