German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk met at the Berlin Summit on 15 March 2024 and pledged further support for Ukraine’s war against Russia.[1] The Berlin Summit took place at a time when European powers were threatening to start an all-out war between NATO and Russia in Ukraine. Just two weeks before this summit, on 26 February 2024, at the Paris Summit, Macron said that NATO forces did not exclude the possibility of sending ground troops to Ukraine to fight Russia.[2]
At their joint press conference, Scholz, Macron and Tusk promised to jointly purchase, manufacture and supply arms for Ukraine, to establish arms factories in Ukraine, to send long-range artillery to Ukraine and to send more military trainers to Ukraine. On the subject, Macron said the following:[3]
“The three of us share the same will. We are willing, coordinated and ready to do something… Today’s meeting is an opportunity for us to reinforce our unity. We would also like to say that in the context of the Weimar Triangle (the official name for the talks between Berlin, Paris and Warsaw) all three of us are on the same page.”
Two days before this meeting, on 13 March 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in an interview on state television, again threatened the West with the possible use of nuclear weapons. In recent days, the Kremlin has repeatedly threatened that if NATO attacks Russian targets or engages in combat with its ground troops, it is ready to take massive retaliatory action, including the possible use of nuclear weapons. In response, it is noteworthy that Scholz, Macron and Tusk met in Berlin and gave a message of unity against Russia. Behind the scenes, leading Western actors, notably Germany, France and Poland, are allegedly making far-reaching plans that could lead to a direct confrontation with nuclear power Russia.[4]
The United States of America (USA) and the United Kingdom are keen for Ukraine to deepen its war against Russia and for continental Europe to increase its support for Kiev in this regard. One of the latest issues that Europe is discussing in order to continue the war in Ukraine is the establishment of a common military industrial complex. While France has long advocated for Europe to declare its own strategic autonomy, especially in defence policy, Germany is more keen to maintain security ties with the United States.
Germany has become Ukraine’s second largest arms supplier after the United States, while France ranks 14th by far.[5] It is because of this inability that the Paris administration argues that Europe must act together to provide more defence support to Kiev. Europe is aware of what needs to be done, but is struggling to take concrete action.
France continues to keep on the agenda the option of deploying NATO troops in Ukraine to fight against Russia. Due to Macron’s harsh statements on Ukraine, Russia has started to target France this time. For example, Macron reiterated that he is ready to send troops to Ukraine if Russia approaches Kiev or Odesa.[6] France is building an alliance of countries potentially favourable to sending Western troops to Ukraine.[7] French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné travelled to Lithuania to discuss these issues, where he met with his Baltic and Ukrainian counterparts and promoted the idea that foreign troops could help Ukraine in areas such as demining.
In addition to France’s efforts, the most controversial issue in Germany’s military support to Ukraine is the supply of Taurus missiles. To date, the UK, France and the US have provided the Ukrainian Armed Forces with powerful long-range missiles to counter Russia. However, the Ukrainian Army is more interested in German-made Taurus systems.[8] Germany, on the other hand, is concerned that these missiles could deepen the war in Ukraine and wants to reprogramme them to shorten their range. Berlin, which currently refuses to supply the missiles to Ukraine, is concerned that Kiev could escalate tensions by striking targets in Russia.
For months, Scholz has resisted internal and external pressure to supply Ukraine with German-made Taurus cruise missiles, a precision, long-range munition.[9] Desperate to help an increasingly besieged Ukraine, some allies have drawn up plans that are expected to help change Germany’s mind. David Cameron, the British Foreign Secretary, has hinted that he is open to a plan to have Germany send Taurus missiles to the UK, which would allow the UK to send more Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine.
The slowdown in arms supplies to Ukraine in recent months has mobilised European actors, notably the UK. While Poland initially distanced itself from France’s proposals, it can be said that the Polish-French-German alliance has been revitalised with the UK’s intervention. The fact that Poland and Germany, in particular, did not exclude France’s proposals on Ukraine, on the contrary, they gave a message of unity may mean the expansion of the coalition formed against Russia.
[1] “Leaders of Germany, France, Poland meet to mend rifts over Ukraine war”, AlJazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/15/leaders-of-germany-france-poland-meet-to-mend-rifts-over-ukraine-war, (Date of Access: 16.03.2024).
[2] Same place.
[3] “Germany, France and Poland pledge to escalate war with Russia at Berlin summit”, WSWS, https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2024/03/16/ippw-m16.html, (Date of Access: 16.03.2024).
[4] “Ukraine war: Europe split clouds Macron talks with Scholz in Berlin”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68573441, (Date of Access: 16.03.2024).
[5] “‘Germany and France are drawing two completely different conclusions from the war in Ukraine’”, Lemonde, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2024/03/10/germany-and-france-are-drawing-two-completely-different-conclusions-from-the-war-in-ukraine_6604289_23.html, (Date of Access: 21.02.2024).
[6] “Macron Ready to Send Troops to Ukraine if Russia Approaches Kyiv or Odesa”, Kyivpost, https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29194, (Date of Access: 12.03.2024).
[7] “France finds Baltic allies in its spat with Germany over Ukraine troop deployment”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/france-finds-baltic-allies-in-its-spat-with-germany-over-ukraine-aid-sikorski-nato-macron-troops-war/, (Date of Access: 12.03.2024).
[8] “Why Germany’s Taurus is Europe’s most-wanted long-range missile”, FT, https://www.ft.com/content/09f2ec36-de20-4ea2-abf2-49f70275c521, (Date of Access: 12.03.2024).
[9] “Why Germany is reluctant to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine”, Economist, https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2024/03/12/why-germany-is-reluctant-to-send-taurus-missiles-to-ukraine, (Erişim Date of Access: 12.03.2024).
